Indiana Pacers: Figuring Out Expectations

Nobody was bludgeoned with more heartache than the 2014-15 Indiana Pacers.

Oh, wait, the season hasn’t even started yet?  Correct!  Yet, they’re still in a tough place, at the worst possible time.  The Eastern Conference has stepped up to the plate, and knocked a grand slam into the McCovey Cove.  It’s vastly better than last season, except for Philadelphia.  They aren’t improving until year 2037.  The conference’s rise has caused the Pacers to have a tougher road than ever.

Today, I’m joined by Dylan Hughes, one of our own writers here at HoopsHabit.  He primarily covers the Milwaukee Bucks, but he resides in Indianapolis, Indiana.  Yep, you know what that means.  He gets to witness this up and down journey firsthand.

To see how he views this team moving into the start of the 2014-15 schedule, we discussed anything & everything about Larry Bird’s group.  I’m surprised Lance Stephenson made it to Charlotte without a busted lip from the legend.

Enjoy.

Young:  Hello Dylan,

A world of tragedy struck this Pacers organization all through the summer.  Actually, saying it that way is a bit mild, but Indianapolis natives are tired of hearing negativity — so we won’t even dive into how horrid both situations (Lance and George) were.

If you count the training camp invitees, there are eight new faces with this Indiana roster.  With those eight, I see numerous styles and personalities that could really click under Frank Vogel.  Out of C.J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey, and Damjan Rudez, who presents the best advantage for the Pacers moving forward into 2014-15?

Hughes:   If you’re looking at best advantage, it has to be C.J. Miles. The Pacers desperately needed offense even if George and Stephenson were in the mix this season, after ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency last year. Being ranked 1st in defensive efficiency, Indiana was still able to win 56 games. Of course they could have won a lot more, but we all know the landslide they had in the last few months of the season.

Aside from the 2008-09 season in Utah, Miles has never been a starter as he begins his 10th NBA season. What Miles has been is a consistent scorer, as he has killed many teams (including the Pacers) from behind the arc over the years. Miles will most likely start to at least begin this season, as he is the most qualified player to fill in at the 3 with George out.

Stuckey will also be very important this season, as he seems to be a poor man’s Lance Stephenson. Stephenson is much more athletic, has a better shot and is a better defender, but who knows with Stuckey this season. He’s a competitor, and being apart of that mess they call the Pistons for 7 seasons may have affected his play. With a fresh start, he might have a pretty good year.

Rudez should also be pretty fun to watch. He’s become a respected three-point shooter in Europe and should definitely help improve upon last year’s bench that really struggled to score.

Young:  Miles is one of the more underrated players in the league, and it’s not just because of his 3-point threat.  Coming off the bench for majority of his career is the reason why he’s underrated, as the NBA is likely known as a “starter’s league.”  Only the starters for each team garner the attention and get everyone riled up.  Miles knows how to attack the basket just as well as he can shoot from the outside, and that’s something people really don’t know about him.

If you were to put Miles on the current Cavaliers, or last year’s Pacers, the results would be impressive.  The team offense would be much more electric.  With this season’s Pacers, his skills are going to shine through, since there are no stars in the starting five.

Rudez is a fun character coming along for Indiana, I tell you.  Part of me realizes that Luis Scola is always going to receive minutes for his reputation and being a finesse post player when he has the ball inside, but if Indiana wants to put points on the board, it’s Rudez that needs more pieces of the pie, you know?

This is finally the year Vogel reaches down into his bench and uses a 10-man rotation, which is something everyone (including you, I think) screamed for last year.  But, we understand that now it’s actually required … it’s not by his choice.  I actually believe that if George and Stephenson would’ve returned, you would get the same Pacers; good enough for 56-60 regular season wins, but never having enough to get over that hump.

We call that hump, of course, LeBron James.

Hughes:   If I’m Larry Bird, I’m putting in Frank Vogel’s new contract extension that he must dip into his rotation a little more. While I believe Vogel got a little too much blame for his team’s struggles last season, you could tell he really didn’t want to change what Indiana did all season long that got them the No. 1 seed in the East.

