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Winners Of The 2014 NBA Draft – Analytics Edition

By Mika Honkasalo

Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; NBA commissioner Adam Silver addresses the crowd before the start of the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; NBA commissioner Adam Silver addresses the crowd before the start of the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mar 6, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Jordan Adams (3) dribbles the ball in front of Washington Huskies guard C.J. Wilcox (23) during the first half at Alaska Airlines Arena at Hec Edmundson Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 6, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Jordan Adams (3) dribbles the ball in front of Washington Huskies guard C.J. Wilcox (23) during the first half at Alaska Airlines Arena at Hec Edmundson Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

Memphis Grizzlies

Draft Picks:

Jordan Adams 22nd -> Projected fifth by consensus model

Jarnell Stokes 35th -> Projected 16th by consensus model

The Grizzlies were by far this year’s most blatant “analytical” draft selection team. Adams and Stokes were two of the favorites of the analytical community this year and the nerd Twittersphere erupted when the Grizzlies got both of them (Stokes was acquired in a trade for a future second rounder), praising John Hollinger, the vice president of basketball operations and former ESPN  stat guru.

Adams and Stokes project really well onto the NBA level, a lot of this has to do with their age (both are only 20 by the start of next season), and the fact that they are basically two of the most efficient players in this year’s draft. Adams has an elite steal rate, a pet pieve of stat oriented people around the league.

Steal rates are a surprisingly good indicator of pro performance, though the reasons why are still a bit unclear. It may suggest athletic prowess, high IQ or being relentless on the court, or perhaps a combination of all those things (a bit of a red flag for Julius Randle also, he did improve as the year went on but the numbers are still at least a bit worrying).