Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, MVP Candidate?

When talking about the Most Valuable Player race, we always get the usual suspects. We get the LeBron James‘, the Kevin Durant‘s on top of the ballot. We occasionally get a sleeper to win the award like Derrick Rose did a few years ago.

But the point remains: MVP voting is largely predictable, whether or not anybody wants to admit it.

There is no real race for it and sometimes, the legitimate “most valuable player” doesn’t come close to winning the award. It’s become more of a team award in recent years, since voters have the tendency to make the best player on the best team the MVP, whether or not another player was actually worth more to his team or not. That’s not a bad system, and we have had some very good MVP winners in the past. Are we in for another Derrick Rose situation this season?

I know Damian Lillard is not considered a favorite to win the MVP. Far from it, as very few consider Lillard to be a legitimate threat to even finish in the top five in voting. That’s unfortunate because that largely ignores just how good Lillard has been for the Portland Trail Blazers.

When the average fan thinks about the Blazers, they think about LaMarcus Aldridge first. That’s fair, as Aldridge has been the driving force for Portland for a very long time. To start this year, Damian Lillard has effectively been the engine for the Trail Blazers. That isn’t a knock on Aldridge, that’s just how good Lillard has been.

Damian Lillard has shown lots of improvement to start the year. In the past, Lillard was largely a one dimensional player, as he focused on offense all of the time. To start this year, however, Lillard has actually been paying attention to defense. And that isn’t the only improvement you see. Here are his regular stats for this year:

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/17/2014.

There’s quite a bit of improvement in a few key areas. Last year, Lillard only shot 42.4 percent from the floor, while only collecting 3.5 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game. This year, Lillard has upped those numbers. He is shooting 46.8 percent from the floor while getting a very high (for his position) 5.2 rebounds per game.

And although 6.6 assists per game isn’t at the top of his position, it’s still a nice improvement out of a player who’s style is more like a shooting guard’s than a true point guard.

Of course, regular stats only tell part of the story. Here are Lillard’s advanced numbers to start the year:

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/17/2014.

What jumps out to me are his Win Share (WS) numbers. He currently leads the league in Offensive Win Shares (OWS), as he has been one of the league’s best offensive weapons to start the year. His 0.4 Defensive Win Shares (DWS) don’t seem as impressive, but it goes to show that he is at least trying to play defense.

At this pace, Lillard would set his career high in Defensive Win Shares by quite a bit, as he is on pace for 3 Defensive Win Shares. His career high is only 1.8 in that category. Lillard’s Player Efficiency Rating of 23.5 is great, but could get better to warrant legitimate MVP discussions.

His True Shooting Percentage (TS%) is an ultra high 64.2 percent and he does keep his Assist Percentage (AST%) to more than double his Turnover Percentage (TOV%).

Unfortunately for Lillard, it’s very early on in the season. Any number of things could happen, and it’s likely that Lillard could see a drop in efficiency as the year goes on. Even with his numbers being as good as they are, he likely won’t get any real MVP attention unless the Blazers surprise everyone and win the West.

That’s unfortunate because Lillard has been on pace for a career year and should deserve some recognition for his amazing development.

Next: Portland Trail Blazers: Chris Kaman Has Been Impressive