Utah Jazz: Through the First 12

The Utah Jazz are 12 games into the 2013-14 season. They own the league’s worst record and are the only team that remains singular in the wins column. We have learned a lot about this Jazz team through it’s first 12 games, but there is still much we don’t know. Utah was expected to be a lottery team this year, but being the league’s worst has been somewhat of a surprise. It’s worth taking a look at some of the things that have contributed to the poor start and some of the things that Jazz fans can be hopeful about.

Team Stats

Offensively, Utah’s effective field goal percentage (eFG%) is 29th in the league. Another important offensive category is turnover percentage and the Jazz turn the ball over the third most in the league. Though Utah is actually the eighth best offensive rebounding team in the league and shoot free throws at the 13th most frequent rate, the poor shooting and frequent turnovers is condemning enough to give the Jazz the league’s worst offensive rating.

The Jazz hoped that a solid defense could help overcome some of what was bound to be a very poor offense. In the early goings of the season, that hasn’t been the case. Utah is 25th in defensive rating, with many things contributing to the poor performance. The Jazz are allowing their opponents to shoot the ball well (21st in opposition eFG) and are sending their opponents to the free throw line too often (26th most) to be considered a good defensive team, but are forcing the 16th best frequency of turnovers. In what may be the biggest surprise of the young season, Utah is the third worst defensive rebounding team in the league. This is surprising both because the Jazz have very good individual rebounders, and because they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league. Utah will hope that there is a relatively simple fix to this disconnect. Based purely on observation, some of Utah’s defensive rebounding problem could stem from Derrick Favors abandoning good position while attempting to block shots.

Starter Analysis

Center: Enes Kanter, like much of the team, is doing some things quite well, and others quite poorly. For example, Enes is scoring about 15 points per game on 50 percent from the field. Enes is currently 11th in the league in points per game off of close shots (inside of 12 feet, excluding drives) and is shooting such shots at a 59.6 percent clip. The big Turk is also shooting about 86 percent from the free throw line. In addition, Kanter is driving Utah’s success on the offensive glass, grabbing about 3.5 offensive boards a game. However, if you use NBA.com‘s player tracking stats to measure all players who average at least five rebounds per game, Kanter barely ranks in the top 100 for rebound percentage per chance (a chance is defined as being within 3.5 feet of a rebound). This may be a case of poor positioning, for when you use the same criteria, Kanter is second best in the league in contested rebound percentage. In short, if he’s ready for a rebound he’s quite good and fighting off opposition for it.

Power Forward: Derrick Favors is sixth in the league in total blocks. He is fifth in the league in total rebounds. Jazz fans can be pleased both at the defensive production from Favors, as well as the potential for growth. Having said that, even though he has grabbed a large number of rebounds, if you use the criteria we used with Kanter, Favors is well outside the top 50 players in percentage of rebounds per chance, grabbing about 56 percent of his chances. Players like Dwight Howard, Kevin Love and Pau Gasol are all better than 60 percent. A similar conclusion could be drawn when considering Favors’ blocked shots: of the players averaging at least 1.5 blocks per game (generally big men), Favors is allowing his opponents to shoot 48 percent at the rim, a far cry from the 30 percenters: Brook Lopez, Anthony Davis and Roy Hibbert. Offensively, Derrick will look to improve. He is averaging about 14 points per game, but shooting less than 50 percent from the field with most of his attempts coming at the rim. He’s also shooting less than 60 percent from the free throw line and turning the ball over 2.5 times per game.

Small Forward: Richard Jefferson is playing too many minutes at this point in his career. While Jefferson has had some solid games, he is shooting less than 37 percent from the field and less than 32 percent from 3. He’s also only tracking down 2.7 rebounds per game, contributing to Utah’s terrible defensive rebounding. Hopefully bringing Marvin Williams and Brandon Rush back from injury and reducing Jefferson’s minutes will allow him to stay fresh and improve his shooting and rebounding percentages, because it’s been clear watching the Jazz that his veteran leadership has been beneficial.

Shooting Guard: Gordon Hayward has been Utah’s best player so far, but also is contributing to many of the team’s biggest problems. Hayward is leading the team in scoring (19.2 points per game), assists per game (4.4) and 3-pointers made per game (1.5), while also grabbing about six rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. However, Hayward is also leading the team in turnovers and his shooting percentages have not been good, a summary of Utah’s offensive problems as a whole. Hayward’s shot selection has been quite poor as well. Not only are 40 percent of his shots from mid-range and about 25 percent from beyond the arc (ideally these would be flip flopped), he is shooting too many pull-up jumpers as opposed to spot-ups. Hayward is in the top 20 in the league in pull-up attempts per game and only hitting about 35 percent of them. This may be remedied when Trey Burke returns to the line up and assumes the bulk of ball handling duties, allowing Hayward to get open and turn more of his shot attempts into spot-ups, from which he is more effective.

Point Guard: John Lucas III, Jamaal Tinsley, Alec Burks, and Diante Garrett have all spent time at PG. Lucas, Tinsley and Burks have all started games this season for the Jazz, each playing very poorly (Tinsley bad enough to be waived). Neither of Burks or Lucas have shot better than 36 percent from the field or 25 percent from 3. Burks is averaging 2.6 assists per game and Lucas 1.8. To be fair to Burks, he is a SG who has split his time between PG and SG, but even so, he should be assisting more in his 28 minutes per game. There is no excuse for Lucas. He’s simply not good enough. To illustrate how terrible he has been, Utah signed Diante Garrett from the D-League and he proceeded to outplay Lucas even before having practiced with the team. In his first game with the team, Utah’s only win, Garrett didn’t know any of the teams plays but played through the end of a close game. Garrett is averaging 3.3 assists through his first four games, in only 17.5 minutes per game and his assist percentage is the best on the team. Utah will be extremely reliant on Trey Burke for the rest of the season, once he returns.

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