Los Angeles Clippers: How Long Can Window Stay Open?
In the 2004-05 season, the Phoenix Suns, coming off a miserable 36-46 record the previous year and having missed the playoffs for the first time since 1988, blitzed the league en route to a 62-win season and a surprise appearance in the Western Conference Finals.
It seemed that a new power had emerged in the Western Conference with MVP Steve Nash and first team All-NBA F/C Amar’e Stoudemire. This team seemed destined for a decade of relevance, being a perennial championship contender.
However, bad luck, bad trades, and poor decisions by the owner and management had the organization back in the lottery only five years later. Bill Simmons of ESPN/Grantland.com details the mistakes made in this classic article.
Looking at the Clippers and their struggles this year, it is easy to see some of the parallels to those famous Suns teams. Los Angeles has made the playoffs three straight times, but has yet to even sniff the NBA Finals.
The beginning of the Suns run began with an ownership change, as the locally revered Jerry Colangelo gave way to the now-despised Robert Sarver. Meanwhile, the Clippers, in the midst of their own renaissance recently changed from the despicable Donald Sterling to unknown eccentric billionaire Steve Ballmer.
That is not a perfect comparison, as Sterling was a horrid owner forced out by the league and even the unpopular Sarver does not come close to that level of disgrace.
However, Sarver’s inexperience immediately made an impact, and it is certainly a concern that Ballmer might also make a rash decision given the disappointing start of the Clippers.
Both the Suns and Clippers featured older point guards with checkered injury histories and a short window. Blake Griffin and Amar’e Stoudemire have been compared numerous times, as they feature otherworldly athleticism and worry over previous knee injuries.
This is the third year of the Clippers run with this group, and while the window is still wide open, you can see the opening narrowing ever so slightly. Chris Paul turns 30 this May, and while it is still early, both his stats and the eye test show a slight decline in his formidable skills.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/13/2014.
All of his stats are down just a little bit, and he may turn it around, but even if the decline does not start this year, it is safe to assume that he plateaued at the very least. How long he can play at an elite level is unknown, but this could be the start of a slowly eroding skill set.
While Paul’s running mate, Blake Griffin, is just entering his prime, power forwards who rely on elite athleticism have shorter careers than many other players. Just look at Stoudemire as an example.
After playing out of his mind during the Suns last playoff run, and looking like an all-star in the first half of the next season, Stoudemire has become an afterthought for the Knicks. Or even worse, a salary albatross.
More from Hoops Habit
- The 5 most dominant NBA players who never won a championship
- 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
- Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
- Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
- Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
So while Griffin looks fine now, remember that Stoudemire went from leading his team to championship contention at age 27 to being a role player coming off the bench just a couple of years later.
Poor decisions by team management haunted the Suns, and they may very well haunt these Clippers. At the end of the 2005 season, Joe Johnson, budding all-star shooting guard for the Suns, was a restricted free agent.
Sensing this team was on the verge of greatness, it seemed logical for the Phoenix organization to write a check and enjoy bringing the first NBA championship to the valley of the sun.
However, new owner Sarver decided against paying Johnson market value, and after some infamously acrid contract negotiations, Johnson decided he wanted out. Even at that point, Sarver could have relented, wrote the check, and brought Johnson back.
Players like Johnson, a young all-star wing capable of playing at an elite level on both ends of the floor, are not easy to find.
Still, instead of patching things up with Johnson, the Suns shipped him off to Atlanta in what was roundly criticized as a cost-cutting maneuver.
Compare that to the Clippers deciding to trade budding potential all-star point guard Eric Bledsoe. I already talked about the trade being a mistake, but it is clear now that the trade might have narrowed the Clippers window of contention.
Bledsoe just cashed in this offseason, signing a near max deal with, coincidentally, Phoenix.
The Clippers reason for trading him was unclear, but it probably had something to do with his upcoming value as a restricted free agent. In return for a young, promising player like Bledsoe, the Clippers received almost nothing.
A year of an injured Jared Dudley, and a sign-and-trade deal with J.J. Redick. Redick was a free agent whom the Clippers probably could have signed outright.
Instead, they chose to deal their best asset and young player for questionable returns, almost assuredly due to future salary concerns.
In the 2007-08 season, the Phoenix Suns faced a dilemma with their all-star forward Shawn Marion, who was in the last year of his contract.
Reportedly, Marion was somewhat disgruntled behind the scenes over a lack of an extension, and while on the court his production was still good, he was not the same player he had been in his prime.
Nevertheless, Marion was a stalwart and versatile defender, and the Suns at the time were at the top of the Western Conference standings. The organization decided to trade away Marion anyway in the middle of the year, netting injured big man Shaquille O’Neal.
Looking at this year’s Clippers squad, you see DeAndre Jordan playing in the last year of his contract. Jordan is not in the same stratosphere as Marion was in his prime, but he is a good player having a down year.
Unlike the Suns, the Clippers would like to ink Jordan to an extension, but according to Doc Rivers, Jordan is, rightfully, not interested. Read this article on probasketballtalk about Jordan’s contract.
So that brings the Clippers to the same crossroads, albeit under slightly different circumstances, that the Suns were in during the 2007-08 season. Do they trade Jordan and his expiring contract, or risk letting him walk for nothing this offseason, or worse, risk overpaying him despite the team’s already tight cap situation?
The Suns chose to be bold, and it backfired spectacularly. Shaq never came close to bringing a championship to Phoenix, as they lost in the first round the year of the trade and failed to even make the playoffs the following year. Meanwhile, Marion went on to play a key role for the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks championship squad.
I have gone on the record supporting exploring a Jordan trade, but the Clippers need to be careful. Any move needs to have both the short and long term in mind. Contender’s windows can close quickly with the wrong move, as Phoenix found out.
The final nail in the coffin of the Suns run as contenders came after a surprise return to dominance in the 2009-10 season, as Phoenix turned a rejuvenated Amar’e Stoudemire and a feisty bench into a trip to the Western Conference Finals, eventually losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in six games.
That summer, Sarver let general manager Steve Kerr leave, and decided that while his team faced an important summer of decisions, they did not need a general manager.
Sarver made all the decisions that summer, letting Amare Stoudemire leave town without getting anything in return, and bringing in three disastrous replacements for him.
Josh Childress, later waived via the amnesty clause, Hedo Turkoglu, sent to Orlando that same year for backup center Marcin Gortat, and Hakim Warrick, who played sporadically for Phoenix over the next three seasons.
None of the signings were a success, and Childress and Warrick clogged the Suns cap for years to come.
The Clippers are not at that point yet, but with the questionable choice of anointing Doc Rivers as coach/gm and ultimate basketball decision maker, it is fair to wonder if that day will come. Is Rivers’ resourcefulness as general manager equal to his coaching acumen.
Or will the Clippers one day regret giving their coach too much power, as the Suns came to regret that very thing with coach Mike D’Antoni?
The seven seconds or less Phoenix Suns were one of the most entertaining teams of their generation, but poor decisions by the organization turned a title contender into a lottery team in just five years.
It would be smart for the Clippers to remember the recent past, and not repeat the mistakes of their Pacific Division rivals. They have already started down the path toward mediocrity, but it is not too late to turn things around.
How they can do that it is unknown at this point, but the line between contender and pretender is razor thin in the competitive western conference. Steve Ballmer needs to make sure that there is a strong organizational structure in place to prevent panic trades and lost summers.
The Los Angeles Clippers are on the precipice of winning a championship. Their rivals are old or injured. The road to the finals is wide open, but they best tread carefully. You never know when internal strife and poor decisions might turn that easy road into a gauntlet of misery.
Just ask the Phoenix Suns.