The Daily Fix: Putting the Magnifying Glass on the Southeast Division
Starting when the NBA preseason kicks off next week, I’ll be writing a daily recap of all the previous night’s action, called The Daily Fix (except on Thursdays because you can just watch TNT that night). In the preseason, I’ll focus mainly on team-specific rotational issues, injury updates and anything else newsworthy. When the regular season begins, I’ll be focusing on every issue possible, with the intention of providing all the information that a box score doesn’t give (although statistics will obviously still be used). Each night’s games will be broken into categories, like “Western Conference Showdown” or “Battles Between Eastern Conference Cellar Dwellers Who Are Doing Everything in Their Power to Lose,” for example. The Daily Fix will also serve as an avenue to all the team-specific writing, and I’ll be following all the story-lines that are covered in great detail by the team-specific scribes.
Until the preseason begins, I’ll be going division-by-division to expand on the predictions I made over the summer and to iron out my opinions on how each team and player will fare this season (I promise to call myself out for my incorrect predictions as often as I pat myself on the back for my correct predictions). Next up, the supremely boring Southeast Division:
Miami Heat
I don’t have too many interesting things to say about the Heat, so I’ll keep it short and sweet. Like everyone is saying, Dwyane Wade looked old in last season’s playoffs and a healthy Wade is key to a three-peat. They’ll win between 58 and 63 games and the answers to any and all questions about them will emerge in the regular season and be answered in the postseason. Two years ago, they decided to spread the floor with shooters, put LeBron James in the post and play small ball, which has won them two championships. This season, Ray Allen and Shane Battier are a year older and Greg Oden is in town. I’m banking on Oden getting hurt or running like Gheorghe Mureson. If Oden can play 15 to 20 minutes a night and provide the team with sound post and help defense, then that’ll be huge for them (remember, Joel Anthony used to get big minutes).
That’s really all I got. When you win a championship and pretty much keep the same roster, how much is there really to say? All I wrote about the Heat this offseason was a piece about how LeBron James became the king of the NBA (which seemed to really get a couple of Kobe Bryant enthusiasts angry, but I can understand why they’d be a little on edge). Are the Heat unbeatable? No. As a matter of fact, the East has gotten a lot tougher this offseason, as I outlined in these two pieces (if you’re a Heat fan, check these out before you work out to get a little anger going):
Why the Brooklyn Nets Have a Shot at Beating the Heat
Have the Indiana Pacers Done Enough to Beat the Heat?
For the record, I hope the Heat don’t win a title this year, just so we can see some offseason LeBron drama (it was so fun last time) and a Western Conference champion (when one conference is so much better than the other, it seems like they should get a title, doesn’t it?).
Washington Wizards
Just like Atlanta, Washington is one of the contenders for the bottom three playoff spots in the East (which I wrote about here). Washington will flaunt a strong and full nine-man rotation, with a young foundation of John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter. I liked what they did by bringing in Al Harrington (who can still do what he’s always done; score) and Eric Maynor, and bringing back Martell Webster will give them some depth and a long wing defender.
Health is already a concern for the Wiz, as Emeka Okafor is going to miss at least a handful of games early in the season with an injury. Wall got hurt last season and Nene Hilario gets hurts peeling oranges; the play of those two is going to be indicate whether this squad makes the playoffs or not. While Nene’s averages of 12.6 points and 5.7 rebounds a game weren’t too far below his peak averages, his field goal percentage dropped to 48 percent last year and in his two best years, that number was north of 60 percent (led the league in 2010-11). If Nene goes back to shooting 60 percent or even close this season, that’ll be a great sign for the Wizards.
Washington needs to make the playoffs this season and I think they will. The last time they made the playoffs was in 2008 and the last time they posted a 50-win season was in 1978-79. To put it lightly, this fan base is getting a little inpatient and rightfully so. If all goes well, Wall and Beal will start to look like one of the better young backcourts in the game and Porter will show some promise in his rookie year (I think Porter would make a great stretch 4, partially because of his skill set and partially because he looks so slow in every tape I watch of him).
If their frontcourt can hold it together for them, the veterans off the bench can serve a function, the locker room is unified and motivated, and Wall and Nene stay healthy, this team will be in April’s festivities. If they get off to another awful start, then it’s time to try to unload the big men, embrace a new offensive mentality predicated on small ball, and fire another coach.
Another day in the life of a mid-level Eastern Conference team … .
Atlanta Hawks
As I referred to in both division previews I’ve already written, the Hawks were included in this piece, where I outlined the teams that will be contending for the last three playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Here are a few quick hits:
– Jeff Teague is a solid starting point guard for the Eastern Conference, but he’s really just a poor man’s Mike Conley. If you put Teague on the Houston Rockets, all of a sudden the Rockets are in contention for the best team in the West, possibly the favorite. However, on a team that’s in a transitional faze, Teague won’t look nearly as good. He’s as solid as can be, but he’s just an average starter.
– Depth will be a major problem, especially in the frontcourt. After Paul Millsap and Al Horford, Atlanta has Elton Brand and Gustavo Ayon; that’s really it. John Jenkins hasn’t proven himself yet. DeMarre Carroll is a decent backup. Dennis Schroeder might not be NBA ready. If the injury bug even nibbles on this team, kiss the playoffs goodbye.