Hibbert definitely struggled in the first round against Atlanta, and benching him was maybe too much to ask with his rim protection. Vogel really needed to go small at some point, as the Hawks’ starting five could all stretch the floor. He finally did in Games 5 and 6, limiting Hibbert to only 12 minutes in each game. And Roy certainly took advantage of those minutes, tallying more fouls than any other stat …

You never thought Chris Copeland would be a fan base’s favorite player until he came to Indiana, where these fans literally thought he was the team’s savior. Even though Copeland didn’t drop 30 points while shooting 10-11 from behind the arc, he did have a combined 24 +/- in those two playoff games vs. Atlanta.

Despite grabbing some scoring off the free agency market, Indiana still has some holes to fill on the bench. There’s no backup shooting guard or small forward set in stone, but they do have some guys to help fill those roles.

Solomon Hill should get big minutes this year, and playing him at the 2, while small for him, might work out. At small forward, Rudez might find his place backing up Miles, meaning Copeland could be riding the bench again this season. I’m sure Vogel will get him a chance, though, as he at least deserves that after being somewhat mistreated last season.

My biggest worry going into the season is that Lavoy Allen won’t find time. This guy has become one of my favorite players on the Pacers since they acquired him along with Evan Turner from Philadelphia back in February. He has already proven in his limited time last season, training camp, and the team’s first preseason game that he can play, and it’s something I realized long ago. Maybe Ian Mahinmi’s injury lingers on for just a little bit longer, just maybe ….

Young:  Good thing you brought up Hibbert, and although his statistical production was horrid throughout the playoffs, he looks to be a different kind of guy.  Of course, nobody is turning into a legend overnight, but he looks filled with more confidence in the paint (from the first two preseason games).

A different twist was taken at this year’s media day, as Roy actually explained how he wasn’t going to run his mouth this season.  That was directed toward the media, and all of us in the room just stared at him in disbelief.  You rarely hear guys say how they’re going to “shut their mouth” and not give the media any fuel to use on a potential fire later in the season.

As far as Rudez goes, do you consider him a big man that can play the four spot effectively, or a small forward that Vogel will have success with on the wing?  From my first observations, I’m not entirely sure if he’s fast enough (yet), or athletic enough.  But, he can light up the outside with his stroke, and that’s something Indiana needed.  For a team that attempted only 18.8 3-pointers last season (25th overall), something has to give with this new offense.  I expect to see them translate into a top 15 team in that category …. at least that’s how it needs to be, you know?

Hughes:  Roy is going to be better this season, because not only has he learned to remain confident in himself even during his stretches of struggle and got lessons from the great Kareem, but he has more opportunity. The Pacers want to get Hibbert involved offensively because the advantage he has being 7-foot-2. He’s got a sweet hook and is one of the only centers in the league that still plays with his back to the basket.

With George out, there is going to be more opportunity for everyone. With Stephenson gone, there won’t be nearly as much of the shot clock clogged up by one man holding the ball at the top of the key and then cutting to the basket with 7 seconds left anymore. Hopefully that won’t ever happen again. Everyone’s going to get their touches, and if Hibbert’s playing at his best, he should get his fair share.

As Vogel told the great Zach Lowe, Rudez will play on the wing for this team. Even at 6’10”, Rudez isn’t big enough to play the 4. While he may sit behind the arc on offense no matter where he plays, he’s going to have to defend power forwards on the other end, and he won’t be able to do that at 201 pounds.

Indiana’s offense is going to be better this season. With C.J. Miles in the starting lineup, along with Rudez and Copeland getting their chance off the bench, this team is going to take more threes, meaning they will make more threes. Heck, even Solomon Hill can shoot the long ball.

Young:  Hibbert also told us that it wouldn’t be a “one man show” by any means, referring to him getting 20 shots a night.  He’ll be around the 10-13 mark again in shots, only because of the new faces.  That includes Stuckey, who is a ball-dominant guy just like Lance.  Sure, Stuckey can pass too, but he enjoys playing like a physical guard, driving and attempting to finish near the restricted area.

Looking at the broader scope in terms of the Eastern Conference, do you think it’s going to be a killer for this team to play in the Central?  It means they have to take on Chicago, Cleveland, & Detroit four times a piece, which is abysmal for their record.

