After a weary 135-day wait, the NBA is finally back, and with it, the demise and destruction of virtually every speculation-based prediction made during the offseason. This is not the exception.
We’ve previously talked about the Southwest Division, headlined by the Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies, and New Orleans Pelicans, being the toughest of them all, however, we’ve never talked about the toughest State of them all, Texas.
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Headlined by the dominant and ageless Spurs, the Texas battle is, season after season, not one to disappoint. Each Texas team has won a championship in the past 20 years, making up eight out of 20 – Rockets (two): 1993-94, 1994-95; Spurs (five): 1998-99, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2013-14; Mavericks (one): 2010-11.
The Case Against the San Antonio Spurs
A tradition of sorts amongst NBA fans in general, the Spurs are always too old, too slow, and too beat up to contend. Still they have won 50-plus games in each of their past 14 seasons and have been on a continuous hot streak since Tim Duncan arrived back in 1997-98, they can’t be a championship team forever.
Just after the Spurs won the 2007 title, an ageing Tim Duncan predicted LeBron James‘ NBA takeover by telling him this once Game 4 came to an end:
"“This is going to be your league in a little while so I appreciate you giving us this year.” – Tim Duncan"
Since he uttered those words in 2007, the San Antonio Spurs have won 391 games out of 558 (.700), appeared in four Western Conference Finals (2007-08, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14), two NBA Finals (2012-13, 2013-14), and won one NBA championship (2014). Not exactly LeBron’s league.
Here’s how old the Spurs’ core is:
- Tim Duncan: 38 years old, 17 years in the NBA, 1,254 games played, 43,605 total minutes (leads – by 10,597 minutes – all active/inactive NBA players drafted in 1997).
- Manu Ginobili: 795 games played, 21,548 total minutes.
- Tony Parker: 940 games played, 30,685 total minutes (third overall active/inactive NBA players drafted in 2001).
Despite their age, Duncan, Ginobili and Parker are also the winningest trio in NBA playoffs history, 118.
Even though the previous statements sound like good news for them, history shows that it is impossible to stay hot forever.
The Spurs bounced back from one of the most devastating losses in NBA Finals history and cemented themselves as one of the most dominating dynasties in NBA history, this is why I don’t think they will be as committed to the upcoming NBA season and will take a little step back against the loaded Western Conference.
Regular Season Series Prediction: Rockets 3 – 1 Spurs.
The Case Against the Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks, unlike the Spurs, have not been one of the most dominant teams in NBA’s modern era, and they don’t have to be. They’re three years removed from taking the NBA title out of the heavily favored Miami Heat in 2011.
They went into somewhat of a rebuilding process after they won their sole NBA championship in franchise history. Also, they are led by Dirk Nowitzki, who, according to several reports, just got a faster release.
Now, three years into being a competitive/tough non-contender — they did take the eventual champions Spurs to a very competitive seven-game series in the first round of the playoffs — the new-look Mavs will go into the 2014-15 season with a team that needs to figure out how to play together.
Led by Dirk Nowitzki and a superb coach in Rick Carlisle, the Mavs, like the Miami Heat whom they took away the 2011 championship, will have to figure out how those new pieces fit together.
Regular Season Series Prediction: Rockets 2 – 2 Mavericks.
The Case For the Houston Rockets
Out of the three teams in Texas, the Houston Rockets are the only ones that (1) are young and (2) have a core that’s been playing together for, at least a year. The Mavs and Spurs have one or the other.
Of course, their roster got shaken by a copule of whiffs during the offseason, however, by taking on Trevor Ariza, the Rockets replaced their most significant loss with a very similar, although older, player. Also, Chandler Parsons was considered some kind of “glue-guy” inside the locker-room so they’ll have to deal with that too.
Although they most certainly didn’t take a step forward from last season, the Rockets didn’t lost a step during the offseason, either.
And even if betting against the almighty Spurs seems to backfire year after year, my money’s still on Harden to commit to defense and become, finally, the two-dimensional leader that’ll eventually take the Rockets all the way to the NBA championship*.