Three Point Guards Who Could Find New Homes This Summer
As I outlined a few days ago, the point guard position is the deepest it’s ever been.
That being said, upgrading the point guard position could help certain teams (cough, Indiana Pacers, cough) take the next step as a franchise. A good point guard is the leader on the court, and the backbone of a team’s offense. Defensively, they are extremely important as well, as they’re forced the opposing team’s ball handler on a nightly basis (and if you’ve ever played basketball, you know how annoying it is to guard a top-notch ball handler who is getting screen upon screen set for him).
There are three point guards in particular who I feel have a good chance of changing teams this offseason, and although they aren’t the cream of the crop at their position, they all could help a contending team take the next step.
Lowry has had a roller coaster career. He was drafted by the Memphis Grizzlies in 2006 after playing in a four-guard lineup at Villanova (Mike Tardy, Allan Ray and the Denver Nuggets’ Randy Foye joined him in one of the most crowded-but-effective backcourts I’ve ever seen on a college team). Lowry barely played his first year, but became a rotational player on Marc Ivaroni’s 2007-08 Grizzlies’ squad, averaging 9.6 points and 3.6 assists per game (but shot just 43 percent from the floor and and 26 percent from three-point range).
Midway through his third season, Lowry was dealt to the Houston Rockets, and he spent the rest of the season backing up Aaron Brooks. Lowry spent the next season filling the same role, averaging a career-high 4.5 assists but shot under 40 percent for the season. In his fifth season, Lowry was handed the keys to the Rockets, starting 71 games and averaging career highs in points (13.5) and assists (6.7). However, it wasn’t until the following season that Lowry started to turns heads.
In his first 38 games of the strike-shortened 2011-12 season, Lowry averaged 15.9 points, 7.2 assists and 5.3 rebounds, and shot a career-best 39 percent from distance. All of a sudden, it seemed like Houston had themselves a stud at the 1-spot, but when Lowry was injured on March 7, he was replaced by another budding point guard, Goran Dragic, who remained the starting point guard even after Lowry returned from injury.
With some apparent bad blood between Lowry and coach Kevin McHale, Houston shipped their bulldog to the Toronto Raptors in late June for 60 cents on the dollar (Gary Forbes and a 2013 first-round pick, the same pick that was dealt to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who used it to grab Steven Adams). In his first year in Toronto, Lowry took a step back, dropping in nearly every statistical category. He was nagged by injuries most of the season, and although he appeared in 68 games, he didn’t look himself.
This season, though, Lowry has become a bonafide stud, possibly the best floor general in the Eastern Conference among potential playoff teams. He’s averaging 17.3 points and 7.8 assists and more importantly, he’s leading the Raptors to the third seed in the East, something that seemed out of reach before the season began.
Lowry will be a free agent this summer, and barring something unforeseen, he’s going to get paid big money. Toronto seems like an ideal destination, as they have enough young pieces in DeMar DeRozan, Terrance Ross and Jonas Valanciunas, but he may not like the whole living in Canada thing (which most people can understand).
Masai Ujiri is one of the premier basketball minds in the NBA, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled off a sign-and-trade deal with Lowry over the summer. There are several rebuilding teams with cap space that could use his services, but his options would then be limited to teams at the bottom of the barrel.
The New York Knicks seem like a possible destination, as they expressed interest in the veteran point guard before the trade deadline, and although they would need to pull off a sign-and-trade deal to acquire him, I could definitely see a move like that happening (Dwane Casey would love Iman Shumpert). The Los Angeles Lakers are also an interesting destination, but the idea of playing with old, cranky, past-his-prime Kobe Bryant might not be all that appealing.
Ultimately, it will depend on whether Lowry feels like he can mimic this season. If he is confident that he can, than signing a one-year deal with Toronto could be an option, allowing him to be a free agent in the summer of 2015, when tons of teams will have money to spend. If he keeps playing like he is right now, then he won’t just be a consolation prize either (they should call every NBA consolation-prize signing an Amare; It should just become a term).
We all know about Jeremy Lin. We all know what he did for the New York Knicks playing under Mike D’Antoni, and because of that, Houston signed him to a back-loaded, three-year $25 million deal.
However, Lin was somewhat disappointing last season. Playing at a frenetic piece in an offense that should have afforded him every opportunity to push the ball, Lin averaged a pedestrian 13.4 points and 6.1 assists per game for the Rockets.
In his second year with Houston, Lin has been moved to the bench, where he can match up with backup point guards and be the man offensively while James Harden gets a blow. Lin plays much better when Harden isn’t on the court, as his dribble-heavy style clashes with the ball-dominant Harden on the floor. Lin has appeared in 57 games this season, averaging 12.5 points and 4.1 assists, shooting a career-high 45 percent.
With Lin set to make $15 million in the 2014-15 campaign, it’s very likely that Houston moves him over the summer. Chandler Parsons has a team option for less than $1 million for the 2014-15 season, but if the Rockets choose to pick up the option, Parsons will be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2015 (which is the aforementioned summer that will feature a bunch of teams with cap space). Severing ties with Lin would free up some money on Houston’s books, which would aid them in signing Parsons to a long-term deal.
I see a team like the Orlando Magic as a really good fit for a Lin. He could play next to another tweener guard in Victor Oladipo, and the two of them would be able to share all guard responsibilities. Although $15 million is a really steep price for Lin, the fact that he’s the guy who started the global sensation that was Linsanity will help the team create lots of revenue.
Lin is certainly not an elite point guard, but he’d be an upgrade over at least a handful of starters right now. Plus, the fact that he’s a marketing team’s dream doesn’t hurt.
Before the season, the Atlanta Hawks retained Teague, who had signed a four-year, $32 million offer sheet with the Milwaukee Bucks. Now, Atlanta has a budding young star locked into a very manageable deal, which is the best kind of asset. With Dennis Schroeder showing some promise for the Hawks, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Danny Ferry move his floor general this summer, especially if he can grab another pick in the 2014 draft. Although coach Mike Budenholzer’s run-and-gun offense has aided him statistically, Teague’s averaging 16.2 points and 7.0 assists per game.
Teague, who was the 19th overall pick of the point-guard heavy 2009 NBA draft, has improved steadily over his time in Atlanta. His first two years he played sparingly, averaging just 10.1 and 13.8 minutes per game on a pair of Hawks teams that made it to the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Teague was handed the starting job in Atlanta in the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, and he posted serviceable numbers (12.6 points and 4.9 assists per game). To me, Teague is a right-handed Mike Conley, and both he and Conley exemplify good-but-not-great points guards in the NBA. They both manage games, run the offense, provide consistent but rarely-dominant scoring, and they both are competent defenders.
Whether Teague is dealt or not depends on whether Ferry thinks he’s a foundational player. If he doesn’t, then I’d expect Teague to be on the move once the right asset is dangled (maybe a young forward like Terrence Jones could tickle his fancy, or maybe he’s just looking to grab a lottery pick). One of the most surprising trades during last year’s NBA draft came when point guard Jrue Holiday was dealt to the New Orleans Pelicans for two first-round picks (right now, despite the losing streak, it looks like Philly robbed New Orleans; Two first rounders for a top-20 point guard is just too much).
Look for teams like the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers to make a run at Teague in the offseason.