How Does Kemba Walker Deal Affect Ricky Rubio?
With the NBA’s new TV deal set to raise the salary cap pretty dramatically in the next few seasons, it seems the common reaction to most recent contract extensions has been something along the lines of “Eh, that won’t look so bad in a few years.” But for Ricky Rubio and his contract talks with the Minnesota Timberwolves, Kemba Walker‘s four-year extension with the Charlotte Hornets sheds light on how much he’s worth in the current market.
Just before the 2014-15 NBA season tipped off in San Antonio, ESPN’s Marc Stein reported that the Hornets had reached a four-year extension with Walker worth $48 million. Paying $12 million a year for a point guard who has shot less than 40 percent from the field through his first three years in the league is probably an overpay in a vacuum, but Walker has potential and in a few years, he might wind up being underpaid.
It was only a few weeks ago that Sean Deveney of Sporting News was reporting that Rubio and his agent Dan Fegan rejected an offer identical to the one Walker received: four years, $48 million. So where does that leave Ricky Rubio, a point guard who’s similarly inefficient with his shot and was reportedly seeking a five-year max extension?
Taking a look at their statistics gives us a glimpse of the similarities and stark differences between these two 23-year-olds who have each played three seasons in the NBA:
| Rk | Player | From | To | G | MP | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Rubio | 2012 | 2014 | 180 | 31.9 | .368 | .323 | .801 | 4.1 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 10.1 |
| 2 | Kemba Walker | 2012 | 2014 | 221 | 32.9 | .398 | .322 | .810 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 16.0 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2014.
As you can see, through his first three years in the NBA, Walker has been a much better scorer and because Rubio is a historically poor shooter, Kemba has the advantage there as well. He’s also been more durable, appearing in 41 more games as Rubio has dealt with a number of injuries early on in his career.
But as a rebounder and playmaker on both ends of the floor, Rubio holds the advantage. Though both guards are a bit undersized, Rubio is a slightly better defender who gets a high number of steals. He’s also a much better passer and floor general despite his shortcomings as a shooter.
Looking at their advanced statistics, the advantages and disadvantages of each become a little bit clearer.
| Rk | Player | G | PER | TS% | eFG% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | TOV% | USG% | ORtg | DRtg | OWS | DWS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Rubio | 180 | 15.4 | .485 | .401 | 7.2 | 38.0 | 3.7 | 21.8 | 18.4 | 102 | 103 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 10.9 |
| 2 | Kemba Walker | 221 | 17.1 | .498 | .443 | 6.5 | 30.4 | 2.2 | 12.1 | 25.6 | 102 | 109 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 10.2 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2014.
Here we see that although Walker is a superior shooter who provides more offensive win shares for his team, Rubio is a much better rebounder, passer, forcer of turnovers and overall defender. Rubio has a pretty high turnover rate compared to Walker, but that’s likely because Rubio is responsible for setting up teammates and orchestrating Minnesota’s offense. He spends far more time with the ball in his hands than Walker, who has a low-post beast in Al Jefferson to feed inside the paint.
With that in mind, what value should the Wolves place on Rubio, who is now unquestionably a centerpiece of the franchise post-Kevin Love? If Walker is worth $12 million a year on the current market and Rubio has rejected that offer, how high will the Timberwolves have to increase their offer to get a deal done before the Halloween deadline for contract extensions?
According to Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com, they might not have to go too much higher:
Beliefs from non-#Twolves NBA people: 1) Barea is the last roster move, 2) Rubio ultimately agrees to a 4-year, $52M extension by Friday.
— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) October 26, 2014
Personally, I think $13 million per year is a bit much for an unproven guard like Rubio. While Walker isn’t as good a defender as Rubio is, he’s a willing one under Steve Clifford’s top-five defense. Rubio is a much better passer, but Walker’s improved his playmaking and decisiveness every year he’s been in the league.
As for their inefficient shooting, I’d put far more trust in Walker to improve his shot than I would in Rubio at this point in time, especially since Rubio no longer has Kevin Love to take the pressure off him on the offensive end.
Still, vacuum value doesn’t determine your worth in the NBA; the market does. And thanks to Walker’s new deal and David Khan’s fatal mistake of refusing to offer Love the five-year max he wanted (reserving it for Rubio), paying $52 million for Ricky Rubio might actually getting off easy.
It took us awhile, but once again we’re back to “Eh, that won’t look so bad in a few years” territory.