Cleveland Cavaliers: Is Kevin Love a Bad Fit?
Kevin Love hasn’t produced as expected for the Cleveland Cavaliers — is he a bad fit?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a mess. It’s not so much their record of 5-5, but a combination of how they’ve gotten to 5-5 and their forecast for the near future. Their defense is shoddy, LeBron James doesn’t look the same, the bench has disappointed and one of their prized offseason acquisitions — Kevin Love — looks like he’s a bad fit.
The 6-foot-10 power forward from Santa Monica, California was expected to be a star, as he would have the opportunity to play next to other stars for the first time in his career. He’s the ultimate stretch four, with the great combination of rebounding skill and 3-point shooting prowess. He throws great outlet passes and is an underrated passer — but it seems like that player hasn’t arrived in Cleveland yet.
Love had positioned himself as one of the best power forwards in the league in 2013-14, averaging 26.1 points, 12.5 rebounds and 4.4 assists with a respectable shooting line of .457/.376/.821 for the 40-win Minnesota Timberwolves.
Everybody knew that Love would have a downturn in his raw statistics, simply because he’s no longer “the man.” That’s exactly what’s happened, as Love is down to 16.7 points, 10.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. His shooting line of .389/.357/.833 is damning on it’s own, but it gets worse.
PLAYING BUT NOT PRODUCING LIKE A SHOOTER
Love hasn’t been the kind of player who’s going to curl off screens to catch-and-shoot from 15-feet, but he is a guy who has historically been solid from both outside the 3-point line and inside the paint. As Love’s career has gone on, he’s pushed himself further and further away from the basket.
In each of his seven professional seasons, he’s increased his average shot distance, from 7.1 feet in his rookie year to 12.3 in 2011-12 and finally at 15.0 feet this year. It’s not that he’s working on that mid-range game, either. His percentage of 2-point attempts has dropped in each of his seven seasons.
As of games completed on November 18th, Love is making just 41.5 percent of his 2-point attempts and just 52.2 percent inside three feet. After making 41.2 percent from 3-to-10 feet last season, Love is at 34.6 percent this year.
Love isn’t in the position where he’s putting up bad shots late in the shot clock, either. He takes 57.4 percent of his shots with 7-to-15 seconds left in the clock. He’s making just 35.1 percent of those looks.
The smoking gun here — as it relates to shooting — is that Love is getting 50.2 percent of his shots when he is open (closest defender four feet away or more) and he’s making just 39.4 percent of those shots.
We’re only 10 games in, so this should be considered a small sample size, but it highlights some serious issues. Love is evolving (or devolving, depending on perspective) as a player. Instead of the rebounding beast who also makes threes, he’s now a good defensive rebounder who is serviceable from the outside.
NOT MAKING TEAMMATES BETTER
One reason why the Cavs wanted to bring in a player like Love is so that he could stretch the floor and as a much improved passer, they hoped he could make a big impact in keeping the offensive flow going. Love has been good as an outlet passer, but he’s not having the same impact in the half-court offense.
Instead, Love’s assist percentage is at 11.1 percent — that’s less than Dion Waiters, for crying out loud! After averaging a career-high 4.4 assists in 2013-14, Love has nearly cut that in half and is at 2.6. One would think that if Love’s usage rate comes down and is paired with stars, that he’d be in position to pass more and his assists would show that.
Instead, it appears that he’s a high-priced decoy for many possessions. Not to come down on Waiters again, but Dion has a higher usage rate (22.1) than Love’s 20.5.
Through the first nine games of the season, Love has generated 44 points by assists (4.9 per game). Last season, he generated 741 in 77 games (9.6). Not having the ball in his hands consistently will do that, but it’s such a drop that it’s noticeable and relevant.
Lastly — and the worst number anyone could look at — is the fact that for the first time in six years, Love is having a negative effect on his team in terms of plus/minus per 100 possessions. After last season’s career-best plus-10.9, Love is a minus-6.3. Yes, that number implies that the team is better off with Love on the bench.
Am I going so far as to say Love isn’t a quality player? No. Am I going to say the Cavs are better off without him on the team? No. However, the numbers point towards Love simply being a bad fit. Perhaps it’s coach Blatt and his inability to put Love in a position to succeed, but as they say — numbers never lie, and the numbers say Love is a bad fit.
Stats taken from basketball-reference.com and NBA.com.