Dwyane Wade (left) and LeBron James (right) and the Miami Heat will be searching for the rare three-peat. (Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com)
Part One — on the Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Lakers, and Oklahoma City Thunder
Part Two — on the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Minnesota Timberwolves
The top of the Western Conference is dynamically different than what it was mere months ago. The top teams are either aging (San Antonio) or depleting (Oklahoma City), while still holding on to enough of the past to contend; or making smaller moves that can pay off in a major way (Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis). The two teams that surprised last season have also made major moves (Houston and Golden State), which quickly vaulted them from up-and-coming to arrived, dangerous and perfectly capable of taking the conference.
But while the West looks vastly different — with devastatingly more firepower after No. 1 — the East looks very similar to something we have seen before. The Pacers and Heat remain from last season and while Chicago and Brooklyn have entered the fray, Chicago is only returning to a familiar place and Brooklyn is not much more than a re-imagining of old Celtics squads with slightly different commodities at the point, shooting guard and center positions. Overall it is clash of familiar faces, rivalries and matchups as well as a familiar goal: Trying to dethrone the now two-time champions or trying to retain the crown.
Not One, Not Two …
And dethroning the champions should prove to be a difficult task. For the past two seasons Miami has proven to be the most effective team out the East, capable of both offensive and defensive success — Brooklyn, Chicago and New York have all had stretches of competency on both ends, but have never been as good at this as Miami.
Defensively, there is no question this team should be able to hold up. Last season the Miami Heat managed a 100.5 offensive rating (seventh in the NBA, per NBA.com). While that in and of itself is impressive, what should scare teams going forward is the better defense this squad is capable of. Two seasons ago this team was significantly more dynamic defensively over the course of the season. They earned a 97.1 defensive rating — fourth-ranked in a year that saw some of the era’s stingier defenses — and in general were a fully recognized version of what they could be defensively. The reason for the dip last year, statistically, can be attributed to a dip on the defensive end at the beginning of the season — when Miami may not have been as focused, coming off a championship campaign. Before the All-Star break, the Heat were somewhat mediocre on defense last season, earning a 101.8 defensive rating (11th). After the All-Star break — where they went 30-2 and for a long stretch were in the middle of their historic streak — they logged an extremely stingy 98.3 defensive rating (good for fourth by a long shot).
One of the key factors to their success defensively after the All-Star break was the addition of Chris Andersen. Andersen played 42 games for the Miami Heat after being picked in the middle of the season and when Andersen was on the floor, Miami was a stalwart defensively. The Heat managed a 97.3 defensive rating with Andersen on the floor last season — a mark reminiscent of their 2011-12 number and a number that would have only been behind Indiana last year. In general, this signifies the Heat are more effective defensively with a true center on the roster that is capable of snatching up 15 to 20 minutes. Instead of lacking this type of player for the first half of the season, as they did last year, Miami will have Andersen for a full year and also have Greg Oden potentially able to provide solid minutes. Oden should have a similar effect on the Heat defense if he can find his way onto the court and neither Oden nor Andersen should detract from what Miami is doing offensively.
Specifically, they should not detract from the Miami’s ability to maintain the juggernaut coach Erik Spoelstra has created — though we will see that their offense may still have a chink in their armor this year. This juggernaut managed a 110.3 offensive rating last year. This was not only the highest mark in the NBA last year, it is the highest offensive rating recorded since the last incarnation of the Steve Nash–Amar’e Stoudemire combo (remember the good times, Phoenix).
In earning that mark LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Erik Spoelstra were just as innovative as Mike D’Antoni‘s Suns, revolutionizing the way superstars slashers are used offensively. They spread the floor with 3-point shooters and deadly mid-range spot-up shooters (Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem) on Wade and James isolations, using the isos for creating shots for the shooters just as much as they used them to create shots for themselves. And they kept the ball moving, rarely getting bogged down in stagnant plays that are usually typical of teams with transcendent talent, choosing instead to swing the ball rapidly to create open shots and open lanes. The results were nothing short of dominant, as Miami led the league in shooting percentage at the rim, ranked only behind the Warriors in 3-point percentage and finished third in 3-pointers made per 100 possessions.
That 3-point shooting, though, is the one place where Miami may be vulnerable next season. Miami had seven capable 3-point shooters last year — Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers, James, Rashard Lewis and Norris Cole, who was decimal points below the league average from 3. With Mike Miller gone and the effectiveness of Rashard Lewis and Norris Cole shaky at best, Miami is left with only four consistent threats from deep. That is a solid number of reliable floor spacers, except LeBron James cannot space the floor when he is the one who is isolating and Ray Allen and Shane Battier are aging — Battier especially looked worn out by the end of last season.
