I’m kind of fascinated with Damian Lillard‘s game. I have been since the day he entered the league with the sixth pick in the 2012 NBA draft. After all, it’s not terribly often a player is named Rookie of the Year his first year, then an All-Star his next.
Throw in a competitive streak that reminds me of Kobe Bryant and it’s easy to see why he’s an intriguing player. Taking part in every event as he did at last year’s All-Star weekend for me only highlighted his drive to win even more.
We all have favorite players in this league, and so our eyes are sometimes blinded as to what their true talent actually is, just because we like them so much. (As an example, I am a big fan of Jeff Teague‘s game, and to me I probably think he’s a better player than he truly is.) To be honest, if I was given the choice today, I’d take Damian Lillard over both John Wall and Kyrie Irving.
But that got me to thinking, just how good was Lillard last year in comparison to other top point guards in this league in year two of their careers? How much has my admiration for his game and persona gotten in the way of his actual talent?
| Player | Age | MP | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | 20 | 34.7 | .452 | .391 | .474 | .855 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 22.5 |
| Damian Lillard | 23 | 35.8 | .424 | .394 | .447 | .871 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 20.7 |
| Chris Paul | 21 | 36.8 | .437 | .350 | .455 | .818 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 17.3 |
| Derrick Rose | 21 | 36.8 | .489 | .267 | .500 | .766 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 20.8 |
| John Wall | 21 | 36.2 | .423 | .071 | .440 | .789 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 16.3 |
| Deron Williams | 22 | 36.9 | .456 | .322 | .498 | .767 | 3.3 | 9.3 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 16.2 |
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First glances aren’t overly promising for me, in that a couple of things jump off the page that go against taking Lillard. Firstly, he was as much as three years older than some of the other players on this list, and celebrated his 24th birthday over the summer. Certainly then he is a late bloomer, and while there is nothing wrong with that, Kyrie Irving is only 22 now and entering his fourth season. So by taking Lillard, there’s a chance he will have peaked and plateaued before Wall and Irving have even hit their peak.
Looking at their numbers, both Wall and Irving still did great things themselves their second year, despite being younger and on far worse teams at the time. Interesting to note though is that only three players on this list went to the playoffs in year two of their careers, Lillard, Derrick Rose and Deron Williams. (Side note, if Deron Williams could see his numbers from back then now he’d probably cry. Seriously, what happened there?)
I would also have always thought Lillard’s game most closely resembled D.Rose before his ACL injury, and the numbers seem to back that up.
Although Rose shades both categories, both players in year two were tremendous scorers, but could have done with bumping up their assists total a little bit. They’re not bad numbers, but when you compare them to Williams and Chris Paul, the two point guards who duked it out for best point guard in the league a half decade ago, it’s clear Lillard could be a better facilitator for his team. Neither Williams or Paul had the leisure of laying it off to LaMarcus Aldridge either.
Taking Paul as the gold standard here, which he is, Lillard still has a ways to go before he can be in Paul’s league it seems. Although he scored more than the former New Orleans Hornets star in their second years in the league, Lillard is not the floor general Paul is. That much is clear in the fact he lags behind Paul in assists, rebounds and steals. Overall Paul was a better player then than Lillard is now, but there is no shame in trailing Chris Paul, especially when you have the tools to catch up with him.
What Lillard does possess though, perhaps crucially, is the best three point percentage on this list. Of course players like Irving have improved their three point percentage from the number above, but it stands to reason Lillard will do the same going forward. The three point shot is all the rage these days, and having a point guard so comfortable at executing them is a great bonus for a team like the Portland Trail Blazers.
Lillard also has the best free throw percentage on the list as well, and for somebody who gets into the lane as craftily as he does, you better believe that translates to easy points. His series winning three pointer against the Houston Rockets last year also gives him more swing, especially when you consider the play was designed for Aldridge. It takes stones to demand the ball in that situation and then come through, and you better believe Lillard is clutch.
But from looking at the numbers, maybe I’ve gotten a bit too high on the guy. In my mind, he could be a top ten player in the league this coming season, and I truly believe that. But he’s just not as far ahead of Irving and Wall as I thought, and he’s not as close to Paul.
However, as I mentioned, he’s kind of on the same track as Derrick Rose, and considering Rose had a monster year three in the league in which he was named regular season MVP, perhaps my confidence is justified. No matter what though, he is an elite player in the NBA, he’s just not as obvious a choice for the next ‘best point guard in the league’ as I believed he was.