Going into the preseason, the small forward position and who would start was one of most talked about topics for the Washington Wizards upcoming season. Would it be the veteran Trevor Ariza or the corner 3-point specialist Martell Webster?
The common NBA fan probably would assume Ariza would be given the role. The nine-year vet made his name in the 2009 playoffs when he averaged around 11 points per game while shooting almost 48 percent from 3-point land during the entire playoffs. He was monumental for the Los Angeles Lakers 2009 championship team. His offensive rating was an absurd 114 in 23 games. However, a big factor was getting hot at the right time and playing with a very good Lakers team where he had a much lesser role the he would have for the 2012-13 Washington Wizards. Last season, Ariza averaged 9.5 points per game along with almost five rebounds and shot 41 percent from the field and 36 percent from beyond the arc. He also missed nearly 30 games and has been plagued by injuries throughout his career. The Wizards are looking to be a playoff team this year and you really have to question if numbers like that can allow the Wizards to score enough points to stay in the playoff hunt.
Webster, on the other hand, signed a four-year $22 million contract this offseason. Some people thought Webster was not worthy of the contract. However, he brings an interesting dynamic that could allow them to have a deadly 1-2-3 punch with John Wall, Bradley Beal and Webster. His ability to spread the floor and shoot 3-pointers at an efficient level opens up driving lanes for Beal and Wall. Webster shot 42 percent from long distance last season. Teams can’t help off him or they will get burned. Wall has shown an increasing ability to beat defenders and find open shooters. Webster shot 58 percent (38-for-65) from the right corner last year and almost 50 percent from both corners. That is unheard of! He poured in 11 points per game last year while playing the most minutes of his career (28.9 per game). An increased role means more production. Something he is capable of.
The defensive end is where this becomes interesting. Ariza has had the reputation of being a solid wing defender and has all the attributes of an extremely good one. He is lengthy and moves well at 6’9″. Last year he posted his best defensive rating of his career, 101. Webster’s was 106 and sadly was the best of his career. Webster has never been a good defender and after eight years in the league, it is hard to imagine that changing. Defense is key at the small forward position because of how loaded the position is around the league. Having 3s who can guard the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Paul George and others is huge. Ariza has the advantage at the defensive end.
But in my opinion the Wizards need offense and Webster will bring what Ariza cannot. The frontcourt for the Wizards is going to struggle greatly to score the basketball. Nene, Jan Vesely, Trevor Booker, Emeka Okafor (when he is healthy) and Al Harrington isn’t exactly an explosive unit. The exceptional guard play is what is going to get this team going. Wall’s ability to drive-and-kick is becoming more and more a part of their offense. Having two knockdown shooters to dish to (Beal and Webster) is going to make John Wall even better. And when he is at his best, there are few guards like him in the league and he makes everyone around him better. It is no coincidence Beal and Webster as well as the team was better when Wall was healthy last season. Defenses are going to have to decide, do we help off shooters or trust who is matched up with Wall? The advantage will go to the Wizards on most nights. With Ariza in, this is not an option. He shot below average last season and this preseason has not given Wizards fans much confidence in his ability to score the basketball. Through five preseason games, Ariza is averaging 6.8 points per game while shooting an abysmal 27.8 percent from the field and 31.3 percent from the 3-point line. Webster, who averaging only two more minutes per game, is averaging 11 points per game and shooting 37.5 percent from 3. Both are not shooting the ball well, but an encouraging sign is Webster getting to the foul line 24 times and attacking the basket more.
So What Will the Wizards Do
I believe Webster should be the starter. However, according to Michael Lee of the Washington Post, coach Randy Wittman has penciled in Ariza as the starter for the season opener against the Philadelphia 76ers on Nov. 1. I can see where Wittman is coming from. Ariza is a superior defender and with Okafor out, the defense will struggle. Also, Webster will be a player that can help a second unit have success in games, which often decides games in this league. If Webster is going to come off the bench, he needs to get starter minutes. He makes life so much easier for Wall and Beal simply by his shooting ability. If the offense struggles early in the year, I would not be surprised to see Wittman switch Ariza with Webster in the starting lineup to help out Wall and Beal. The Wizards need John Wall and Bradley Beal at their absolute best to have a chance to contend for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and with Webster playing starter minutes that is possible.