NBA: And We’re Back, Part 4 — Some West Talk
In case you hadn’t heard, Kawhi Leonard is poised for a breakout year in 2013-14. Photo Credit: Mark Runyon, Basketball Schedule
Check out part 1 on the Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder;
Part 2, on the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Minnesota Timberwolves;
And part 3, on the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets.
As we tip off the season, there are six teams I believe are capable of winning the West. SIX!!! I have already touched on Oklahoma City in part one of my NBA preview, but wanted to at least, briefly touch on the some of the other contenders out West — San Antonio, Houston and Golden State. No better place to start than with the defending Western Conference Champs.
Rotating The Back Wheels
I am probably the 200th columnist to say this, but Kawhi Leonard seems poised for a breakout season this year. If this leap we are all predicting does happen — and, really, it should — it will be coming at the perfect time for the Spurs. Manu Ginobili is fighting on his last limb and for the Spurs to continue to incomprehensibly remain relevant at the top of the league they need Leonard to begin to fill the void Manu is leaving as his skill depreciates. The Spurs coaching staff has noticed this as well and that has reflected in their use of Leonard throughout the preseason. Leonard has spent long stretches as the “go-to guy in Spurs units missing Tony Parker or Tim Duncan and in general is being asked and allow to do more. Specifically, Leonard obviously has much more freedom to handle the ball in transition and also has a new role as the ball handler in some of the pick-and-rolls that happen so much in the Popovich’s European Dribble Drive Motion offense.
Kawhi has the pieces to have success in these new situations, as well as a great supporting cast and coaching staff around him to help his transition into a more featured role. Playing out the pick and roll will almost definitely mean more mid-range jump shots for Leonard, but Leonard has been accurate on these shots in his career so far — though, obviously, in a limited sample size. Leonard shot 48.3 percent on 116 mid-range shots last season, occasionally flashing an nice jump shot and utilizing big hands, ability to finish with both hands and leaping ability to finish on close shots outside of the paint. These shots are the type of shots you need to hit to be effective out of the pick-and-roll and generally for a player to have continued success as his usage rate rises. Leonard’s usage rate definitely projects to rise, as he only earned a 16.6 usage percentage last season — the sixth lowest number of the 16 Spurs that logged playing time last year.
Leonard will also find himself attacking the rim more consistently, and again, he should succeed as he gets more of these touches. Leonard was above league average around the rim his rookie season and near the top of the league average this season — as the shot chart above shows. Via the chart you also see Leonard was good at those in between shots that attacking players are forced into when cut off by interior defenders. In the playoffs Leonard showed us he could be even better around the rim.
That 72.73 percent mark around the rim is in the LeBron James–Andre Iguodala stratosphere and if Leonard can replicate this type of success during the season, he will be tough to beat attacking the basket. That should hold up with more touches as well. In the playoffs Leonard took 99 of these shots in just 21 games. Leading into the playoffs, Leonard had barely taken 400 of these shots his whole career. The one question mark regarding Leonard’s heightened usage is his ability as a passer, but it is not outlandish to think his assist rates will increase with higher usage rate. Overall, Leonard projects to handle a heightened role very well and the Spurs should be a better team because of it — which is scary to think about.
But as Leonard usage increases, Ginobili’s usage — 24.4 percent; third on the team — will most likely decrease. That may not necessarily be an issue for Giniobili or the Spurs, though. Here is Manu’s shot chart for last season:
Ginobili simply was not as good around the rim as he was at the peak of his career. However, if Kawhi is capable of filling the void Ginobili is leaving, Ginobili may still find success in a scaled back role that looks more like the role Leonard has had over the last couple of seasons. Specifically, Ginobili can find new life as a spot up, corner shooter who only occasionally attacks the rim out of necessity. If Ginobili abandons his attacking game and his mid-range shots — which were already being marginalized over recent seasons — and focuses his efforts on his 3-point stroke he can still be successful. Ginobili was a dead eye from the corners last season and his 3- point shooting above the break can improve — especially if he abandons the off the dribble 3 looks. It will be a different role for Ginobili, but one that affords him the ability to still effect the team positively as his peak years come to an end.
