Kevin Durant: Can He Finally Win MVP?

Kevin Durant looks poised to finally win his first MVP. Photo Credit: GameFaces (Flickr.com)

Kevin Durant enters the 2013-14 season as the consensus second-best basketball player in the world. The No. 1 spot, for the time being, belongs to LeBron James. And deservedly so, as he’s put up superhuman numbers and has been named MVP four times. For three of those MVP wins, Durant finished second, partially inspiring this memorable Sports Illustrated cover. But will this be the year he finishes on top?

Let’s start by looking at Durant’s past MVP near misses. In 2009-10, Durant’s third year in the association, he played all 82 games, averaging 30.1 points (a career high), 7.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists, with 16.1 win shares and a player efficiency rating (PER) of 26.6. Those numbers are insane, but the problem was that LeBron spent his year playing like this:

LeBron was close to a triple-double in 2009-10 (like he always is), with 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game, with 18.5 win shares and a 31.1 PER. That PER is 10th all time. The only people above him are Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan and himself. If you couple that with every MVP voter acknowledging that LeBron’s supporting cast in his final year in Cleveland was pretty much garbage, that certainly wasn’t Durant’s year to win.

Durant also finished second in the 2011-12 season, the lockout-shortened season. It was a less convincing victory for LeBron with only 85 first place votes to Durant’s 24, as some voters hadn’t fully gotten over The Decision. But Durant still had a historically great season, with a 28.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game and a PER of  26.2. It was in those Finals where LeBron established his dominance on the basketball world, and over Durant specifically, by winning his first championship in Miami. But the real history came the next year.

In 2012-13, both LeBron and Durant had seasons so good that it was borderline unfair for one of them to finish second. And it looks really strange on the 2012-13 NBA Awards Voting page to see LeBron’s 120 first place votes to Durant’s 0. But then again, LeBron deserved every one of them, as he had a season of epic proportions. LeBron’s season of 26.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game earned him a 31.6 PER, good for sixth all-time.

But Durant’s season was historic in its own right. He joined the illustrious 50-40-90 club and did so in Larry Bird-like fashion. Obviously, the more shots you take, the harder it is to have a high field goal percentage. Durant attempted 1,433 FGs, third on the list of 50-40-90 club members. The only person above him? Larry Joe Bird.

Durant averaged 28.1 points, 7.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game and a 28.3 PER. His season was so legendary that if you look at all of the MVP winners in the past, and sort them by win shares per 48 min, Durant’s .291 WS/48 would finish 10th. That’s right. An MVP runner-up had the 10th greatest season of all time (by the measure of this one stat, but you get my point).

But how will this year be any different? LeBron is still healthy and has no signs of slowing down. But this might be Durant’s year, even if LeBron is still great. But how? Aren’t the Oklahoma City Thunder weaker with no Russell Westbrook for six weeks? Well, that may be Durant’s MVP saving grace. If he can guide the Thunder to a comfortable winning record during Westbrook’s absence and demonstrate that he will not let his team falter without his sidekick, that will elevate the “narrative” of his MVP season. A nationally televised win against the Los Angeles Clippers without Westbrook doesn’t seem huge, but a Durant-led victory would look great on his MVP resume. One more key to an MVP season: win the scoring title. A Christmas Day domination of Carmelo Anthony at the Garden would be very nice to clearly establish who’s the more prolific scorer.

And don’t count out voter fatigue and a tougher Eastern Conference for LeBron. Voters know Durant deserves an MVP and also know that the only people to have five or more MVPs are Jordan, Bill Russell and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Not saying that LeBron doesn’t deserve to be up there, but voters are going to make him work for it. He’s going to have to have another top-10 PER type season, which will be much more difficult than last year, considering how the East has changed. Derrick Rose is back and Jimmy Butler will continue to smother LeBron every time they play. The Pacers look even stronger than last year, as Paul George will continue to ascend the ranks of NBA stardom. And the Nets have LeBron’s old buddies, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, now and those two teams will fight tooth and nail. If this is a preseason “message,” I can’t wait to see what a regular-season or playoff message looks like:

It sure won’t be easy, but this year may just be the year that Durant overcomes LeBron for the MVP. And maybe that won’t be the only time Durant beats LeBron this season.

It’ll be a season for the ages.

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