FantasyHabit: Elite First-Round Selections Not Named LeBron James or Kevin Durant
By Kevin Cook
Welcome to FantasyHabit, the column for those HoopsHabit-ers who simply can’t get enough NBA, whether you be fantasy basketball managers, league commissioners, or simply numbers junkies like myself. I have been the commissioner of my fantasy league for three years now and during the magical time of year that is the NBA season, I spend my days and nights trolling Basketball Reference, NBA.com, and RotoWorld trying to read the league tea leaves and gain an edge in competition. Generally, my thoughts and analysis will be geared towards the standard 10- or 12-team, eight-category league, except where I specifically designate otherwise.
Today, we’ll break down the next tier of fantasy players after the uber-elite duo of LeBron James and Kevin Durant. After all, not everyone can pick first or second, but there is plenty of value to be had in this next group, and who you take with the third or fourth pick will largely depend on what sort of team you plan to field this season, as there are pronounced differences in what James Harden, Chris Paul and Stephen Curry bring to the table.
| Player | G | MP | FG% | 3PA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 78 | 38.2 | .451 | 7.7 | .900 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 22.9 |
| Kevin Durant | 81 | 38.5 | .510 | 4.1 | .905 | 0.6 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 28.1 |
| James Harden | 78 | 38.3 | .438 | 6.2 | .851 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 25.9 |
| LeBron James | 76 | 37.9 | .565 | 3.3 | .753 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 26.8 |
| Chris Paul | 70 | 33.4 | .481 | 3.3 | .885 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 9.7 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 16.9 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/8/2013.
When was the last time the MVP had a beard like that? Photo Credit: Angel Blue, Flickr.com
James Harden: The Howard Effect
Though many may consider last season a breakout year for the 24-year-old guard, moving from a sixth-man role in Oklahoma City behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to a starting, primary-scoring role in Houston, he’s poised to take another major step forward this season. Most outlets who have fantasy rankings have him slotted in the top five, but I submit that if he’s any further down than third on any draft board, he’s being underestimated.
With the Rockets’ acquisition of center Dwight Howard, Harden is going to see a spike in several categories and I believe he’ll be more of a valuable fantasy contributor this year than last by a significant margin.
Harden was already elite in 2012-13, but this may be the year he makes a case for being slotted in the discussion with best fantasy player in the league. His efficiency last season left a little to be desired. He shot a respectable .438 from the floor, but both Chris Paul and Stephen Curry were more efficient scorers. One could argue that Harden’s field goal percentage is lower due to the number of threes he shot, but Curry took and made more 3s while managing to post a better percentage from the floor. This season, though, with the addition of Howard, those efficiency numbers should move upward. With more inside scoring, the Rockets are going to see the Howard Effect up close.
During Howard’s last six seasons with the Magic, Orlando was first in the league in 3-point field goals made and the sixth year, they were second.
Howard’s presence inside draws in double teams and shooters are going to find themselves open more often. Remember that last season, Harden was called on to play hero ball in the waning minutes of close games (or called his own number, despite coach Kevin McHale’s wishes, depending on who you ask), which contributed to his high turnover rate and low field-goal percentage. Assuming the Rockets are leading more games down the stretch — and that’s a safe assumption — Harden will get his shots more within the flow of the offense and with less defensive pressure. Expect a significant uptick in Harden’s efficiency from the floor.
His 3-point shooting should also swing northward, even from an already lofty starting point. Last season, Harden was eighth in the NBA with 3-pointers made at 2.3 per game. It’s not unreasonable to think that Harden might break the 2.5 mark this season, with Howard drawing in defenses and leaving Harden (and Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin) open beyond the arc.
It is conceivable that Harden’s scoring — last season, Harden was sixth in the NBA at just a hair less than 26 points per game — may trend downwards, with Howard as a new scoring option and Parsons improving every year, but I suspect it will not drop by much. One thing to keep in mind is that Howard is going to slow down the pace at which the Rockets play. Last season, they were first in the NBA in possessions per game, but that will likely grind to a much slower level by the end of the 2013-14 season. So expect a slight dip in scoring for The Beard, but also in his absurdly high turnover rate. Last year, Harden was second only to Rajon Rondo in coughing up the ball, with a distressing 3.8 per game, enough to lose your team that category often, unless you make a very deliberate effort to bolster your roster with players better at taking care of the rock. But with a slower pace and a legitimate inside scorer, Harden will likely be less egregious this season in turnovers.
Harden is also going to see a major increase in his assist numbers. Even in limited time with Howard in the preseason, Harden and Howard showed some flashes of chemistry and their pick-and-roll game this season will be a nightmare for most defenses if Howard buys into McHale’s system. Harden posted a respectable 5.8 assists last season, putting him just outside of the top 25 in the league, but this year he should show some strong improvement in that category.
