Toronto Raptors: A Little Consistency Please?
Early in the season, a small victory can be a springboard for any team and the middling Toronto Raptors are no different. All year we have been asking for an efficient game where they put it together and play up to their considerable talent level. On Wednesday, that appeared to happen with a road win over a solid, but unspectacular Memphis Grizzles team. Granted, Memphis is not off to an ideal start either, but they are a veteran team that has had playoff success in recent years and are looked at as one of the main threats to Oklahoma City and San Antonio in the West. We figured that such a win for the Raptors would get them going a bit and affirm our belief in this team. That was the thought. But alas, no more than two days later they played their worst game of the season in a lopsided loss at home to the Derrick Rose-less Chicago Bulls. That is no way to burst onto the scene as a new player in the East. And it may be painfully optimistic of us to even be thinking about them in such terms. They have not earned anything so far and deserve no benefit of the doubt. Yet we are steadfast in belief.
What does this team have to do to become more consistent?
We have addressed at length what we feel that the Raptors have to do to maximize their potential. But it begs the question: Is doing what it takes to win games deviate from general manager Masai Ujiri’s purpose? Or is this the best they’ve got and everyone, us most specifically, need to temper our expectations? Our head is spinning because we see games like the one against Memphis. It had controlled offense with no player monopolizing the shots (18,13, and 10 shots for Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, respectively); efficient shooting numbers (51 percent shooting among the three players listed, including 8-for-15 as a team from 3); and 39 free throw attempts. This is a recipe for success even though it is not realistic to assume shooting numbers this efficient every game.
Or you have games like Friday at home against the Chicago Bulls without Derrick Rose. One would think that 90 points or so should give the Raptors a great chance to win. But they lost by 16. And DeRozan was spectacular (13-for-22 and 4-for-6 from 3 for 37 points). We stated in previous columns that if DeRozan was going to be good, then the Raptors would be, because we expected Jonas Valanciunas to be consistently excellent; the unquestioned centerpiece of the team. We would not have expected many games where DeRozan had that sort of output in a blowout loss. Of course, Valanciunas had only five shots and was in foul trouble. On Friday it was Kyle Lowry’s turn to put up a dud. He shot 3-for-15 and was 0-for-7 from 3. It seems like every game on of the Raptors’ main offensive threats turns in one of these games. This tells us there is far too much contested jump shooting on this team.
And therein lies the problem. Because the assist numbers with this team are so painfully low (16.4 per game, last in the NBA by more than one assist per game; their 13.1 assist ratio–former ESPN stat man John Hollinger’s method measured by the percentage of a team’s possessions that end in an assist–is also last in the NBA), there are not as many easy baskets in this offense. Simply put, the outside shooting numbers are going to have to continue to be great for this team to win games. And make no mistake, games like the ones in Memphis are more of an outlier than anything else. They are capable, but to expect DeMar DeRozan to consistently hit outside shots is a reach given his history.
No NBA team is going to be efficient on offense every night. But these assist numbers are a very telling statistic in our minds. When you cannot set up your players for good shots, the alternative is isolation offense. When DeRozan is hot, that can be a joy to watch. But when it isn’t working, it looks like a stagnant exercise where anyone without the ball is just at the aggressor’s mercy. That certainly wasn’t the preseason plan.
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