The Daily Fix: Featuring a Detailed Prediction of All Things Eastern Conference
On the last day of the NBA preseason, instead of recapping all the half-hearted games, I’ll be writing my Eastern Conference team-by-team win predictions, playoff seedings and playoff outcomes. During the summer and earlier in the fall, I made my opinions known about potential playoff teams, but after watching the preseason and spending countless hours in thought, I’ve changed my tune about a few things. However, these win predictions are going to be gospel and I’ll defend them until they become mathematical impossibilities. I’ve been picking each team’s wins in the NBA, NFL and MLB since I was about 10 years old, so I’ve had some experience in the process (it took about seven or eight years to beat my dad in picks, but now, I can proudly say that I beat him about half the time; even at 70, the old man still knows his stuff).
Eastern Conference Playoff Teams
1. Miami Heat (61-21)
2. Chicago Bulls (59-23)
3. Indiana Pacers (57-26)
4. New York Knicks (54-28)
5. Brooklyn Nets (53-29)
6. Detroit Pistons (43-39)
7. Toronto Raptors (41-41)
8. Milwaukee Bucks (39-43)
Quick hits: Miami’s competition in the East has gotten significantly better and they’ll need to fight well into April for the first seed … Indiana and Chicago will develop a serious rivalry throughout the season, culminating in a fantastic second-round matchup that will include at least one ESPN Instant Classic … The Knicks will win one more game than the Nets, but the Nets might beat them in the first round (keep reading and you’ll find out for sure) … Detroit, Toronto and Milwaukee are all very close to Cleveland, Washington, Atlanta and to a slightly lesser extent, Boston … Toronto has Kyle Lowry in a contract year, Rudy Gay with new eyes, a future top-five SG in Terrence Ross (that’s a bold statement, but I love his game), a solid wing in DeMar DeRozan and an up-and-coming center in Jonas Valanciunas; I’ve just started to warm up to them as a unit, but I think they’re more talented than most other teams in that range, aside from …. Detroit has to make the playoffs. I had them out of it until the last few days, but with Andre Drummond’s play in the preseason, coupled with Josh Smith’s seemingly improved outside shooting and Chauncey Billups’ possible (and likely) calming influence on Brandon Jennings, I think they have enough to outlast the rest of the pack (and possibly start pushing towards New York and Brooklyn if things fall into place) … Milwaukee is my team this year and I believe they will be the beneficiaries of a weak Eastern Conference. The Bucks will be a solid defensive team under Larry Drew (Atlanta was third in the league in defensive rating in 2011-12) and hopefully, guys like O.J. Mayo, Caron Butler, Brandon Knight, Ersan Ilyasova, Gary Neal and Carlos Delfino can get on the same page, and churn out enough offense each night to give their team a chance. This team will be no flash and all grit: That’s a beautiful thing in this day and age (a day and age in which ESPN calls Kyrie Irving better than Derrick Rose; they lost some credibility as a company with that statement).
Eastern Conference Wiggins Hopefuls
9. Cleveland Cavaliers (37-45)
10. Washington Wizards (36-46)
11. Atlanta Hawks (32-50)
12. Boston Celtics (32-50)
13. Charlotte Bobcats (27-55)
14. Orlando Magic (22-60)
15. Philadelphia 76ers (13-69)
Quick hits: Cleveland narrowly misses the playoffs, with a lack of offensive diversity and wing defenders hurting their case. They should have taken Victor Oladipo to play next to Kyrie Irving, but instead, they drafted a power forward, which they had done two years earlier. Anthony Bennett is the polar opposite of Tristan Thompson; Thompson is all potential and measurements (he switched his dominant hand heading into his third NBA season; bizarre) while Bennett has a street-ball game that looks like it’s been refined from years of half-court three-on-three. I don’t see how they can be on the court together unless the team’s going small, which would probably hurt them more than it would help them … Washington suffers another disappointing season, as John Wall and Bradley Beal fail to lead the team to April’s festivities and Otto Porter helps minimally. Acquiring Marcin Gortat will help only slightly, as the team will continue to struggle with “changing the culture,” something they thought they had done when they unloaded me-first guys like JaVale McGee, Nick Young and Andray Blatche … To me, it seems like Atlanta might get blown up sometime in the middle of the season and even if they don’t, they have absolutely no depth (think last year’s Blazers). Can they make the playoffs? Sure. Will one injury seriously derail them? Yes … Boston will be this year’s Wizards; they’ll struggle until Rajon Rondo returns and when he does, their will be a “wait till next year” slogan flying around … Charlotte won’t contend for the playoffs, but if Michael Kidd-Gilchrist evolves offensively, that will be huge for the league’s new Clippers (hey, somebody has to take the title, right?) … Like Charlotte, Orlando won’t contend for the playoffs, but hopefully, Oladipo proves he’s a franchise guy (he’ll win the Rookie of the Year award, no doubt about it). It will be a major plus if Tobias Harris proves that he’s part of the future plans and an even bigger plus if Maurice Harkless can do the same. Right now, Harkless is incredibly raw and although he has intangibles and measurements like MKG, I’m not buying him as a future difference maker yet … The 76ers have the best chance of getting the first overall pick, but this season will be long, sad, pathetic, depressing, tumultuous, frustrating, aggravating and sad (yeah, it’ll be sad twice … possibly three times).
