The Toronto Raptors started last season with a record of just 6-12, but turned their season around when general manager Masai Ujiri shipped Rudy Gay to the Sacramento Kings.
Players responded immediately and the Raptors went on to win 10 of their next 13 on their way towards winning the Atlantic Division for the second time in franchise history.
Toronto would go on to a final record of 48-34, and narrowly miss advancing to the second round of the playoffs when Paul Pierce blocked Kyle Lowry‘s series winning attempt at the end of Game 7.
It was far and away the most successful season in Raptors history, and was built upon the star backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
DeRozan was recognized for this accomplishment by being selected for his first All-Star appearance, while Lowry was almost universally recognized as the biggest snub in the Eastern Conference.
With Toronto resigning Lowry, Patrick Patterson, and Greivis Vasquez this summer, while also adding Louis Williams and James Johnson to the bench, many expected that Toronto had the tools to potentially exceed their remarkable 2013-14 season.
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To date, the Raptors have done just that by accumulating a record of 8-2, and putting themselves alone atop the Eastern Conference at the ten game mark. But where things appear to be going swimmingly for Toronto, a problem exists below the surface … DeMar DeRozan is struggling to match his output from last year.
This isn’t to say that DeRozan is playing poorly (his Player Efficiency Rating is higher than last year), but he has yet to show the regular improvement in production that has defined his career to date.
A notoriously hard worker, both in and out of season, DeRozan is renowned for his work ethic and ability to add to his game each offseason. So far this year, DeMar has instead displayed a regression in a variety of different areas.
Simply put, prior to Saturday night’s game against the Utah Jazz, there has been something wrong with DeMar DeRozan this season.
Take a look at his advanced stats compared to last season:
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/15/2014.
Despite having a higher PER, the majority of his advanced stats have gotten worse this season, but it’s his shooting that should concern Raptor fans the most.
It seems like DeMar has intentionally removed the three point shot from his arsenal, as they account for just 6.7 percent of his shot attempts. This would be the lowest percentage since his second year in the league, and a significant decrease from last year’s 14.9 percent.
On the plus side, DeRozan has increased his number of attempts from within three feet of the rim (23.3 of his shots are within this range) where he is currently shooting 60 percent on the season. The issue is that this is the one of only two areas that his field goal percentage has improved this season.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/15/2014.
His mid-range shot is still a central piece of his game, but needs to be taken advantage of. Outside of shots within three feet of the rim, DeMar’s strongest area is from 10-16 feet, where he currently shoots .412 percent.
The issue here is that DeRozan takes a higher percentage of shots from beyond 16 feet, where he shoots a much lower percentage of just .302.
Yet none of this seems to bother Dwane Casey:
Casey said he's happy with DeRozan's shot selection - those are his shots. "If he doesn't take those same shots he's coming out of the game"
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) November 14, 2014
Saturday night against Utah though, DeRozan showed what he is capable of by scoring 27 points on 10-of-17 shooting. He remains a dynamic scorer, and a developing star in the NBA.
With the Raptors’ record of 8-2, criticizing DeMar for a poor start seems like an overreaction, but that is the reality of being a team’s top performer. The expectations are there no matter what the team record.
I fully expect DeRozan to improve his numbers after a rough start (by his standards) to the season, and that Saturday night’s performance against Utah will be more indicative of the season to come than the first nine games. But that doesn’t excuse what has in many ways been a rough start to the season for DeMar.