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Stats Suggest The Memphis Grizzlies Are Declining

By Mika Honkasalo

Apr 24, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) and guard Courtney Lee (5) congratulate guard Tony Allen (9) during the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder in game three of the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies beat Oklahoma City Thunder in overtime 98 - 95. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 24, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) and guard Courtney Lee (5) congratulate guard Tony Allen (9) during the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder in game three of the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies beat Oklahoma City Thunder in overtime 98 - 95. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Starters

CLICK TO ENLARGE. Memphis Grizzlies Starters Career PER's. By: Mika Honkasalo
CLICK TO ENLARGE. Memphis Grizzlies Starters Career PERs. By: Mika Honkasalo /

The wonderful era of Tayshaun Prince starting needs to end. Now. Last year he posted a career worst PER of 8.2, which ranked 401st among 482 players to check into an NBA game this season. That’s not very good. And while he’s still a pretty solid defender, the offense is unbearable and you’re literally playing 4.14 against five when he is on the floor (the .14 comes from him actually being a pretty good passer). The good news is that Prince is an expiring contract next year.

Mike Conley has pushed his game to another level over the past two seasons, but it’s unclear if the improvement will continue as most NBA guards tend to reach their peak in their mid-20s. Marc Gasol and Courtney Lee should produce something similar to what they have done previously, as both of them are still under 30 and in their primes.

Zach Randolph is the interesting case here; he has a game isn’t really predicated on athleticism, he will always be a bully in the post and a tough guy. The defense hasn’t really slipped, he is still pretty good at that end. After some injury ails two season ago, Randolph has bounced back and looks springier than he did right after coming back. Then again, the history of big men who “lose it” is pretty disturbing; once you decline you decline hard, much faster than comparable guards. This generally happens when a big guy loses his athletic ability, and at worst it can look like this:

Now look, that’s Tim Duncan, who is an awesome defender, but this is what the future might look like for Z-Bo on a nightly basis if he loses his last shred of jumping ability. Randolph has gotten worse in shooting efficiency inside of three feet for every year in the past four, going from 65.4 percent to 57 percent in pretty even chunks. If the Grizzlies decide to extend Z-Bo for a long term deal(whether it be this year or next, Randolph has a player option for next year), they have to be ready for the fact that this could get real ugly real quick.

The bottom line is that none of these guys are likely to improve significantly anymore, including Conley. Going the other way is just more likely.

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