Toronto Raptors: Jeff Green A Bad Fit

Just like every other team, the Toronto Raptors are always looking for ways to improve.  From exploring the trade market to partially guaranteed camp invites for Greg Stiemsma, Jordan Hamilton and Will Cherry, Masai Ujiri is constantly combing through options on ways to improve the Raptors.

These explorations by Ujiri can sometimes lead to public rumors, but rumors can also just be based on speculation from others. That’s where Zach Lowe comes in.

Lowe recently made 33 Crazy Predictions for the 2014-15 NBA season, and a few of these predictions involved Toronto.  He not only predicts that Kyle Lowry will be selected for his first All-Star appearance, but also indicates that the Raptors could enter into trade discussions with the Boston Celtics in an attempt to acquire Jeff Green:

"“Green has a player option for 2015-16, meaning he may be working on a de facto expiring contract. His price will come down as the season moves along, but Boston might be willing to accept a diminished return. He’s a likable guy with more fans across the league than you might expect, and he can split minutes between the two forward positions.We know now that Green isn’t a primary offensive option, but he has become a good spot-up shooter, he runs the floor, and he’s a nice secondary threat. He can attack gaps in the defense, provided a teammate cracks them open first.New Orleans and Washington have obvious needs on the wing, and both have sniffed around Green in the past. But the Pelicans have already traded a bundle of first-round picks, and the Wiz are just $1.5 million below the tax without an obvious midrange salary to move in exchange.The Raptors have bad memories of Joe Johnson bulldozing them in the post, and they have all their own picks, plus the midsize expiring deals linked to Landry Fields and Chuck Hayes.”"

On the surface, Green would be a good fit for a Raptors team that, as Lowe reminds us, still has memories of being bullied by Joe Johnson during their first round series against the Brooklyn Nets.

But where would Green fit, and is he worth the price?

For everything that they bring to Toronto, Terrence Ross and DeMar DeRozan are not ideal long-term wing solutions, if only because of their size.  Both are ideally suited to play shooting guard, but Ross became the de facto starting small forward despite being just 6’6″ and 195 pounds.

It was for this reason that Ross came into training camp with an additional 15 pounds of muscle, and although this is a classic statement for a player to make during training camp, it appears to be accurate for Ross.

Green would add size to the small forward position, and would be an intriguing match-up against players like Joe Johnson, but there also isn’t necessarily room for him on the roster.

It’s strange to say, but the wing position may be the deepest position the Raptors have at the moment.  From Ross and DeRozan in the starting lineup to Lou Williams, James Johnson, Landry Fields, and Bruno Caboclo coming off the bench. Although neither Fields nor Caboclo are expected to see many minutes (or are necessarily ready for it), both still add different options to the roster.

This doesn’t even include the possibility that Hamilton is kept on the roster. In 21 minutes against the Celtics on Wednesday, Hamilton finished with 16 points, on 6-of-8 shooting, and 2-or-2 from three-point range.  He also recorded two rebounds, three assists and three steals. Casey also has a willingness to play Greivis Vasquez at shooting guard beside Kyle Lowry.

Even if you count Fields and Caboclo as one person, that still gives the Raptors a possible seven different players who could already see minutes on the wing.

Toronto also went out of their way this summer to try and address their need for big wing defender.  This search brought James Johnson back to Toronto, with an apparent new willingness to play whatever role Dwane Casey would ask of him.

The eerie thing is that James Johnson and Green are remarkably similar physically.  Both are 6’9″, but where Green is listed at 235 pounds, Johnson is said to be 245 pounds.

Their advanced stats last season were also quite similar, but generally give a slight edge to Johnson.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/16/2014.

Granted, Johnson achieved these stats playing only 34 percent of the minutes that Green did, as Green has already shown that he can play heavy minutes.

But unless the Raptors could acquire Green by only giving up Fields and Chuck Hayes (something Boston would not consider), Green just isn’t worth acquiring.  He is still owed up to $18.4 million over the next two years, and doesn’t bring enough to the table when one considers that Johnson is locked into his contract for the same length of time and is only owed $5 million.

With Green also having a $9.2 million player option for 2015-16, he could also walk as a free agent next summer, making the possibility of trading a draft pick for him even more questionable.

I have no doubt that Ujiri would give up draft picks if the right player came along…but Jeff Green is not that player.