Los Angeles Clippers: Did The Clippers Really Regress?
Analysts, writers, and NBA fans alike have watched the Los Angeles Clippers “struggle” to an 8-5 record through the first part of the season, and wondered “What is wrong with the Clippers?”
After all, this was a team that was supposed to be competing for the No. 1 seed an a shot at the NBA Finals, but instead finds itself as the No. 8 seed in the hypothetical “if the playoffs started today” standings.
Using Basketball-Reference.com’s SRS, or simple-rating system, stat, the Clippers again find themselves in eighth place in the Western Conference. However, in the East, the Clippers would be second, behind only Eastern Conference top seed Toronto.
Other stats play out the same story, check out the top 10 teams using adjusted net rating, a way of using the margin of victory and point differential combined with strength of schedule to determine a team’s worth:
| Adjusted | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Conf | Div | W | L | W/L% | MOV/A | ORtg/A | DRtg/A | NRtg/A ▾ |
| 1 | Golden State Warriors | W | P | 11 | 2 | .846 | 11.19 | 108.85 | 97.43 | 11.41 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | W | NW | 11 | 3 | .786 | 9.87 | 111.86 | 101.24 | 10.62 |
| 3 | Toronto Raptors | E | A | 12 | 2 | .857 | 9.60 | 114.09 | 103.82 | 10.26 |
| 4 | Dallas Mavericks | W | SW | 10 | 5 | .667 | 8.85 | 117.83 | 108.30 | 9.53 |
| 5 | Memphis Grizzlies | W | SW | 12 | 2 | .857 | 6.95 | 109.15 | 101.70 | 7.46 |
| 6 | San Antonio Spurs | W | SW | 9 | 4 | .692 | 6.63 | 104.02 | 96.92 | 7.09 |
| 7 | Sacramento Kings | W | P | 9 | 5 | .643 | 6.42 | 111.62 | 104.68 | 6.94 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Clippers | W | P | 8 | 5 | .615 | 4.30 | 112.09 | 107.49 | 4.60 |
| 9 | New Orleans Pelicans | W | SW | 7 | 6 | .538 | 4.40 | 111.03 | 106.59 | 4.43 |
| 10 | Houston Rockets | W | SW | 11 | 3 | .786 | 2.84 | 103.03 | 99.65 | 3.38 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/26/2014.
Of the top 10 teams, nine are in the Western Conference, with the Clippers again at number eight. At this point, it is pretty clear that the Clippers have played as the seventh- or eighth-best team in the West, while they would rank at No. 2 in the East.
Not that surprising given the Western Conference’s dominance over the last couple of decades. Look at the same table at the end of last season:
| Adjusted | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Conf | Div | W | L | W/L% | MOV/A | ORtg/A | DRtg/A | NRtg/A ▾ |
| 1 | San Antonio Spurs | W | SW | 62 | 20 | .756 | 7.99 | 110.98 | 102.53 | 8.45 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Clippers | W | P | 57 | 25 | .695 | 7.27 | 112.88 | 105.33 | 7.56 |
| 3 | Oklahoma City Thunder | W | NW | 59 | 23 | .720 | 6.65 | 111.29 | 104.26 | 7.04 |
| 4 | Golden State Warriors | W | P | 51 | 31 | .622 | 5.15 | 107.93 | 102.59 | 5.34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | W | SW | 54 | 28 | .659 | 5.06 | 111.82 | 106.65 | 5.17 |
| 6 | Miami Heat | E | SE | 54 | 28 | .659 | 4.15 | 112.15 | 107.42 | 4.73 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | W | NW | 54 | 28 | .659 | 4.43 | 112.17 | 107.49 | 4.68 |
| 8 | Indiana Pacers | E | C | 56 | 26 | .683 | 3.63 | 104.25 | 100.42 | 3.83 |
| 9 | Dallas Mavericks | W | SW | 49 | 33 | .598 | 2.90 | 112.16 | 108.95 | 3.21 |
| 10 | Minnesota Timberwolves | W | NW | 40 | 42 | .488 | 3.10 | 109.40 | 106.25 | 3.15 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/26/2014.
A very different list, this time with the Clippers near the top, coming in at No. 2. Look at the ratings, though, and notice how much smaller they are? The same 7.56 rating would have Los Angeles barely hanging in at No. 5.
More from Hoops Habit
- The 5 most dominant NBA players who never won a championship
- 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
- Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
- Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
- Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
Notice also how the offensive rating is nearly identical, while the defensive rating has slipped ever so slightly, causing the drop from two to eight.
Those ratings at the top of the Western Conference look unsustainable, while the Clippers defense has been steadily improving the last few games. It is easy to see the top of the conference regressing backwards while the Clippers rise.
Even a slight improvement in defensive rating would send the Clippers and their ridiculously good offense back into the top four in the West.
It is easy to see teams like Golden State, Dallas, and Portland falling back into the pack after posting such inflated early season numbers, while it is also easy to assume that part of the Clippers trouble has been facing teams on abnormal hot streaks, such as Golden State.
Not that the Clippers did not show plenty of early season signs of regression, especially on defense, but most of that seemed to be a trickle down effect of unsustainable high three point shooting percentages by Clipper opponents.
Now that those percentages have started to decrease, the Clipper defense has moved back toward averageness from the unfathomably bad depths it was occupying.
Do not expect the teams at the top of the western conference to continue to play this well, and expect the Clippers to play better as the season rolls along. The more games played and the more analysis done on Los Angeles’ advanced statistics, the more Clipper-nation can breathe easy. This team will be right where we expect come April.