Dwight Howard is the big addition for the Houston Rockets. Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Flickr.com)
Additions and Improvements
Both the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets were “happy” to be in the playoffs last season. But those up and coming teams quickly became contenders in no small part due to their main free agent acquisitions — Dwight Howard for the Rockets and Andre Iguodala for the Warriors. The question is just how much of a difference each player will make.
With Howard the obvious improvement will be made on the defensive side of the ball, where the Rockets were average at best and where Howard historically has a championship making impact. However, there is at least a small reason to doubt whether Howard’s will have the impact projected. Houston was an average defensive team last season but the reason they pulled themselves that far was mostly the defensive prowess of Omer Asik. With Asik off the floor Houston only managed a 107 defensive rating — which would rank around the bottom of the league, per NBA.com — and were above average defensively with Asik on the floor. That rating is awfully close to the Los Angeles Lakers’ deplorable 107.8 defensive rating when Howard was not on the floor. The Lakers finished just below the Rockets defensively for the season, so it is not a reach to question whether Howard can pull the Rockets any higher than Asik did defensively. Asik is an elite defensive presence and while Howard may be a better one, the Asik-less Rockets looked a lot like the Howard-less Lakers defensively and Howard was not able to pull the Lakers to heights higher than Asik did with the Rockets. There is at least a chance Howard’s effect defensively is marginal at best.
Offensively things are equally hairy, as far as figuring out how Howard will impact. The Rockets offensive thrived last year, mostly due to a earth shattering pace and tempo and an offense that was mostly structured around pick and roll, ball penetration, floor spacing and 3s. Dwight Howard is a dynamic pick-and-roll playe, and at peak speed and athleticism would thrive on a team playing at fast speeds. But Howard is also demanding a significant amount of post touches, touches that fly right in the face of everything Houston was about offensively last year. Now Howard has looked more refined in the post during the preseason and appears to be a willing passer from the block. If anybody, Kevin McHale can find a way to make this work within the Rockets grand scheme on offense. The Rockets will look — for better or worse — different on offense, though.
And despite all these question marks, they will be a better team because of Howard. So far, Howard looks more like “old Dwight” as opposed to “Lakers’ Dwight,” which means a defender that can transform any unit into an elite one defensively. And Houston continues to look like a power offensively, and one that can become a Miami Heat or Spurs like juggernaut if allowed time to mesh and grow.
For the Warriors, Iguodala fits in more seamlessly — or at least in a manner that is easier to quantify. With Iguodala and a healty Andrew Bogut the Warriors undoubtedly be a better defensive team and the Warriors were a top 10 defensive outfit to finish out last season (though few acknowledged it). Iguodala is one of a couple perimeter players who can dynamically shape a defense — the only other perimeter player being LeBron James. The Nuggets were the 11th best defense in basketball last season and were the sixth best defense in basketball after the All-Star break (via NBA.com’s defensive rating). The season prior, without Iguodala, the Nuggets ranked 19th in defensive rating. Similarly the Philadelphia 76ers only ranked 15th in defensive rating this year after ranking third the season before with Iguodala on the roster. If Iguodala can have the same effect in Golden State he can morph a defense that was already playing at an above average clip to finish last season into an elite force on the defensive end.
Offensively Iguodala should mesh perfectly with the Warriors as well. Specifically, while Iggy is not the shooter most Warrior wings are, he will help the offense in almost every other conceivable way. He is a top level passer for the wing position and his passing ability as well as his bent to passing over shooting has been on full display this preseason — Iguodala logged 14 assists in a single preseason game. Iggy also, as touched on earlier, is one of the most efficient finishers in the NBA and is second only to LeBron when it comes to scoring at the rim. The Warriors lacked a real presence in the paint last season outside of the Carl Landry–David Lee combo. The addition of Iguodala should more than make up for Landry’s departure and increase the team’s offensive production even more. Overall, Iggy should have a dynamic impact on both ends for the Warriors.
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