Chicago Bulls: Should Starting 3 Be Doug McDermott Or Mike Dunleavy?

Doug McDermott is opening eyes in Chicago, and already starting to get some fan support for a move into the starting lineup over Mike Dunleavy. That’s not unfounded.

In the Chicago Bulls fourth preseason game against the Denver Nuggets, with the Bulls trailing by 21, Doug McDermott helped to trigger a run which had the Bulls even out the score before halftime.

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In just three minutes he played with the starters, they scored 16 points and yielded only three.

In the previous game against the Milwaukee Bucks, he started for the injured Dunleavy, and the Bulls got off to 16-4 start in the first five minutes, then the subs started coming in. Over the last five minutes of the half he and the rest of the starters went on a 17-9 run. Then, they opened the third quarter outscoring the Bucks 19-13 over the first 9:30.

All told that combines to a total of 27.5 minutes McDermott has played with the starters. In that span they’ve outscored their opponents 68-29.

Again, 68-29.

Let those numbers reverberate in your brain for a moment. Swish them around in your skull like a connoisseur tasting a fine wine.

I don’t mean to overstate things or overlook the fact that it’s “just preseason,” but that’s a pretty impressive number on both ends.

It’s not just a quirk of small sample size. Schematically, it makes sense. Grantland’s Zach Lowe discusses how teams defend Kyle Korver and its effect on the offense:

"The gurus at Stats LLC, the company behind the SportVU cameras, have developed two previously unreleased metrics designed to measure the amount of attention an offensive player gets from defenders when he doesn’t have the ball."

"The first, dubbed “gravity score,” measures how often defenders are really guarding a particular player away from the ball. Korver had the fourth-highest score, behind only Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, and Paul George. The second — “distraction score” — is a related attempt to measure how often a player’s defender strays away from him to patrol the on-ball action. Korver had the lowest such score in the league."

McDermott isn’t Korver, but he has a similar impact. While he’s been on the court this preseason, his teammates are 60-of 113-with 11 3s. That comes out to an effective field-goal percentage of .580. While those numbers don’t tell us what his “gravity score” or “distraction score” is, it suggests they are very high.

We can conclude that because what makes Korver dangerous makes McDermott dangerous. He can get the ball in and out of his hands behind the outside arc quicker than you can say 3.

When McDermott, Derrick Rose and and Pau Gasol are on the court at the same time, it puts defenses at a disadvantage, particularly when you combine that with the passing ability of Joakim Noah and the driving ability of Jimmy Butler. It’s not just a coincidence that Butler has a .697 true shooting percentage and scoring 20.3 points per 36 minutes on the preseason.

That gravitational pull towards McDermott and the double teams on Rose are leaving lanes open for Butler. Because of that he’s getting to the rim and drawing fouls—the things that make him an efficient scorer.

Dunleavy is a decent shooter, but he’s not McDermott. He has neither the rate nor the trigger that the rookie does, and ergo, he doesn’t have the same gravity.

Yet, Dunleavy remains the starter at the 3, in spite of the fact he should be coming off the bench.

That’s not to undersell the importance of him to the team. Last year, his Real Plus Minus was 3.07, which was 46th in the league—just ahead of Finals MVP, Kawhi Leonard, and the man he replaced in the starting lineup, Luol Deng. Maybe he’s not that good, but that’s certainly evidence that he’s not that bad.

In fact, Dunleavy doing the things he does well is part of the reason he should come off the bench. He’s a solid, two-way player. He’s also a veteran who has played substantive time with Kirk Hinrich and Taj Gibson.

Cohesiveness on the second unit has been an issue, particularly with Aaron Brooks, Nikola Mirotic and McDermott playing together. That is largely because of the limited time they have in the system and in playing with one another.

Based on box-score data, the Bulls starters are giving up just 88.4 points per 48 minutes while the reserves are yielding 92.4. That’s a four-point difference, and it’s one that can moving Dunleavy to the bench can alleviate.

He’s a severely underrated defender because he’s more of a team defender than an on-the-ball defender. His defensive real plus-minus last year was 1.91, ninth best among small forwards, and just ahead of Deng.

No one is going to argue that he should make the All-Defensive team, but he certainly lends defensive stability to the second unit because he understands the defensive schemes. His strength is where the reserves need the most help.

So, some might argue, doesn’t that just move the problem of McDermott’s defense to the starters? That question, though, has two flaws. First, it assumes that McDermott is the sole reason that the second unit is having more problems than the starters.

Second, it assumes that those problems carry into his move with the starters.

Again, the issue seems to be familiarity with the system and with one another more than anything. Having three players—Brooks, Mirotic and McDermott—all learning the system together means that more than half the second unit is learning it. Swapping McDermott out for Dunleavy shifts the balance, as Gibson, Hinrich and Dunleavy all know the system. And it’s easier for three to cover the mistakes of two than for two to compensate for the errors of three.

Moving McDermott to the starters doesn’t result in a similar problem. Gasol is the only other new component to the starters, and his role—hang back in the paint and protect the rim—seems to be the least complicated.

Furthermore, playing next to Jimmy Butler, who is arguably the best wing defender in the league, means McDermott won’t have to square off against the best wings.

McDermott, too, might have been underrated a bit as a defender coming out of college. While at Creighton, he wasn’t just the primary scorer, he was essentially the entirety of the offense. As a result, to preserve his energy and fouls for that end, he was coached to not be aggressive on defense.

John Wall had perhaps read the scouting reports prior to the Bulls and Washington Wizards preseason opener. When he saw McDermott left in front of him in isolation, Wall stared him down like Mutley eyeballing a box of doggy biscuits. You could almost watch the drool splash down the corners of his mouth and onto the floor.

With a metaphorical wipe of his tongue, Wall broke right, but McDermoot was still there. Wall broke left, but McDermott was still there. Wall tried to cross him over going right, then left, but McDermott was still there.

Wall passed the ball, seemingly stunned that he couldn’t break down McBuckets off the dribble.

Again, I’m not arguing that Dougie is going to make the All-Defensive team, but he’s capable of staying in front of a guy for the couple of seconds he goes from Butler to Noah. That’s all McDermott would be asked to do in Tom Thibodeau’s scheme. Yes, McDermott will get posted-up, and yes he’ll give up some points. But no, he won’t prevent the Bulls from being an elite defensive team.

And if that argument doesn’t work for you, then remember that when he was with the starters, they gave up 29 points in 27.5 minutes—a rate of 51 per 48. Again, limited preseason sample size and all that. But But it’s certainly enough to be worth an extended look.