Oklahoma City Thunder: 5 Bold Predictions

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the 2013-14 season as one of the top teams in the Western Conference. But this season will be full of challenges, both with injuries and some very tough competition. Now that the preseason is finally over, let’s see my five predictions for the Oklahoma City Thunder this year. It’s gonna get wild.

1. Steven Adams will hit the rookie wall — hard.

We love Steven Adams. How can you not? It’s been business time (New Zealand stand up!) for him during this preseason, and he looks primed to contribute this season. The Thunder need him as well, since their frontcourt is paper-thin. Kendrick Perkins holds this team back offensively as the starting center. Obviously, as Perkins’ defenders point out, Perkins isn’t on the floor for his offense. But Perkins’ defense has taken steps back in recent years as his athleticism has declined. What it really comes down to is his contract: he’s due $18 million over the next two years. Everyone agrees that his contract makes him an albatross. However, GM Sam Presti declared that the Thunder have no plans to amnesty Perkins.

But what does this mean for Steven Adams? Well, if he continues his preseason magic for the entire season, awesome! But that may not be the case. Adams was too inconsistent throughout his freshman year at Pitt to make me believe he will continue this hot streak. And keep in mind that the Thunder have yet to encounter a tough, physical center in the preseason. There will be stretches this season where Adams looks absolutely lost. He will have a good, solid season, don’t get me wrong. But don’t expect Adams to immediately replace Perkins as the starting center.

2. Reggie Jackson and Russell Westbrook will play together a lot — and will be very effective.

Reggie Jackson demonstrated that he can ball in last year’s playoffs. He will have four to six weeks to further prove his worth as Westbrook nurses his injury. But once Westbrook becomes healthy, a backcourt consisting of these two point guards will be dangerous. Maybe it’ll be dangerous because they have no other option at the two-guard, but it’ll be dangerous nonetheless.

The problem is that there are no stats that back up my prediction just yet. If you look at the lineup breakdowns, Jackson and Westbrook didn’t played together enough last year to judge their contributions. But Jackson’s opportunity to run the point without Westbrook will allow him to mature as a player. He will be able to run an effective half-court offense and cut down on turnovers. Once Westbrook returns from injury, he’s likely to not play with the reckless abandon we are used to seeing. For good reason too, as we all want him to be careful and stay healthy.

Therefore, Westbrook will be able to save his athletic bursts for when it really matters, because he will be playing off the ball more. Reggie Jackson’s success at the point will be invaluable to the Thunder without Westbrook, but will be even more helpful with Westbrook.

3. The Thunder will trade Perk, PJIII and a first-rounder to Philly for Thaddeus Young.

This is fairly unbold. It’s been a trade that has been discussed throughout the entire offseason (even here at HoopsHabit!), but it still makes a lot of sense. The Sixers are trying to tank HARD. And after seeing Phoenix’s most recent trade that potentially sets them up for four first-round picks, the Sixers will be worried that other teams are trying to steal the No. 1 pick. So they’ll kick their tanking into overdrive and will set Thaddeus Young free.

Thaddeus Young is criminally underrated and would be a huge addition to the Thunder. The problem is that he’s a power forward, whereas Perkins is a center. They’d be sacrificing size big-time in this trade. But Perkins is an absolute liability late in games, when it really counts. Thaddeus beats the pants off Perkins offensively, and could form a nice frontcourt combo with Serge Ibaka.

The Thunder would be give up Perkins and his big contract, Perry Jones III, who has yet to demonstrate that he can play in this league, and what will be a very late first-round pick. It would help the Sixers lose and the Thunder win, which for these two teams is a total win-win.

4. Kevin Durant will win MVP.

It sure will be close, but this is Durant’s year. I’ve written about this before, and I believe that the cards are in place for Durant to win his first MVP. For starters, he’s absolutely going to destroy the scoring title. Last season, Carmelo Anthony blocked Durant from winning his fourth straight scoring title. Durant won’t forget that. Because of the extended time without Westbrook, he’s going to need to put up big numbers. He’s proved in limited preseason minutes that he’s still arguably the best offensive weapon in the league. I think he’s going to average over 30 points a game in another 50-40-90 year, proving he’s MVP worthy.

In addition, I think LeBron James will need to play at a superhuman level the entire year to win a third straight MVP. Voters are smart. They know that the only people to ever win three straight MVPs are Larry Bird and Wilt Chamberlain. Michael Jordan didn’t even won three in a row! LeBron will have to look markedly better than last year to win it again this year.

Combining voter fatigue for LeBron and Durant’s chance to put up huge numbers without Westbrook, there’s no time like this season for Kevin Durant to go get his MVP. I think he finally does it.

5. The Thunder will lose to the Clippers in the Western Conference Finals, making people start to squirm.

The Clippers will be reeeeeeally good. This team would give the Thunder worlds of trouble, but Doc Rivers as coach could tip the scales. The Clippers’ bench is astronomically better than OKC’s, as they can throw Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes in the second rotation. Sorry Jeremy Lamb and Ryan Gomes, but you’re not cutting it against the Clips.

If they meet in the playoffs, the Clippers could beat the Thunder fairly handily. Durant won’t go down easy, but Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook will cancel each other out like they’ve done in the past. In addition, the Thunder’s bigs can’t handle the athleticism of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan (Side note: Blake is going to break out this year. He’s officially underrated and will respond to critics in a big way this season). I’m projecting these two teams to meet in the WCF, and the Clippers to win in 5 games.

If that happens, things could get messy. Coach Scott Brooks‘ seat could start getting hot. The window for this Thunder team could start closing. I don’t think the day of reckoning comes when Durant leaves for Houston and Russ leaves for LA, like Jalen Rose predicted. But the arrow could start pointing down if this season ends poorly for OKC.

So there you have it. Mind you, don’t be surprised if all these predictions are wrong at the season’s end. But that’s my $0.02 on the OKC Thunder’s 2013-14 season.

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