Look, Miami is going to be a good 3-point shooting team, but there is at least a chance they are not a great one this year. That does not sound horrible at first, but this team relied heavily on their elite ability to shoot the 3 ball last season. Of their points last year, 25.5 percent came via the 3-point shot — the fourth-highest figure in basketball — and in general the spacing they created via the 3-point threat is the reason they were so good around the rim last year. If that threat is not as big next year, you could see Miami’s spacing compromised — if only slightly — and it is not far fetched to think the defensive powerhouses, Chicago and Indiana, could take advantage of the slight slip.
Trying To Keep Pace
The Indiana Pacers are slowly becoming a known property — like Miami and a healthy Chicago have been while at the top of the East for the past couple years. They are an amazing defensive team that struggles to score it at an above average clip and generally look incapable of finding the basket against top level defenses. Their hope is that things stay in place defensively, but they are able to crack into the top 10 as far as offensive efficiency goes.
Indiana’s defensive anchor, Roy Hibbert. (Photo: Mark Runyon, Basketball Schedule)
Defense will more likely than not continue to be a non-issue for this team. Their is a slight chance the departure of Brian Shaw will mean the departure of the defensive mastermind behind Indiana’s success, but further analysis of what Indiana did last year leaves those types of doubts behind. Specifically, Indiana was perhaps the most traditional looking defensive outfit among the top defenses last year — though Memphis was extremely traditional, also. Most of the league’s top defenses are implementing complex schemes in order to maintain their defensive prowess. Indiana and Memphis have not gone this way — the way of Chicago, San Antonio, Miami, Washington, Denver and Golden State — and are resting their defensive laurels on the abilities of their players. Indiana, in fact, never even forces a ball handler away from the screen, a strategy almost every coach with an ounce of defensive fortitude has implemented. Instead of relying on these types of strategies and schemes, Frank Vogel relies on his players’ individual ability to defend in most circumstances. All that to say, even if Shaw was heading Indiana’s defense during his tenure there, the things he was implementing are by no means concepts Vogel cannot continue to relay to his players.
Also, though the Pacers defensive schemes are a bit outdated, the results are indeed modern NBA defense approved. The Pacers can check off everything on the list an advanced stat geek would write up regarding effective NBA defense. Specifically, they were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in defending the paint, against the corner 3 and against the 3 ball in general. Indiana held opponents to 31.8 percent shooting from the corners and 33.2 percent shooting above the break — both the lowest figures in the NBA by a significant margin. Teams only managed to get 4.1 of these corner 3s and 12 above the break 3s up per game (first and second, respectively) and Pacer opponents only made 1.4 corner 3s and 4 above the break 3s per game (tied for first and first) — though it is worth mentioning these are per game numbers and Indiana’s slow pace contributed, slightly, to these low numbers.
Indiana was able to pull off these stellar numbers against the 3 ball mainly because Vogel does not have his perimeter defenders provide much help off of the players they are guarding. Since Indiana’s perimeter guys always remain close to shooters, it is difficult for opponents to even get 3-point shots up, much less knock them down with any consistency. With all of Indiana’s core players returning, there is little reason to believe they will not replicate this style successfully again this year — though question marks regarding C.J. Watson and Chris Copeland‘s ability to defend could become an issue.
One problem that one may assume would arise because of Indiana’s refusal to leave shooters to help would be the potential of relenting shots at the rim because of their reluctance to help. This potential problem never came to fruition last season and the Pacers were actually the best in the league at defending the paint. The Pacers only relented 13.1 field goals per game at the rim and opponents only shot 54.2 percent in the restricted area against the Pacers — both numbers ranked first last season.
The reason Indiana was still able to defend the paint so successfully is almost solely the work of Roy Hibbert. Despite his fluctuating offense, Hibbert was consistently one of the best defenders in basketball last season and in actuality could only be placed second behind Marc Gasol as far as defending the paint — and even then, it is a tough argument. His nearly unmatched ability to stymie any ball penetration Indiana’s perimeter guards occasionally let through is what made this team the powerhouse it was last season. David West and Tyler Hansbrough provided some support and downgrading from Hansbrough to Luis Scola and Chris Copeland may be a cause for some concern. However, there is no reason to doubt this defense will still be top notch with Hibbert anchoring the paint.
So the question will not be whether Indiana maintains their defense, but rather how the Pacers will improve their offense to take the next step into contention. At this point the issues on offense are a deadly mix of systematic and personnel problems that either cannot be fixed or are unwilling to be changed. Systemically, Indiana prides itself on its size and rugged play and how those things make them tough to deal with inside. The issue with this is Indiana is not really dominating the paint area as they envision they are capable of. Indiana only took 24.9 shots per game in the restricted area, the 25th-lowest mark in basketball — though again, Indiana’s slow pace is a small part of the reason that number is so low. They only shot 59 percent on these shots (20th), so in general, they were below average in the area on a low number of attempts — a very bad combination on the NBA’s most efficient shot.
