Golden State Warriors: Festus Ezeli’s Injury A Cause For Concern?

The Golden State Warriors are on the verge of cracking into the top tier of contenders in the Western Conference. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are only going to get better from here, Harrison Barnes has a chance at redemption after a sophomore slump and the backcourt has a lot more depth with the additions of Shaun Livingston, Brandon Rush and Leandro Barbosa. But believe it or not, the Dubs’ chances at being a dark horse title contender may rely on the health of Festus Ezeli.

That statement seems laughable when you consider Ezeli averaged 2.4 points, 4.0 rebounds and 0.9 blocks per game in his lone NBA season. After his rookie year in 2012-13, Ezeli sat out the entire 2013-14 season with a knee injury. He missed all of NBA Summer League this offseason due to right shin inflammation. And so far at training camp, Ezeli hasn’t been a participant in scrimmages or practice since Oct. 1 because of that right shin inflammation.

With Ezeli’s next evaluation still 3-6 days away, he’s already been ruled out of Golden State’s preseason opener against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. Livingston will also be unavailable tonight, but we already knew his toe injury might cause him to miss the start of the regular season, so no surprises there. So why is Ezeli so important to the Warriors? A quick look at the Dubs’ depth chart will show you why.

Last season, starting center Andrew Bogut stayed relatively healthy and played in 67 games, but he missed the entire postseason with broken ribs and Golden State fell to the Clippers in a hard-fought seven-game series. Had Bogut been available, that outcome might have been different. However, the Dubs were still able to compete thanks to Draymond Green‘s defensive versatility and Jermaine O’Neal stepping in as another rim protector and veteran presence in the paint.

But in 2014-15, O’Neal won’t be on the roster as he seems all but bound for retirement. In other words, if anything happens to Bogut, the Warriors will be relying on their backups in the frontcourt.

Those backups are Festus Ezeli and Ognjen Kuzmic, which already isn’t very reassuring. You never want to assume the worst when it comes to a player’s health, which is the reason why so many people are optimistic about Derrick Rose and Kobe Bryant this season. But when it comes to Andrew Bogut, the question is not if he’ll get banged up, but when.

Bogut hasn’t crossed the 70-game threshold since the 2007-08 season. He’s played just 111 games in the last three seasons and since joining the Warriors, Bogut has only averaged 25.5 minutes per game. He’s just not durable, and when it comes to his health Warriors fans are simply hoping he can play out most of the season and be 100 percent healthy come playoff time.

But what if Bogut once again fails to stay healthy? And what if the Dubs no longer have a veteran like O’Neal to rely on as a backup? Even if Bogut is ready to go for the postseason, playoff positioning is everything in the Western Conference. In the event the big Aussie misses a significant part of the season, the Warriors need to keep winning in order to reach their full potential as a top-four seed.

No offense to Kuzmic and the 0.7 points and 1.0 rebounds per game he averaged in 92 total minutes last season, but the Dubs absolutely need Ezeli to be healthy in 2014-15. Even with a healthy Bogut, the big man clearly can’t log big minutes and needs frequent breathers. When Bogut takes his rest, Steve Kerr might take the opportunity to go small with Barnes and Green off the bench, but this team still badly needs a rim protector to back up their defensive anchor.

Ezeli’s numbers aren’t much better than Kuzmic’s, but this 24-year-old first round draft pick from three drafts ago has a lot of potential and way more experience. He’s still extremely raw, but he’s a much better defender than Kuzmic and the Dubs won’t need him for his offense, especially in limited minutes. Ezeli averaged nearly a block per game in just 14.4 minutes per game as rookie, so he’s certainly capable of protecting the basket if he’s needed to.

The only problem is Ezeli can’t seem to stay healthy long enough to start developing that potential. Even though Summer League and training camp aren’t really important for star players, they’re crucial development tools for young, raw prospects like Festus Ezeli. With O’Neal gone and Kuzmic still very much a third-string center, Ezeli’s progress is vital to Golden State’s depth in the frontcourt.

That’s right, Golden State Warriors fans. Your title aspirations may be impacted by the health guy who averaged 2.4 points, 4.0 rebounds and 0.9 blocks per game in his only NBA season. But in a season where everything already has to go according to plan for this team to contend for a title, that shouldn’t be too much of a surprise.