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Stats Suggest The Memphis Grizzlies Are Declining

By Mika Honkasalo

Apr 24, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) and guard Courtney Lee (5) congratulate guard Tony Allen (9) during the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder in game three of the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies beat Oklahoma City Thunder in overtime 98 - 95. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 24, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) and guard Courtney Lee (5) congratulate guard Tony Allen (9) during the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder in game three of the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies beat Oklahoma City Thunder in overtime 98 - 95. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Bench

CLICK TO ENLARGE. Memphis Grizzlies Bench Players Career PER's. By: Mika Honkasalo
CLICK TO ENLARGE. Memphis Grizzlies Bench Players Career PER’s. By: Mika Honkasalo /

Mike Miller is a free agent this summer and the Grizzlies desperately need his shooting. Even if they don’t get Miller, the Grizzlies must replace his shooting somehow. For much of their minutes this season, Miller and Lee were separated from each other so that they could play with one of the non-shooting Allen/Prince guys in an attempt to manufacture just enough spacing for the offense to function. Tony Allen is an interesting player type, and it’ll be hard to predict how his contract will look in a year. He still has three years left on his deal at around $5 million a year, and there aren’t many players like Allen, who’s primary and really only role is to be a perimeter defender. Allen is a smart cutter and a terrific offensive rebounder, both of which are attributes that require at least some athletic ability. If he loses that is he playable anymore? I can imagine a Prince 2.0 version happening, except that Allen is smaller.

Ed Davis is just sort of OK, but he is a much more likely candidate to make “the leap” than any of the other young Grizzlies players. Nick Calathes should improve and might get some minutes alongside Conley next year and Jon Leuer is underrated, there are worse things in the world than having Jon Leuer as your fourth or fifth big. The problem is that after signing Miller and Johnson to new deals this summer, the Grizz won’t really have the space to keep Davis, depends on whether or not Z-Bo opts in and what price they think they can get Davis at. Davis is a restricted free agent, meaning that the Grizzlies have the right to match any offer, but it only takes one idiot to bite and push the price to a place where the Grizz can’t go.

Koufos is the best backup center in the league right next to a non-depressed Omer Asik. He is still relatively young and comes cheap next year at $3 million. Big guys tend to play a bit less than guards or wings, but even if Gasol plays only 30 minutes that leaves only 18 minutes of playing time for Koufos, which is way too little. Now they did play together some minutes during the regular season and playoffs, but in those minutes they struggled to score and find any semblance of spacing.

All in all the Grizzlies seemed to be a bit stuck where they are now. They should still be a very good team for a year or two, but  taking the leap from good to great looks a bit difficult. It may be too early to talk about blowing things up: Memphis is a great team with a really cool grit ‘n’ grind identity. Then again, they will have to go the other way at some point and this team is one that is still relatively unlikely to win a title. Decline is going to happen sooner or later, and you have to be ready and proactive in case that happens.

Stats per Basketball-Reference.com, Charts created on OnlineChartTool.com

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