Los Angeles Clippers: Over/Under Win Total

Can the Clippers hit 56 wins and beat the odds?

Sportsbook.com has its over/under win total numbers out, and the Los Angeles Clippers are slated in at 55.5 wins for the year. Can they hit 56 wins?

Last year Doc Rivers, Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, and company finished with 57 wins, so immediately the thought is that they can hit the over rather easily. After all, the addition of Spencer Hawes and rookie C.J. Wilcox to an already loaded roster should put them over the top. This is a team with championship aspirations, a bold new owner with the deepest pockets in the league, and a veteran squad that has been through the meat-grinder that is the NBA season.

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I detailed the impact the new faces on the Clippers will have

here

, and it looks like the additions and subtractions are a net-positive, even if there is a bit more risk in the back-court. After all, Chris Paul has averaged right about 68 games played per year in his career, so you can pencil him in to miss a week here and there during the season.

In the past, the Clippers have had players like Eric Bledsoe and to a lesser degree last year, Darren Collison, to fill for these expected moments. This year, however, it will be journeyman back-up Jordan Farmar or combo-guard Reggie Bullock expected to play at the point. Seeing either Farmar or Bullock high-fiving teammates as their name is announced as a starter should excite no one who bet the over on the Clippers this year.

However, Paul played in only 62 games last year, below his career average, so there is real hope that he will be sturdier this season, and there will be less Bullock/Farmar and more Paul. The addition of Hawes is a definite upgrade over the back-up bigs from last season, and C.J. Wilcox is a wild-card player whom could easily put up great numbers in a short stint as a rotation player.

Beyond simply health and the new additions, you have to look at the western conference as a whole, and specifically the pacific division. The Phoenix Suns in theory will have a full season of Eric Bledsoe, and could take a win or two away from the Clippers. The Golden State Warriors are always trouble, and even the dismal Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings look to have improved.

Kobe Bryant‘s health could almost deliver an extra loss by itself. The west is incredibly tough again this year, and every game against a conference foe will work to grind down the will of a playoff veteran team during the excruciatingly long 82 game season. Can the Clippers stay focused game after game in the chase for the No. 1 seed? Their collective focus definitely had some blips last year.

On the other side of the NBA, the east is as abysmal as ever, with All-Star Indiana Pacers guard Paul George out for the season after suffering an injury during his USA Basketball stint. Its easy to see Lob City feasting on the East yet again, with only the new look Cleveland Cavaliers, four-time defending Eastern champs Miami Heat, and the Derrick Rose led Chicago Bulls putting up much of a fight.

On paper, and assuming full health, I see 60-plus wins on the schedule for the Clippers, but as stated, Paul will almost certainly miss 15 games or so. With Farmar backing up, going 5-10 in those games would be considered staying afloat. Those extra 10 losses would drop the 60-plus win team back into the low 50s. I might be a pessimist but I will have to render the verdict that the under is the smart play, with the Clippers’ aged backcourt unable to withstand the physical toll of the long season.

Unless Farmar/Bullock exceed expectations or Paul has an uncharacteristically healthy season, Los Angeles will struggle to match last year’s win total, even if they are probably more prepared for a battle in the playoffs.