Los Angeles Clippers: Reasons To Worry About The Clips
It is only five games into the new season, but the Los Angeles Clippers still find themselves looking up in the standings at six other teams: Phoenix, Sacramento, Portland, Golden State, Memphis, and Houston.
It would be easy to blame the rough start on a tough schedule, but three of the first five games have come against teams that were in the lottery last year, and not expected to make the playoffs again this year.
The other two games were a narrow victory against a wounded Oklahoma City Thunder squad playing without reigning MVP Kevin Durant, and an unapologetic butt kicking by last year’s first-round playoff foe, the Golden State Warriors.
The Clippers were expected to win at least four of those games. The schedule does not lighten up either, with five of the next seven coming against playoff teams, with another tilt against the team with the best record that did not make the playoffs in the Suns.
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It is easy to think that heading into Thanksgiving, this team could be 5-9, and out of the proverbial “if the playoffs started today” standings.
So what has gone wrong, and what can we expect going forward?
As for what has gone wrong, the broadest picture to paint is that the defense, which last year was around league average giving up 101 points a game, has fallen apart. As of Nov. 7, the Clippers rank 25th in the league, giving up 104.2 points per game.
Los Angeles is tied with the Toronto Raptors for the league lead in highest opponents field goal percentage, at 50 percent (league average is 44.5 percent). They are third-worst in the NBA for opponents’ 2-point field goal percentage at 54.4 percent, and fifth-worst for opponent 3-point field goal percentage, 42.6 percent.
Digging deeper, the Clippers give up a league-high 61.5 percent on corner 3s, which is way above the 39.7 percent league average. When opponents shoot a 3 from the corners against Los Angeles, you can count on it going in.
The good news is that they give up the fewest percentage of corner 3s in the NBA, at just 12.6 percent of all 3s coming from the corner, compared to league average of 24.4 percent.
On 2-pointers, the Clippers have a tough time protecting the rim, giving up the third-highest percentage of shots taken within three feet of the basket, at 71.1 percent, compared to a league average of 62.7 percent–rather strange given that they have an athletic rim protector in DeAndre Jordan and a great weakside shot blocker in Blake Griffin.
This shows even more when looking at the number of blocks the Clippers have on the season. Lob City is below league average, with just a measly 20 blocks so far this year, good for 18th in the NBA.
It’s not all bad, as the Clippers are No. 1 in opponent turnover percentage, and 10th in defensive rebound percentage. So when teams do miss, Los Angeles is grabbing the rebound, and that is assuming their opponent even gets a shot off without turning it over.
So what is causing this break down defensively? Looking at the numbers, DeAndre Jordan is averaging almost one less block per game than last season, while Blake Griffin is averaging exactly the same as last season. Newcomer Spencer Hawes is actually averaging 0.5 more blocks per 36 minutes than last year.
So it is clear that Jordan has struggled to start the year, with his defense sliding. The high percentage of made corner 3s could also be a symptom of poor rim protection, with defenders sliding down to prevent layups, but given the low number of corner 3s made, I am inclined to think that the 3-point percentage is just an anomaly that will correct itself as the season goes along.
However, the issue with rim protection might go deeper. This is a contract year for Jordan, so you would assume you are getting his best. His offensive numbers speak to that, as he is enjoying a higher field goal percentage and a higher true shooting percentage, but all of his defensive numbers are down.
Jordan’s defensive rebounding rate is down nearly 3 percentage points from last year. His blocks are down. His defensive win shares, an advanced stat meant to show how valuable a player is on defense, have collapsed. Last year his DWS was a fantastic 5.3.
This year, it has plummeted to 0.2. Meaning last year his defense was calculated as contributing an extra 5.3 wins, while this year it will hardly matter.
Clearly, Jordan is the problem, as hard as it is to put a team’s struggles all on one player. Now, having said that, there is hope.
That 3-point percentage looks fluky and should go down. The Clippers have not faced great teams, but they have faced an array of centers that can score–Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams from Oklahoma City. DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento. Derrick Favors in Utah. Even Andrew Bogut has been effective in his career close to the basket.
It is entirely possible that Jordan has just faced a tough individual slate of matchups, and that over the course of the season his numbers will realign to what they were last year.
If I was to make a wager, I would certainly put my money on Jordan not finishing the year as one of the Western Conference’s worst starting defensive centers. He has too much of a track record and that contract year motivation will undoubtedly kick in eventually.
The only concern might be the rumblings of a Jordan trade to bring in another player. Jordan and his expiring $11 million is the only trade chip the Clippers have, and Jordan knows it. Maybe rumors are circulating around the building that DeAndre Jordan is on the way out?
It is tough to say, but Doc Rivers is loyal to his players, and given that he has final say on any trade, Jordan probably finishes the year as a Clipper, barring something unforeseen happening.
In the end, I think Jordan stays with the Clippers, gets back on track, and Los Angeles rolls off a string of victories starting after Thanksgiving, when their schedule lightens up. Basically, I would not worry too much about the long term prospects of this team. They will be hosting a playoff series come April, barring significant injuries.