As teams’ excitement over the new TV deal wears down and things go back to their competitive nature, only one thing remains on owners’ and general managers’ minds; come 2016, GET KEVIN DURANT.
The reigning MVP will become a free agent for the first time since he came into the league and, barring an NBA championship season by the Oklahoma City Thunder, he could be leaving. Fortunately for the Houston Rockets, James Harden and a whole lot of cap-room for 2016 might propel them to the top of Kevin Durant‘s list.
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Nevertheless, in a league ruled by superstardom, Durant’s free agency will be much more about what he wants and who’s willing to build towards it than what teams have already got.
MONEY
Just when we thought the super-team era had an expiration date due to the 2011 CBA rules, the new TV deal encourages teams to get better by spending larger.
The new TV deal comes into the league at $2.7 billion per year, tripling the previous $930 million per year deal. Once NBA teams split the existing $2.7 billion, they’ll be entitled to $90 million in TV revenue alone, a $60 million bump from the previous deal.
Under current CBA rules, team’s salary caps will be 30 percent higher than the $63 million they are right now, landing at approximately $80 million.
Max deals, too, will increase proportionally.
FYI: During the course of the 2014 offseason Kevin Durant re-signed a 10-year, $300 million deal with Nike, according to Bloomberg News.
NBA's Kevin Durant cashes in on MVP status with $300M Nike deal: http://t.co/YFMpf7YhCK pic.twitter.com/s6eI9sfHRv
— Bloomberg (@business) September 3, 2014
Yes, as of 2016, Durant could be cashing-in upwards of $59 million dollars per year just by his NBA and Nike deals alone.
The way the salary cap works in the NBA, almost every team in the league will be able to unload similar amounts of money on him, also, with his Nike deal working no matter where he plays, money’s not going to play a huge role on his decision.
Pelican Debrief
HARDEN’S TRADE
It’s not a secret that the Thunder lost, big-time, when they torpedoed their immediate title chances by trading Harden during the 2012 offseason. It’s also not a secret Durant was upset and stunned at Sam Presti’s decision to trade the third-fiddle of the Thunder’s Big Three experiment.
By trading Harden, the Thunder lost a sixth-man worthy of a frontman role and, with him, their title window narrowed as Kevin Martin failed to take over Harden’s key off-the-bench role down in OKC.
As a young and “inexperienced” team, the Thunder’s experiment was dismantled before they reached their true potential just after falling in the NBA Finals to a much more seasoned/experienced Miami Heat team.
A couple of knee-injuries for Russell Westbrook took them out of contention in the past. Durant’s recently diagnosed Jones-fracture to his right foot threatens their future.
A reliable player like Harden coming off the bench could’ve helped unload some of Durant’s and Westbrook’s heavy loads and extended their title window.
WINNING
In the superteam era, everyone’s career is dissected and ultimately judged by ring(s). This is, by far, one of the worst stats by which we should evaluate someone’s career.
Sure, Bill Russell has 11 championships, however, those came when the NBA had either eight, nine, or 12 teams. Robert Horry won seven by riding on Hakeem Olajuwon‘s 1993-94, 1994-95 “Winning Time” Houston Rockets; Shaquille O’Neal‘s and Kobe Bryant‘s 1999-00, 2000-01, 2001-02 three-peat Los Angeles Lakers; and Tony Parker‘s and Tim Duncan‘s 2004-05, 2000-07 San Antonio Spurs.
Nevertheless, Russell’s consistency throughout 16 seasons makes him one of the best players ever. On the other hand, Horry’s seven championships don’t make him better than Michael Jordan (six); nor better than Charles Barkley (zero).
That’s why rings can, sometimes, be overrated.
As overrated as titles might seem, they do pad a player’s resumé and Hall of Fame case. Durant, often considered as a second-fiddle to LeBron James‘ greatness, may want to pad his by winning one/a few.
I can’t imagine a team that’s willing to go further to get Kevin Durant and providing a better chance at contention than the Houston Rockets. Which leads us to…
HARDEN + DURANT + HOWARD
Once considered an impossibility due to cap-space and or player’s salaries, Houston’s Big Three is now in play as a result of the new TV deal.
In Harden and Durant you’ve got two of the purest scorers in the NBA and defense-spreading maestros (.510/.377/.882 and .499/.369/.849 shooting, respectively).
By adding Durant, the Rockets would join the Cleveland Cavaliers as the only two teams with two players in the NBA’s Top-10 by Points per Touch (Harden, .35; Durant, .56)*.
Dwight’s offensive accolades in the restricted area enable the Rockets’ mid-range and three-point shots. Shots which both, Harden and Durant, master beautifully.
The Rockets’ offense would have off-the-charts shooting numbers and a 40 percent shooter from almost every spot on the floor:
Their pristine shot-selection (shown-above) turns Durant, Howard and Harden into some of the savviest shooters in the NBA.
Also, the Rockets’ Big Three would, by Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating, match up quite well, or even better, against Miami Heat’s back-to-back champion Big-3:
| Rk | Player | PER | ORtg | DRtg | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Durant | 24.5 | 115 | 105 | 88.6 |
| 2 | James Harden | 20.2 | 118 | 106 | 46.6 |
| 3 | Dwight Howard | 22.1 | 110 | 99 | 103.1 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/13/2014.
| Rk | Player | PER | ORtg | DRtg | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Bosh | 20.6 | 113 | 105 | 96.0 |
| 2 | LeBron James | 27.8 | 116 | 102 | 168.5 |
| 3 | Dwyane Wade | 25.3 | 111 | 103 | 105.4 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/13/2014.
Of course, Miami’s back-to-back teams were not even close to a defensive juggernaut, they torched defenses by playing a fast-paced smallball offensive scheme led by the greatest player in the world, LeBron James.
Trevor Ariza‘s addition and, hopefully, a breakout season from Patrick Beverley would turn the Rockets’ starting five into a younger/more consistent version of 2011-13 Miami Heat.
As good as the Rockets’ offense might be under Durant, it is their defense, or complete lack thereof, that will eventually hold them back.
As a result of the NBA’s new TV deal, for the Houston Rockets, and for every other team in the league, a strong push for one of the league’s Top-2 players is not only a no-brainer as it is imminent. For Durant the Rockets might provide the title-chances torpedoed by a trade fueled by the Thunder’s small-market mind.
* Players with > 65 touches per game in 2013-14.