First Round
1 vs. 8: Miami over Milwaukee in four (sounds familiar, doesn’t it?)
2 vs. 7: Chicago over Toronto in five
3 vs. 6: Indiana over Detroit in five
4 vs. 5: Brooklyn over New York in six
Quick hits: No major surprises here … The top three seeds run through their opponents easily, proving how major the disparity in talent is … The Nets beat the Knicks in six, with J.R Smith biting Paul Pierce in the final two minutes of a tied game, which results in a suspension and subsequent drug test.
Second Round (Things get interesting here):
1 vs. 5: Brooklyn over Miami in seven
2 vs. 3: Indiana over Chicago in seven
Eastern Conference Finals (Or in this case, “The Kid’s Dream Come True”)
3 vs. 5: Brooklyn over Indiana in seven
Quick hits: The more I look into it, the more I believe that the Heat aren’t going to win another title … The Nets lack in one major area: wing defense (and youth, but that doesn’t matter much when projecting a single postseason). However, with guys like Kevin Garnett and Brook Lopez inside, they’ll have enough rim protectors to force LeBron out on the perimeter and we all know that he does his best work near the basket. Will Jason Kidd put Deron Williams on LeBron James in a move similar to George Karl putting Gary Payton on Michael Jordan in ’96 (only after losing the first three games)? Garnett and Lopez manning the lane, I think it’s a great idea (you better believe that if Brooklyn get Miami in the playoffs I’m pushing for that matchup big time) … Chicago is really interesting and I believe they have a legitimate shot to win the East, but Indiana matches up very well against them. Coach Frank Vogel will (hopefully) put Paul George on Derrick Rose and the rest of the Pacers’ roster will be able to hold their own against the Bulls. David West is better than Carlos Boozer at this stage,and although Roy Hibbert/Joakim Noah, Luis Scola/Taj Gibson, Danny Granger and Lance Stephenson/Jimmy Butler and Luol Deng are pretty much fair fights, I’m going to say that Indiana’s offensive diversity leads them to a second round victory… When it comes to Brooklyn and Indiana, I just feel as though the Nets will be a superior offensive team. The point guard matchup will sway the odds in the Nets favor and unlike an Indiana-Chicago matchup, where George could play Rose, the Pacers wouldn’t be able to do that against the Nets; there would be nowhere to hide George Hill or C.J. Watson, as both Paul Pierce and Joe Johnson can take smaller guards into the post with ease.
In My Own Defense…
If I had to handicap it, I’d say Miami has the best chance to win the East, but I figured I would go out on a limb this season and go with my gut. My gut tells me that the Heat aren’t making it out of the East and although I’m also hoping for that outcome, I’m able to justify my reasoning, which is enough for me. Let’s face it, we’re all picking blind before we see a regular season game, so we can’t take anything off the table. Obviously, I didn’t take the Heat getting knocked out in the second round off the table. Give me credit for having some guts and not just picking the Heat like everyone else. Plus, don’t we want to see Miami get blown up and LeBron go to the Lakers? Now that would be a nightmare (for everyone but Laker fans, like my good friend Hayes, who hates LeBron but would immediately embrace him in yellow and purple, similar to the way I hated Dwight Howard before he came to Houston).
If you agree with every single thing I just said, don’t comment. If you disagree about anything, think I’m an idiot, want to politely discuss the Eastern Conference or want to try to change my mind, throw a comment at the bottom.
Thanks for reading, folks.
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