It’s only been a little over two weeks, but the Toronto Raptors are currently the toast of the NBA. Even with a close loss to the Chicago Bulls last night, the Raptors still hold a record of 7-2, and are developing an attitude to match. Despite a letdown in last night’s game, the Raptors currently find themselves among the top teams in the league and are tied with the Bulls atop the Eastern Conference.
Whenever this has been raised among NBA writers and fans, a caveat is almost always attached: the Toronto Raptors haven’t beat any quality opponents yet, with wins against the Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic (two games), Oklahoma City Thunder (deprived of both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook), Boston Celtics, Washington Wizards, and the winless Philadelphia 76ers. Before last night’s games, Toronto’s opponents had a winning percentage of just .447.
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Not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents, but outside of losing by five to the Heat on the second night of a back-to-back and last night’s setback to the Bulls, Toronto has won when they have been called upon. The Raptors are simply winning the games that have been set before them, including Tuesday’s come-from-behind victory against the Magic, a game that Toronto trailed by 11 entering the final quarter.
Despite their poor strength of schedule, the Raptors are still being talked about as potential Eastern Conference champions, being carried by the starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and a deep bench that features Greivis Vasquez, Patrick Patterson, Tyler Hansbrough, James Johnson, and Lou Williams.
But if Toronto plans to maintain, and perhaps build on their hot start, they will need one of their starting third year players to step up.
Entering the season, many expected that this leap would be made by Jonas Valanciunas, but if early offerings have anything to show, the Raptors’ immediate fate may just be decided by the speedy development by Terrence Ross.
This isn’t to say that Valanciunas has been a disappointment, but his improvement has been incremental when compared to last season, and his hands have appeared to take a step back (though this could at least in part be impacted by the hand contusion he suffered earlier this year).
What makes this surprising is that after the Nov. 5 win in Boston, many Raptor fans were starting to call for James Johnson to replace Ross in the starting lineup. Ross was coming off a three-game stretch that saw him shoot a paltry 31.8 percent from the field (7-of-22), and a downright awful 10 percent from three-point range (1-of-10).
Logic dictated that if Ross was not going to be able to stretch the floor with his shot, what was the point of having him in a starting line-up that desperately needs that skill? After all, James Johnson is the more effective defender at this point in their respective careers.
Outside of that three-game stretch though, and prior to last night’s game, Ross has shot 48 percent from the field on the season, and 60.7 percent from long distance. 60.7 percent!
He’s been even deadlier over the last three games (prior to the Chicago showdown), which has seen him hit 12 of his last 18 attempts from beyond the arch, which leads to him shooting 66.7 percent from long distance, leaving his total season average at 47.4 percent.
This type of long distance shooting just isn’t sustainable. There have only ever been 10 seasons in which a player has attempted at least 50 three-pointers, while also managing to hit at least 50 percent of them.
That’s part of the fun of using small samples sizes, but even outside of his long distance shooting, Ross has shown his readiness to take a leap this year. His advanced stats show improvement almost across the board, despite an identical usage rate to last year.
His Player Efficiency Rating says that Ross is merely an average NBA player, but his skill set couldn’t be more perfectly suited to what the Raptors need.
According to NBA.com, Ross has defended against an average of 8.5 field goal attempts per game, of which his opponent has shot 39.7 percent. The usual field goal percentage of his opponent in these situations would be 44.5 percent, meaning Ross forces his opponent to shoot 4.8 percent less than they normally would.
In fact, there isn’t a single range provided by NBA.com that Ross doesn’t force his man to shoot below their usual percentage, including a startlingly good 13.2 percent worse within six feet of the rim.
Those begging for Ross to be banished to the bench will have to wait an awful long time, as his ability to stretch the floor with his shot while also defending at a high level is exactly what the Raptors need.