Free throws are where Harden can help your team the most, though. Last season, fulfilling the role Houston general manager Daryl Morey envisioned for Harden within an offensive scheme predicated on lots of 3s and lots of shots at the rim, the superstar guard led the league in both free throws attempted (his 10.2 per game better than second-place Durant’s 9.3 by a wide margin) and free throws made (8.6 per game), knocking them down at a solid 85 percent rate. That’s a large enough volume to bring up your entire team’s FT percentage by himself and if that is a category you intend to win, then Harden is the best choice among the second tier of fantasy players.
Photo Credit: Chrishmt0423 (Flickr.com)
Chris Paul: He Is What He Is
What Chris Paul can give you is consistency. His numbers are all-around solid and he won’t hurt you in any category, though he doesn’t provide the same splashy, dazzling box-score-filling sorts of games that a James Harden or a Stephen Curry might give you.
Last season, among point guards who logged more than 30 minutes a game at the position, CP3 was the fifth-most efficient (behind Tony Parker, Steve Nash, Jose Calderon and Rajon Rondo), knocking down 48 percent of his shots. The problem is that very few of those shots come from behind the arc. At 1.1 3-pointers made per game, Paul doesn’t even sniff the top-25 list. Selecting Paul with a pick this high means that you’ll either have to be especially biased towards 3-point shooters in your middle-to-late rounds or be willing to write off the 3-pointer category in the majority of your matchups. Especially when compared to Harden and Curry (two of the NBA’s elite 3-point snipers), Paul brings very little to the table in this particular category.
On the other hand, there’s not much else he does poorly or below average. His .885 free-throw shooting percentage, on average making 4.1 of 4.6 attempts per game (all putting him in the top 10 of NBA point guards), is solid, though trailing both Harden and Curry. Similarly, his 16.9 points per game is nothing special when compared to Harden (25.9) and Curry (22.9). His rebounding is better than you’d expect for his height — he’s listed at 6′ flat — at 3.7 boards per game, but it’s not spectacular.
What is spectacular are Paul’s steals and assists. After all, if you’re drafting for the PG position, those are the categories in which you’d ideally want to see him produce. Paul does and at a prodigious rate. Nobody picks more pockets than Chris Paul at 2.4 steals per game (not even Rondo, who is tied for first with the same rate). Curry and Harden can’t even come close to the kind of production in pilfering that Paul makes look routine. Paul also dishes more assists per game (9.7) than anyone in the NBA but Rondo (whose 11.1 is pretty untouchable).
If you’re looking to lock down steals and assists — and if you’re picking for the PG position, you’re likely to be — Paul is your guy, but consistency is hardly as fun as explosiveness and upside, which the other two in this tier have in spades, and assists can always be found elsewhere. Rondo, in a later round, is a reasonable substitute for Paul, though he has major deficiencies that CP3 lacks. Paul is the safe pick here, but not the most fun.
Stephen Curry set a single-season record in 2012-13 with 272 3-pointers. (Flickr.com photo/Keith Allison)
Stephen Curry: 3-Point Assassin
Curry played 78 games last season, an enormous improvement over the 26 games he saw in 2011-12, enough that fantasy owners might not feel as hesitant about selecting him with a top-five pick as they would have this time last year. But history of injury is something to at least consider when contemplating picking anyone in the top half of the first round and Curry’s track record isn’t perfect.
But gracious, can he score. His 3.5 3-pointers made a game is light years ahead of anyone else in the league. Second 3-pointer banana Kyle Korver, who isn’t worth a look until the penultimate or final round of the draft, makes 2.6 a game, nowhere near what Curry produces regularly.
Curry’s free-throw percentage is terrific (90 percent), but he doesn’t get to the line often enough, only attempting 3.7 a game. He won’t hurt you in the FT percentage game, but he won’t help you that much with that little production, either.
Curry’s scoring is elite, his 22.7 per game good for seventh in the NBA. His assists are solid, though behind the most elite dishers, at 6.9 per game, putting him 15th in the league. Curry will get you some steals, too (1.6), but again — not elite.
But come on — if you’re contemplating picking Curry, you’re banking on scoring and 3s and he’ll provide those for you in copious amounts … assuming he doesn’t go down with an injury and contribute nothing for long stretches of games.
Kevin Cook is a third-year commissioner of his fantasy league (Yahoo, The Cook Foundation) and a stats geek of the highest order. Follow him on twitter @fantasyhabit and tweet him your fantasy basketball questions or gripes.
[slider_pro id=”31″]