Cleveland Cavaliers: Has Tristan Thompson Earned Big Extension?
Tristan Thompson and the Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t come to an agreement on an extension, as talks have stalled.
With the deadline for extensions looming, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Tristan Thompson are at an impasse, according to a report by Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com. Thompson and his group are looking for an extension in the $12 million range, with the Cavaliers not seeing that as proper value.
The question that comes to mind is whether Thompson has earned the extension that he’s seeking. At $12 million annually, he’d be getting paid close to what Kenneth Faried and Derrick Favors have most recently received. Let’s look at each of them from last season:
| Player | Season | Age | G | MP | FG% | 2P% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Faried | 2013-14 | 24 | 80 | 27.2 | .545 | .547 | .650 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 13.7 |
| Derrick Favors | 2013-14 | 22 | 73 | 30.2 | .522 | .523 | .669 | 8.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 13.3 |
| Tristan Thompson | 2013-14 | 22 | 82 | 31.6 | .477 | .478 | .693 | 9.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 11.7 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/27/2014.
On the surface, there’s evidence there that Thompson is in the same league as Faried and Favors and since the market bore a certain value for the others, perhaps the Cavaliers should pay Thompson accordingly. However, there are a couple of major sticking points that I can’t seem to get past.
More from Hoops Habit
- The 5 most dominant NBA players who never won a championship
- 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
- Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
- Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
- Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
First off, Thompson scored the least of any of the players — by far — despite playing on a team that wasn’t very good. There’s no doubt in my mind that he should have been able to put up some gaudy numbers on that 2013-14 Cavalier team — if he was able to, that is.
Defensively, he’s the least accomplished in the steal/block department and while that’s not the end-all-be-all of defensive effort and success, it does represent one of those “hustle” categories that we’d like to see out of a guy who isn’t an offensive all-star. Still, contrasting the three players paints a surprising picture.
According to 82games.com, Thompson allowed opposing power forwards to post a 16.5 efficiency rating against him (while achieving a 15.7 himself). While that’s not horrible by any means, it’s not a number that indicates that he’s even average defensively — but it’s much better than the other two. Faried allowed a whopping 20.4 and Favors allowed a 19.7.
If we stopped here, one could argue that Thompson, while not an all-star, deserves to be in the same league. After all, Faried and Favors aren’t offensive juggernauts either and Thompson has fared better on the defensive end. But, then we come to the No. 1 red flag — progression.
Again, the Cavs were not very good in 2013-14, but should we blame the team for not elevating Thompson or Thompson for not elevating the team? After all, he appeared in all 82 games and while his usage rate of 17.5 wasn’t anything to be impressed by, he experienced a downturn in just about every category.
The smoking gun is that the Cavaliers — gulp — were four points better with Thompson on the bench (net per 100 possessions) last season. That’s after he was a plus-1.4 in 2012-13.
Take a look at his career progression (per-36 minutes):
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/27/2014.
A lot of teams are willing to pay for potential (see: Hayward, Gordon and Parsons, Chandler), but those guys were showing signs of progression heading into their big contracts. Thompson is going the other way. With the exception of free throws and defensive rebounds, he’s going the wrong way. You can bet playing next to Kevin Love is going to cause a downturn in those defensive rebounds, too.
So back to our question — does Thompson deserve a big extension? No. The Cavaliers are gambling by letting the deadline pass, but even so, Thompson will only earn the right to become a restricted free agent. It could end up costing the team more in the long run if he’s signed to a big offer sheet, but that regression is enough to make a team take the more cautious route.