Los Angeles Clippers: Is Top Seed Important?
With Kevin Durant out for the start of the season, just how important is it for the Clippers to grab the No. 1 seed?
The 2014 NBA playoffs featured only three upsets, all in the first round, and two of the three were fifth seeds beating fourth seeds, typically the most competitive of the first round matchups.
From the conference semifinals forward, there were no upsets, and there were not even any Game 7s. Each pairing ended with the victors closing out the series on their opponent’s home court. That begs the question, with a marquee player like Durant out for a big chunk of games to start the season, how important is it for the Los Angeles Clippers to seize the best record in the Western Conference?
Looking at NBA playoff history since the 1999-2000 season, the average seed for a Western Conference representative to the NBA Finals was No. 2. Overall, however, more No. 1 seeds have advanced, six, than any other seed. No. 2 seeds have reached the finals five times, while No. 3s have made it three times, and one No. 4 seed managed to sneak in.
More from LA Clippers
- NBA Trades: This wild Mavs, Clippers, and 76ers deal must happen ASAP
- Ranking the 10 championship-less NBA teams by closeness to title
- Can the Clippers realistically sign Chris Paul after shocking waive news?
- NBA Rumors: This playoff team is now the leader to land Westbrook
- NBA Rumors: Westbrook may have played his final game for the Clippers
That means that in 15 years, nine times the team with the best record in the Western Conference was upset.
Still, in 11 of the last 15 seasons, the top team in the west has made it to at least the conference finals, and of the six times the No. 1 seed made the Finals, five times that team has come home with an NBA championship. Of the 10 titles the West has captured in the last 15 years, half have come from the No. 1 seed.
With the best record, a team in the West has a 73 percent chance of making the conference finals, a 40 percent chance of making the NBA Finals, and a 33 percent chance of actually winning the whole thing.
A team that drops down to No. 2 sees their chance of making the Finals drop to 33 percent, and their chance of winning the Finals falls to just 13 percent, although you can certainly make a case that the sample size is too small to make any kind of legitimate observation.
Yet, in the ultra-competitive West, a team whose sole goal is to get the No. 1 seed might play itself right out of the playoffs. There are several examples of previous teams that gunned for that top seed only to fall apart when it mattered the most.
The 2007 Dallas Mavericks are a prime example of a team that, coming off a finals loss to Miami, seemed to be on the brink of a dynasty. The Mavericks set a torrid pace that year, finishing 67-15, and entering the playoffs with a championship or bust mentality.
However, in the pressure cooker of Oracle Arena, against a loose and confident Golden State Warrior team, the Mavericks wilted, losing the series in six games. It was one of the most entertaining series in league history, unless you were a Dallas fan, but ultimately it showed that the all or nothing talk at the beginning of the season has a way of wearing down a team during the grind of an 82-game schedule.
Just last year, the Indiana Pacers, of the Eastern Conference, declared that they would finish with the No. 1 seed, in order to have the home court against their arch-rival, the Miami Heat. The Pacers jumped out of the gate, looking like true contenders. However, as the season wore on, this Pacers team wore itself out as the offense cratered.
They still captured the best record in the East, but the grind had turned them into a shell of their former selves, and they were obliterated in the deciding Game 6 of that series.
The Clippers’ deep bench, except for at point guard, should help keep this team both fresh and focused during the season, and as long as coach Doc Rivers does not over-extend starting point guard Chris Paul, I think that this team can complete a dream season.
Lessen the minutes of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan by spreading the wealth with your backup bigs, and using a scheme I outlined earlier, the frontcourt should be able to flourish. The wing and point rotation is a little worrying, but there are enough similar players to make it seem silly to run the starters into the ground.
Overall, the No. 1 seed should be a goal, but not at the expense of the health of the players. Coach Rivers knows this, and I fully expect to see plenty of minutes for the quality players Los Angeles has on its bench.