Instead of their size leading to restricted area domination — as would be the most beneficial for their efficiency — it lead the Pacers instead to take a solid amount the murky non-restricted area in-the-paint shots. Indiana took 13.7 of these shots last year (fifth). These shots are typically one of two shots — shots from the post or tricky floaters and push shots in the lane. Traditionally these shots are claimed to be good shots, but the numbers have revealed the post is not all that effective and in fact, post shots are barely as efficient as efficiency destroying mid-range jumpers. The only way to justify touches from this area is to have a truly special post presence on the block — think Al Jefferson, Tim Duncan or Pau Gasol. Indiana does not have a post threat this effective and actually shot only 38.5 percent on these shots, extremely poor considering their size and how much they rely on these looks.
And Indiana does not have any other defining qualities offensively. They are average from behind the arc in almost every way possible and do not take enough mid-range jumpers to call them deplorable or so few of those pull-ups to praise their shot selection. They are team that has defined themselves offensively only by their size and they have not been good enough in paint for that to be their modus operandi. The additions they made — specifically Watson, Copeland and Scola — can potentially provide an offensive boost to their bench unit, but overall it is hard to see anything but a system overhaul fixing this team on offense.
Their is a general consensus that choosing to run more could be the type of quick system fix that could boost Indiana to more tolerable offensive levels. Indiana ranked 25th in Pace (92.84), 21st in fast break points (12.6 per 100 possessions) and 20th in percentage of points via the fast break (12.6) last season. An increase in pace and a commitment to running more may jump start this offense and open the court more for George Hill, Paul George and Lance Stephenson. The problem with this: Frank Vogel has vocally made known his unwillingness to try playing with a little more pace. Vogel has his reasons for taking this stance and is at least partly justified in them. Vogel worries that the team’s turnover rates would ascend to unacceptable levels if the team played faster. That concern is a legitimate one as increased pace tends to leads to higher turnover numbers — the Houston Rockets led the league in turnovers per possession while playing at trailblazing speeds. The Pacers were already one of the NBA’s most turnover prone teams last year — they averaged 16.2 turnovers per 100 possessions last year; second only to Houston — despite playing very slow pace. Playing faster would only hurt them in the turnover department and the team might not be able to recover from a turnover rate that high.
The team needs to do something, though. Despite their close call with championship success last season, teams generally cannot contend if they are average on either offense or defense. Right now, the Pacers are aggressively average on offense. If they want to take the next step, they will have to change that.
Deron Williams and the Nets hope to compete with Miami this year. (Photo Credit: Mark Runyan, Basketball Schedule)
Where Brooklyn At?
While Indiana, Miami and Chicago are all becoming known properties, Brooklyn may be the league’s biggest enigma heading into this season (which thankfully means I cannot use another thousand words on them). They are going to be good; on talent alone this team will get 45 wins. Whether they are able to bump that number up to 50 or 55 and join the ranks of contenders, though, will depend on the level certain players play at and how they mesh under Jason Kidd.
And Jason Kidd may be the biggest question here. We really do not have any basis to gauge how he will fare as a coach and his only real comparisons — coaches that previously played point guard, but have no coaching experience — are Lindsey Hunter and Mark Jackson. Jackson and Hunter’s biggest flaw is something that plagues most former players and is something I am genuinely worried about with Kidd. That is, former players struggle to grasp and implement modern NBA offense. Jackson walked into Golden State literally claiming that he did not have to worry about the offensive side of the ball because of Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry‘s ability to score it. Hunter’s Suns squad was a complete train wreck offensively last season and Jackson’s Warriors squads have actually under performed offensively considering their talent level. Kidd has good assistants around him, but even then Lawrence Frank is known more for his defensive knowledge as opposed to his offensive creativity. The amount of innovation this team shows on offense may be lacking.
But again, they will have the talent to overcome ineffective plays and sets. During their time in Boston, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett played in Doc Rivers‘ system, which was not necessarily the most innovative set up, but managed to at least be decent on the offensive end. Deron Williams, Joe J0hnson and Brook Lopez were saddled with a similar scenario last year in Brooklyn — with Gerald Wallace not providing much offensively and P.J. Carlesimo only dampened those wounds — but still managed to put a top 10 offense on the floor. If the older veterans — Johnson, Pierce, and Garnett — hold up, there is no reason this should not be a solid team on offense this year.
That offense can jump to an elite tier on the backs of Deron Williams and Brook Lopez, as well. While the Indiana Pacers are a prime example of the ineffectiveness of post shots, Lopez is one of the few reminders that post-ups are still effective in the right hands. Lopez is nearly unstoppable on the block and if the coaching staff can find a way to mix his offense with the new faces entering the fold, they can potentially be great offensively. Whether that mixing works and whether they become elite offensively is squarely on the back of Deron Williams. If Williams is capable of returning to peak form for one season, or at least can recapture last year’s post-All-Star brilliance for an entire season, this Brooklyn team will become a force to be reckoned with. They will have to prove themselves defensively — something definitely possible with Frank and Garnett involved — but Deron Williams at full force turns Brooklyn into team that can go toe-to-toe with Miami offensively. No other team in the East can say that, but if the Nets are that team, they will at least have a chance to dethrone the champions.