Who Should The Los Angeles Clippers Draft At No. 28?

Whether we have over-hyped the 2014 draft or not, it’s still probably true that teams at the end of the first round will have at least somewhat of a chance to pick up a good player.

At the end of a draft, the expected return of a player is pretty low, meaning that players picked in the 20s tend not to be very good; based on stats from the last 15 drafts, you have something like  a 50 percent chance of finding someone who will ever actually be a contributing player for you, and only about a one in eight chance of finding a starting caliber player, especially during the player’s first few seasons.

Even if those percentages are higher this year, it’s a tough job to find someone who can actually help a championship contender like the Clippers in the playoffs. Even if you find a someone who can come off the bench and shoot, or a rebounder and big guy to finish at the rim and hang around in the paint for the regular season, they might easily fade in the playoffs.

See Jeremy Lamb for the Thunder and Mason Plumlee for the Nets as an example.

The Clippers have some real needs and they are over the cap (won’t have the full $5,586,940 mid-level exception–cap holds for Darren Collison and No. 28 draft pick take them over the tax line. If they renounce every other free agent and do some other stuff, they could perhaps maybe get there), especially with athleticism and shooting on the wing and they could really use a reliable big guy.

It’s possible that they can find someone in the draft to fill those needs.

Here is their depth chart from last year:

PG – Chris Paul/Darren Collison (UFA)

SG – J.J. Redick/Jamal Crawford/Willie Green (Team Option)

SF – Matt Barnes/Jared Dudley/Danny Granger (UFA)/Reggie Bullock

PF – Blake Griffin/Glen Davis (UFA)/Hedo Turkoglu (UFA)

C – DeAndre Jordan/Ryan Hollins (UFA)

For a team in the title hunt they quite a few needs. Doc Rivers went on a bit of a bender of signing players who gave the Celtics trouble five years ago (Turkoglu, Granger, Redick and in a sense Davis also).

You have to think about the state of the Western Conference when you are drafting, and the road to the Finals is going to go through the Grizzies, Warriors, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Rockets and Thunder.

That’s quite the field, and the Clips are going to have to be able to defend the wing against guys like James Harden and Kevin Durant on the wing while not getting killed by LaMarcus Aldridge, Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan inside. It’s a tough conference to small ball with Granger and Turkoglu for long stretches of time.

On the other hand the Clippers could really use some 3-point shooting, considering they were ranked 21st in 3-point percentage last season. If they are making 3’s, the offense is unstoppable, which is why Matt Barnes’ corner shooting often works as a sort of litmus test for that offense.

When that happens the flood gates open and it’ll be Paul/Griffin pick and rolls just destroying you all night long.

If a shooter like P.J. Hairston was to fall to them, the Clippers would have to take a serious look, even though they’d probably want a bit bigger wing.

Cleanthony Early seems  to fit the bill as such a player; someone who’s big for his position and can shoot it (although not necessarily from NBA range). Early doesn’t have much upside since he’s already 23 and is a bit of a tweener. Not a huge fan of either of those things. In addition to that he’s not much of a ball mover, something that’s not always necessary but you want high IQ guys who know how to make the next play.

Glenn Robinson III would also fit the bill of an athletic player who could get some minutes as a defender. He’s athletic and can run the floor in transition with Blake or Deandre. He can’t shoot a lick, but his shot doesn’t look like it’s terribly broken (some issues with footwork and balance) and if the Clippers think they can fix that shot like the Spurs did for Kawhi Leonard, he might be the right pick for them.

The most obvious pick here is K.J. McDaniels, an athletic wing ready to guard his position. He’ll be able to succeed in transition and is versatile enough to do a multitude of things on the court. McDaniels has a weird set shot that’s not actually horrible, but I’m not sure if he’ll ever be able to improve it. Plus his release is really slow.

There are a couple of bigs who are really interesting around the Clippers range, namely Clint Capela from Switzerland and Nikola Jokic from Serbia.

Capela is a project, like a real long-term project but his shot blocking and athleticism are enticing. No one knows where that guy is going to in the draft and who knows if he’ll pan out.

Nikola Jokic, on the other hand, is really skilled and the advanced metrics love him. ESPN’s Kevin Pelton’s WARP rankings actually projected him as one of the best players in the draft (although the system has been known to be shady on the international prospects). He’s 6’11”, an amazing passer, shooter and all-around skilled basketball player. He can’t guard anyone right now and it doesn’t seem like he ever will but if the Spurs take him I’m already getting ready to celebrate his 10th All-Star appearance.

He doesn’t really fit what the Clippers need but he might be the international hidden gem of the draft.