Houston Rockets: Dissecting Most Glaring Weaknesses
The Houston Rockets are a championship contender. That phrase isn’t lightly thrown around, nor should it be, but it applies to a Rockets team that has the necessary tools to pursue an NBA title during the 2013-14 season.
As is the case with every midseason force, however, the Rockets are not yet a finished product. With the 2014 trade deadline set to pass on Feb. 20 at 3 p.m. Eastern, the time to improve is fading away.
The question is, what are the Rockets’ most glaring weaknesses?
The Rockets are No. 4 with 105.1 points scored per game and No. 8 in rebounds per game. Those two statistics often add up to sustainable success, as Houston plays aggressively on offense and performsstrong enough on the glass to control the pace of a game.
Here’s where the Rockets need to look to improve.
Allowing Free Baskets
The most costly weakness that the Rockets possess is an inexplicable inability to take care of the basketball. Not only is Houston wasting possessions by coughing the ball up, but it’s allowing opponents to put points on the board that shouldn’t be available.
Houston is currently vulnerable to a postseason collapse.
Houston is tied for 27th in the NBA with 15.3 turnovers committed per game. The Rockets are also 29th in turnover differential, which measures the difference between those committed and forced, and 28th in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Most importantly, Houston is 27th in points allowed off of turnovers per game at 18.1. To make matters worse, the Rockets are 29th with 15.1 second chance points allowed per game.
That adds up to 33.2 preventable points allowed per contest and that’s a primary source for the Rockets’ underwhelming defense. Pace plays a major factor in the way that Houston succeeds and fails, but playing up-tempo shouldn’t guarantee as many turnovers or second chance points as the Rockets’ approach does.
Until Kevin McHale‘s club can keep their opponents off of the glass and take care of the basketball, the Rockets will have a hard time making the leap from contender to favorite.
Perimeter Shooting
Considering the Rockets are led by All-Star shooting guard James Harden, Most Improved Player of the Year candidate Chandler Parsons and Sixth Man of the Year contender Jeremy Lin, it’s fair to assume that the perimeter is strong. That trio has provided some sensational moments, but perception outweighs reality.
When it comes to perimeter offense, Houston is shockingly poor.
After finishing 2012-13 at No. 2 in 3-point field goals made and No. 8 in 3-point field goal percentage, the Rockets have hit a steep decline. The Rockets are No. 6 in 3-point field goals converted, but check in at No. 26 in field goal percentage from distance.
It doesn’t take a statistician to know that Houston is doing something wrong when it ranks No. 1 in attempts and No. 26 in percentage converted from 3-point range.
Furthermore, the Rockets are No. 28 in field goal percentage on mid-range jump shots. Corner 3s have been friendly enough to Houston, but from above the break, it’s shooting just 33.6 percent.
That’s especially concerning considering the Rockets average a league-high 19.8 attempts from above the break per game.
The fundamental issue with the way that Houston is running its offense is that it continues to rely upon its least-efficient shots.. No one will question that the Rockets excel at pounding it down low, whether via drive or post-up, and that’s a primary reason why they’re No. 4 in scoring offense.
Once the game changes in the playoffs, shooting poorly won’t cut it. Hence Houston ranking fourth in percentage of points scored in the paint at a whopping 48.1 percent.
Ball Movement
Without a shadow of a doubt, the most crippling blow for the Rockets is their inability—more so their apparent unwillingness—to create offense for one another. Whether evaluating what’s on the surface or digging deeper, it’s clear that Houston relies too heavily upon isolation sets.
Come the playoffs, that just won’t be enough to survive three rounds against the Western Conference.
In the most basic form of evaluation, the Rockets are 23rd with 20.3 assists per game. More importantly, Houston is just 26th in assisted field goal percentage, which measures the number of shots made that come off of an assist.
Furthermore, Houston is 29th in percentage of unassisted 2-point field goals and 11th in percentage of assisted 3-point field goals. What this proves is that the Rockets move the ball along the perimeter, but often fall in love with isolation-style attempts at attacking the rim.
Chalk this up as yet another area that Houston must improve in order to successfully pursue a championship.
How to Improve
To recap, the three most glaring voids on Houston’s roster are an absence of ball movement, turnover-prone play, poor transition defense and an underwhelming group of jump shooters. What this means is that Houston needs a point guard who can facilitate, floor-spacers who can consistently shoot from 15 to 24 feet and willing defenders.
Fortunately, those are goals.
The two players who the Rockets must seriously consider are Avery Bradley of the Boston Celtics and Jameer Nelson of the Orlando Magic. Neither are stars by conventional standards, but both contribute in a variety of areas that would help Houston cover up its weaknesses.
With Omer Asik, Houston has the necessary trade centerpiece to get a deal done.
Bradley would provide the defense that the Rockets need, serving as a lockdown force at both guard spots. Even when he isn’t forcing turnovers, he knows how to frustrate slashers and shooters, and will continue to develop due to his young age of 23.
According to Susan Bible of Basketball Insider, the Celtics are willing to trade Bradley.
Nelson won’t offer as much value on defense, but he’s a career 37.9 percent shooter from 3-point range and a skilled facilitator. His set of abilities are the perfect match to James Harden. Nelson’s a strong shooter and an intelligent facilitator who can help to develop a cohesive offense, while Harden is a ball-dominant slasher.
Dwight Howard‘s approval would be required due to past issues between he and Nelson, but Chris Sheridan of Sheridan Hoops reports that Orlando is willing to execute a trade including the veteran point guard.
The issues that Houston will run into include the need to take on unfavorable salaries, but the risk doesn’t outweigh the reward in every instance. The Rockets have a legitimate opportunity to win the title in 2013-14, and finding the missing piece is what needs to be done.
As a championship contender, Houston time for patience has run out. Something needs to be done to improve this team.