We’ve previously covered, rather extensively, the legitimacy of the Houston Rockets‘ 2014-15 title pursuit.
However, the Rockets have had the 24th “strongest” schedule in the league in which they’ve faced only five of the top-10 defenses in the league (per points per game allowed) — the Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Memphis Grizzlies, and the Golden State Warriors.
Even though their 14-4 start to the season seems to have come as a direct result of Daryl Morey’s “Moreyball” system, the Rockets have sustained a great defense and offense with some of their best weapons on the injury list. Also, several lucky breaks here and there have helped them keep their team firing on all levels.
Who would’ve thought that, eighteen games into the season this would be the Rockets’ most successful three-man combination:
| Net (Per 100 Poss) | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Lineup | MP | FG% | 3P% | eFG% | FT% | PTS | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF |
| 1 | T. Ariza | J. Harden | D. Motiejunas | 296:23 | +.029 | +.075 | +.066 | -.043 | +10.3 | +2.3 | +2.3 | +3.1 | -0.4 | +1.6 | -0.5 | +0.3 | +0.9 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/4/2014.
For example, Tarik Black has started seven games over Dwight Howard and the Rockets have allowed an average of 95.5 points in each of them. Donatas Motiejunas has started 12 games over Terrence Jones and the Rockets have scored an average of 103.3 points per game.
Trevor Ariza has surpassed (by a mile or two) league’s expectations and is averaging the third-highest point per game average of his 10-year career (13.7).
However, with Howard, Jones and Patrick Beverley out indefinitely, the following “what ifs” surround the Rockets pursuit of the NBA title.
1. What if the threes stop falling?
The Rockets are 14th in the league in three-point percentage (35.1), however, they lead the league in three-point attempts (34.4) and three-pointers made (12.1) per game. This means that roughly 37 percent of their 97.9 points per game are coming from beyond the arc.
If the Rockets were to regress on this specific category and stumble beyond the NBA’s last place in three-point percentage (worse than 29.9 percent) and end up at 25 percent, they would score 10 fewer points per game which is more than enough to break their high-octane offense and turn their +4.9 Point Differential into a -5.1 (eighth worst in the NBA).
Note: Trevor Ariza is shooting 47.5% (!!!) from beyond the arc ON THE ROAD.
2. What if Dwight Howard misses eight more games out of the next 18?
The Rockets have the league’s best defense per points per game allowed (93.0) and the fourth best in Opponent Field goal Percentage (27.9 percent). Most of it as a result of Dwight Howard’s Defensive Rating of 95.
The Rockets’ defense, through Howard’s injury, has taken a slight step back not only in points per game allowed — from 91.6 points per game with him to 95.5 without him — but also in Opponent Field Goal Percentage — from 39.9 percent to 44.5 percent.
Assuming Howard misses eight games out of the next 18, and the Rockets’ defense were to backslide steadily, the team would be allowing 99.4 points per game in a devastating Opponent Field Goal Percentage of 49.1%.
Fortunately for the Rockets, even though it is highly unlikely for 23-year-old rookie Tarik Black to sustain his remarkable defense for the remainder of the season, it is great to know that he’s able to replace Howard if his injury were to come back further down the road.
The injury-riddled Houston Rockets have struck gold with some of their offseason gambles and, once again, Daryl Morey has proved to be arguably the best general manager in the league.
Once Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones and Patrick Beverley return from injury, the Rockets could join the time-bending San Antonio Spurs as one of the deepest teams in the league.
The Rockets have used eight different starting lineups for the season and have succeeded, at least once, with every one of them but one. A ten-deep roster for the team should be very scary for the rest of the league.
Yes, as of right now there’s a lot of things that have gone the Rockets way throughout the season, but what if they stop?