Denver Nuggets: Can The Nuggets Repeat Their Success?

The Denver Nuggets enter the 2013-14 season is a funny situation. After a franchise-record setting season, where George Karl and Masai Ujiri won coach and executive of the year awards, respectively, the Nuggets enter 2013 with a lot of questions. The Nuggets cleaned house after a disappointing first-round loss to the Golden State Warriors. Not only are Karl and Ujiri gone, but All-Star Andre Iguodala departed as well. In my opinion, Iguodala might not of been their biggest loss. Rebounding machine Kosta Koufos finds himself in Memphis after averaging 12 points and 11 rebounds per 36 minutes in his final year in the Mile High City. To make things worse; the Nuggets lost spark plug Corey Brewer, as well. Did Denver do enough to replace these departures? Let’s find out.

Let’s take a look at what Iguodala brought to the table in 2012-13:

Season	Tm	PER	TS%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	WS	WS/48
2012-13	DEN	15.2	.520	8.5	22.4	2.5	1.5	17.1	5.6	.097
Career		16.9	.550	9.0	21.0	2.4	1.1	14.9	66.8	.123

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2013.

As you can see, most of his numbers were below his career rate. In Denver, Iguodala became a less efficient scorer and turned the ball over at a higher clip. His 15.2 PER is average. Literally, average. A 15 PER is considered the average mark for a NBA player, so Iguodala’s mark is replaceable. Am I saying Igoudala is an overrated player? Nah, I wouldn’t judge his whole career off one season. I do think, however, his impact on the Nuggets was overrated and Denver will be fine without him.

Iguodala now plays for the enemy. (NBA.com photo)

Next up is Kosta Koufos. Lets take a look at his contributions in 2012-2013:

Season	Tm	PER	TS%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	DWS	WS	WS/48
2012-13	DEN	17.2	.585	17.3	2.6	1.2	4.4	8.7	2.5	6.5	.171
Career		16.0	.562	17.1	3.2	1.2	4.2	11.6	5.0	10.8	.137

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2013.

Koufos was starting to develop nicely as a player this past season. He was a nice big man to have come off the bench and eat some minutes–and the numbers prove that. Koufas cut down his turnover rate and increased his efficiency in his final year with the Nuggets. At 23, it seemed like the former Ohio State Buckeye could develop into a NBA starter a couple of years down the road.

The last major departure for the Nuggets was former Florida Gator Corey Brewer. Here is a look at Brewer’s stat line:

Season	Tm	PER	TS%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	WS	WS/48
2012-13	DEN	14.7	.506	6.6	9.5	3.0	0.9	9.4	3.9	.093
Career		11.9	.489	7.1	10.4	2.7	0.9	12.0	8.5	.044

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2013.

I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves. Brewer was a nice offensive spark plug off the bench, but outside of that offered little value for the Nuggets. The three major losses for Denver offered a total of .361 win shares per 48 minutes. Lets see what the three major new comers for the Nuggets bring to the table.

Can the Nuggets replace Brewer’s offense? (NBA.com photo)

Nate Robinson is coming off a career year for the Chicago Bulls. Robinson not only grew as a player, but also demonstrated great leadership skills in Chicago. Lets take a look at his 2012-13 numbers:

Season	Tm	PER	TS%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	WS	WS/48
2012-13	CHI	17.4	.540	5.1	31.4	2.2	0.4	12.6	5.9	.136
Career		15.9	.535	6.1	22.5	2.0	0.2	12.1	25.7	.100

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2013.

For the sake of the article, lets assume that Nate can repeat his 2012-13 season in Denver–something I’m hesitant on. His 31.4 percent assist rate says it all–Robinson stopped being a selfish player. I think that characteristic will carry over in Denver. If Robinson can keep playing a 17.0-plus PER rate in Denver, the Nuggets will be just fine.

The second major acquisition for the Nuggets was forward Darrell Arthur. Arthur was acquired through a trade with the Grizzles. Lets see what he brings to Denver:

Season	Tm	PER	TS%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	WS	WS/48
2012-13	MEM	11.8	.477	10.3	5.9	1.3	2.8	10.2	1.7	.084
Career		12.9	.492	12.9	5.3	1.7	2.9	10.6	7.4	.079

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/11/2013.

Nothing flashy for the former Kansas JayHawk. I don’t see him getting many minutes this year. He will probably be used as another big man when needed. Those numbers will be serviceable if he ends up being the ninth or 10th guy in the rotation.

J.J. Hickson could prove to be the pickup of the year for the Nuggets (NBA.com photo)

Next, but definitely not least, is J.J. Hickson. Hickson is my sleeper pickup for the Nuggets. Lets take a look at what he did in Portland last year.

Season	Age	Tm	PER	TS%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	WS	WS/48
2012-13	24	POR	19.7	.591	20.7	6.6	1.1	1.7	14.4	6.9	.142
Career			16.3	.544	17.1	5.8	1.1	1.9	14.0	15.9	.093

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/11/2013.

The turnover rate is a little high for my liking, but his rebounding should replace Koufos and then some. A 19.7 PER is fantastic–so there is not much to complain about. It will be interesting to see how his game carries over.

The Nuggets’ three major offseason pickups have a combined win shares of .362. Compare that to the .361 win shares of their three major offseason losses; I would say the Nuggets are just fine.

While win shares isn’t the perfect statistic and is only one variable to look at, I think it does give a good perspective of the talent on the roster. The 2013-14 Nuggets roster has comparable talent to the 2012-13 version. The key questions for them would be health. Their season could rest on when Danilo Gallinari comes back. Do I think Denver will tally off another 57-win season? No, but I do expect something close to 50 wins and another trip to the playoffs.

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