NBA: The Minnesota Timberwolves Chances
Minnesota’s All-Star Forward Kevin Love.
This is a follow up to part two of my NBA preview that featured the Cleveland Cavaliers as the team out East with the greatest potential to leap into the playoffs this year. In this follow up we look at the team with the best chance to sneak to in the loaded Western Conference, the Minnesota Timberwolves.
This year’s incarnation of the Minnesota Timberwolves has to be good. Rick Adelman‘s job more or less depends on it and whether and whether or new, but kind-of-returning vice president of basketball operations Flip Saunders has to make drastic changes over the next couple years depends on this year’s success as well. In Saunders case, this is mostly because there is not anymore wiggle room to make marginal improvements in hopes of a healthy roster finally cracking into future playoff scenarios. Almost every core piece on Minnesota’s roster is locked up for at least three seasons on relatively expensive contracts. Those few that are not — namely Derrick Williams, Ricky Rubio and Shabazz Mohammed — are on rookie-scale deals that will turn into expensive contracts once their “cheaper” rookie scale deals expire.
So if this year’s Minnesota team proves unable to fill the lofty expectations we continue to set out for them year in and year out, something drastic will have to happen to to create cap space or garner the assets necessary to appear as a competent franchise projecting towards success sometime in the next 10 years. That drastic move can really take one or two forms: a Kevin Love blockbuster trade or passing on Ricky Rubio’s upcoming, big money contract extension. Neither move is as earth shattering as it appears at first mention and I can guarantee that both options have been mentioned in the front office over the last year. But we are getting ahead of ourselves, as there is at least a decent chance this Minnesota squad finally proves us right and finds their way into the playoffs this year.
This leap into the playoffs will likely have to happen as a result of a much improved offensive attack. Minnesota does not project to improve significantly defensively this season. The additions they have made — Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer and a healthy Kevin Love — are not necessarily known for what they can add defensively. Also there is no indication that their younger players — Rubio and Williams specifically — will figure it out defensively after three seasons of little improvement on that end. Adelman managed to put together some top level defenses in Sacramento and in Houston — with two truly outstanding years with the Rockets and one very good year with the Kings — so there is at least a precedent for him recreating an efficient defense with this Minnesota. But it still looks unlikely he can take this particular squad past marginal improvements defensively. That does not necessarily have to be an issue, though. Minnesota’s defense was below average last season but was not so painstakingly bad that is beyond playoff contention. If they can craft a top level offense on the other end of the court, there is a good chance that can overcome Minnesota’s defensive shortcomings.
So, the question is whether this team can be better on offense. The immediate reaction is yes, as this team was so horrific on offense last year — 100.1 defensive rating, sixth-worst in basketball (per NBA.com) — it almost was contradictory to the level of offensive firepower the roster and the coach were typically known for. The almost obvious offensive improvements project to happen in a couple of ways, the first being the reintroduction of the 3-point shot to the team’s arsenal. Last year Minnesota shot 30.5 percent from beyond the arc last season, the worst figure in basketball by a pretty significant margin. Jose Barea was the only player on the team to shoot better than 34 percent from beyond the arc (36.1) while the league average from three was 36 percent. They only managed 5.9 3s per 100 possessions, second to only the Memphis Grizzlies. I have harped on this in past, but it is impossible to generate the necessary floor spacing in today’s NBA without legitimate threats behind the arc; Minnesota has to be better in this regard if they want to make the necessary improvements offensively
Fortunately, it looks like these improvements will be made. You would figure the return of Kevin Love will bring the return of his typically reliable 3-point stroke — though it is worth mentioning that Love was deplorable from 3 in a small samples size last year. The addition of Kevin Martin obviously proves to be the biggest boost to the roster’s 3-point shooting ability. Martin shot a deadly 42.1 percent from 3 last season on a high number of attempts. He was above average from every spot behind the arc last year except the right wing — where he was still a perfectly acceptable 35.2 percent — and will provide a huge upgrade for Minnesota behind the arc. There is also a chance that Shabazz Mohammed provides some floor spacing for the Wolves; he showed a respectable 3-point stroke in college on a decent number of attempts.
Outside of shooting, Minnesota will need a large improvement from one of their two young players entering the third year of their rookie scale contract. Both Rubio and Williams have been equally porous scoring the basketball so far in their career. The chances of Williams improving seem dim at this point and Williams will be fighting just to get his option picked in the first parts of this season, so Rubio will most likely have to be the last source of Minnesota’s offensive improvement. Rubio has to become a competent scoring threat this year for Minnesota to be successful. He has proven to be an offensive maestro when it comes to ball distribution over the last couple of seasons, but he has been essentially incapable of scoring the basketball on his own. Some type of jump in efficiency — either from 3, behind the arc or around the rim — will be necessary for Minnesota to have the necessary offensive success this year. A lot rests on Rubio’s shoulders, but if he is able to deliver, Minnesota very well may be looking at the playoffs this year.
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