– If Jenkins and Kyle Korver start, that’s the one of the three weakest starting 2-3 combinations in the game. I don’t think anyone can argue the validity of that statement.
– This team might get blown up in the middle of the year. Danny Ferry came to Atlanta and started making moves right away, but we don’t know what his endgame is. Millsap and Williams are on a couple of very good contracts; maybe they get moved to a contender at the deadline for some picks, some young talent, or both. Even Al Horford could be on the block if this team isn’t fighting for the playoff spot and although it isn’t likely, you can’t say that it doesn’t sound possible.
Charlotte Bobcats
When I first started writing for HoopsHabit this summer, I wrote several pieces on the Bobcats. After a few weeks, I really ran out of things to say, but everything I’ve predicted about the team are in these articles:
Overpaying Al Jefferson Wasn’t a Bad Move (this was prompted by something I overheard Adrian Wojnarowski say to Brooklyn Nets radio announcer Tim Capstraw after he dropped his son, who has a nice jumper and Euro step, off at basketball camp)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s Offensive Identity Will Become More Clear This Season
Four Things That Will Get The Wheels Turning in Charlotte
Bottom line is this: If Charlotte can keep itself in the playoff race until March, that’s a great sign. Just like the Orlando Magic (we’re getting to that soon), Charlotte needs to identify what roles their young players will fill in the future. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like any of the Bobcats’ four main young players (Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Gerald Henderson and Cody Zeller) will ever be more than decent starting options (Kemba’s a step up from the other three), but in the East, if you have five decent starters and a little bit of a bench, you can hang around in the playoff race. That being said, the Bobcats are going to need a lot of improvement from MKG to make it to April’s festivities, although for a team this young, they’re probably better off being horrible and scoring a top draft pick (I think they call this “trucking” or something like that; I’ve heard a couple people talk about it this offseason).
Orlando Magic
Earlier in the offseason, I wrote a piece about how Orlando should be given credit for rebuilding the right way. That being said, they’re going to awful this year. The best thing Orlando can do is let the kids play, and start to label young players in terms of future roles. If all goes well with Orlando’s youth, this will be how the Magic will label their youngsters after 82 games:
Victor Oladipo: “Face of the Franchise/Point Guard of the Future”
Last week, I wrote an article comparing Oladipo to Russell Westbrook and there are a boatload of similarities between the two (all outlined in the piece; check it out). I doubt that Oladipo will be as good as Westbrook, but hopefully Orlando gives him the reigns early, and lets him become the vocal leader of this young squad. What do they have to lose? Oladipo will be the starting point guard of the future barring something unforeseen happening, but the question is how good will he be? Westbrook averaged 15-5-5 in his rookie season, so if Oladipo can put up similar numbers, that’ll be a great sign.
Tobias Harris and Maurice Harkless: “Starting Forwards of the Future”
Harris and Harkless have a head start on Oladipo because they spent some time together last season. The two played 736 minutes together on the floor, which means that last year Orlando was committed to giving these two a chance to play together. Will it work? Maybe. Can it work? I believe so. Harris looks like a very solid offensive player; the kind of guy who you watched in college and said “this guy would make a good pro,” and after averaging nearly 17 and nine in 27 games in Orlando, he’s proven that. Harkless is much less polished than Harris, but he has spent a year less in the league. He showed little offensively last season until the last month and a half, but by April, he started showing a little more confidence, which is a great sign. Maybe Harris is a starter and Harkless is a third wing. Maybe they’re going to work well together. Maybe it’s somewhere in the middle. The important thing for Orlando is that they find out the answers to those questions this year.
Andrew Nicholson: “Third Big Man of the Future, Carl Landry 2.0”
Nicholson must have driven Jacque Vaughn crazy on the defensive end and on the boards last year, which explains why Nicholson had a handful of highly effective scoring games where he played less than 25 minutes (and they weren’t all in blowouts, either). Nicholson is going to be a solid offensive player in this league, but the question is whether he can play enough defense to make it worth Orlando’s time and energy. He has a little baby hook, some decent post-up moves and some face-up polish, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up 13 to 15 points a game this season (as long as he’s getting 25 minutes a night).
Nikola Vucevic: “Center of the Future”
Vucevic probably already has this label in the bag, but that doesn’t mean he can’t prove Orlando a little something else this season. I’m not sure what kind of player Vucevic will become and I’m not sure that his rebounding numbers weren’t inflated because he played next to undersized power forwards and Nicholson so often last season. However, it’ll be important to see what kind of role he takes on offensively and in the locker room. He strikes me as the kind of guy who can lead by example and maybe he provides Orlando with some kind of infectious grit that helps fuse this squad into more of a cohesive unit. Also, it’s worth watching how he matures as a post player, as it would be a great sign if he came into camp dream shaking (“postin’ and toastin’” as Walt Frazier would say; he rhymes everything and it’s so obnoxious).
Thanks for reading, folks. On Monday, I’ll be going over the best division in basketball, the Southwest.
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