I think you and I are on the same page though, in terms of conference expectations.  Indiana can squeak out a few wins against the top dogs, and finish in the neighborhood of 31-35 victories.  If you’re way off base of where I’m at, just don’t murder me.

Hughes:  I honestly feel like they’ll be closer to 40 wins this season. The division matchups are going to be dog fights, but haven’t they always been? Detroit games have been close over the years no matter how bad either team was, and same with the Bulls.

When Chicago lost Rose, the Pacers obviously had the advantage, but Chicago fought Indiana just like they did every other team. And guess what? They made the playoffs, both times.

I don’t want to compare these two teams because they all have different talent, but you could arguably say both Rose and George were (and are) equally as big of a loss. Chicago has a great coach in Tom Thibodeau, and Rose’s supporting cast was good enough to win 40+ games each season solely based on defense.  When I say solely based on defense, I mean it. They ranked 2nd behind Indiana in defensive efficiency, and tied for 27th with Boston in offensive efficiency last season. Yet, the Bulls won 48 games, and earned themselves the 4th seed in the East.

There’s reason to be optimistic, as I am, with the Pacers this season. David West is still a beast, they now have some scoring in Miles and Rudez, and Stuckey should do a good job at filling the void left by Stephenson.

I’ll go low and say they win 39 games this season, but would not be surprised if they won closer to 45.

Young:  Wow, you’re definitely a lot more confident in this season than I am.  31-51 is where I had them in August during my forecasts, but that was totally before Miles showed prowess in his first two preseason games.  A lot has been made about the Hibbert trade rumors, but I personally feel that all of it should be silenced.  If Larry Bird was going to trade away the best rim protector in basketball, he would’ve done it in July, to give this team more time to gel with new players.

Bird is all about preparation and going into a season with a clear mindset … and it appears he’s done that with this roster, there would be no sense in breaking it up now.  Although, I do have to say, Goran Dragic with this team — taking over for George Hill, ultimately — would be fantastic for the city.  There’s a reason Phoenix is trying to lock him up for a large contract.

Before we conclude, do you see Hill as the future point guard for the franchise?  I mean, he’s put on the skill and muscle this offseason, but that’s not necessarily going to equate to star production.  He’s never been a true point guard in his life, and he’s STILL not a true point guard.  This should be a fun time to examine him.

Hughes:  Hill is not a point guard. Never was, never will be. You don’t simply go from playing as a shooting guard with a shoot-first mentality to facilitating first.

People act like Hill is a bad player, which is just completely wrong. He came from a college in IUPUI (school located in Indianapolis) that is often overlooked, and was still drafted 26th overall by the Spurs, because they just draft so well. Being Pops’s favorite player to coach obviously makes him look pretty good. In his second season with San Antonio, he started 43 games despite being known more as a sixth man for the team, and averaged 12.4 points while shooting 47.8 percent.

His best season with the Pacers was the 2012-13 season where he averaged 14.2 points and 4.7 assists in 76 games. I see something more similar to that stat line from Hill this season at least with assists, but expect some more scoring.

Listen, Hill is just not a facilitator. While he could near 10 assists every now and then, he is just a better scoring and that’s what he should be doing.

He isn’t this team’s point guard of the future, but he definitely needs to be involved. Like you mentioned, he put in the work this summer as he really wants to improve upon his horrid 2013-14 season. Hill struggled a lot last season to play aggressive offensively and forced himself to try and facilitate more. While guys like George and Stephenson did need some shots, Hill should’ve definitely looked out for himself a lot more.

If Hill and Stuckey can both create enough for their teammates this season, I think the collective effort in distribution would be enough for him to remain point guard. These two could both be considered combo guards, and if you combine two combo guards together, it has to equal a point guard somehow, right?

Young:  I assume that’s how you could work around not having a true point.  It seems a bit crazy that Vogel is just going to be throwing guys out there and experimenting for the first month or so of the season.  But, it’s the only thing he can do.  Thank Lance Stephenson for that one, guys.

I appreciate you taking the time Dylan, even when the Pacers don’t always play like they’re worth the time.  You’re an optimist for this franchise in 2014-15, and I’m somewhere a little beneath you.

Enjoy your day, and hope this early injury bug doesn’t bite Indiana even harder than it did in August.

Peace.

Hughes:  Appreciate you having me, peace.