Golden State Warriors: What Would A Fully Healthy Andrew Bogut Mean?

As the Golden State Warriors head into the 2013-14 season, there are expectations that weren’t there for this group of players before.

Golden State surprised many by winning 47 games in 2012-13 before stunning the third-seeded Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs and pushing the San Antonio Spurs to six games before bowing out in the Western Conference Semifinals.

They were able to do that despite getting just 32 games and 786 minutes from center Andrew Bogut, the former No. 1 overall draft pick who was the centerpiece of the March 2012 trade that sent one-time franchise player Monta Ellis and spare parts Kwame Brown and Ekpe Udoh to the Milwaukee Bucks for Bogut and veteran Stephen Jackson.

The Australian-born Bogut did improve a bit on his production in the postseason, posting averages of 7.2 points, 10.9 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game in 27.3 minutes a night. During what regular season action he was able to see, Bogut averaged just 24.6 minutes and posted marks of 5.8 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks.

His player efficiency rating for the regular season was a career-worst 13.8 (his career mark is 16.8) and increased to 16.1 in the playoffs.

Bogut turns 29 in November and the former University of Utah All-American acknowledges that after battling injuries that are more freakish than chronic, there are some things he can’t do as well as he once could. He’s dealt with a stress fracture in his back, a dislocated elbow, broken wrist and broken finger suffered when he was fouled on a dunk and landed awkwardly (video below), plantar fasciitis and a broken ankle that required two surgical procedures to repair.

He told Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News on Tuesday that he’s feeling better than he has in years.

"“I’m just moving like I know I can. I’m moving around, going quick and finishing in the paint, getting offensive rebounds, bringing the ball up if I have to.”"

The numbers make the argument that Bogut is valuable to the Warriors. In his limited regular-season minutes, Golden State outscored their opponents 101.8-99.5 per 100 possessions, as opposed to being outscored 100.7-100.2 per 100 possessions without Bogut on the floor.

They were also a much better 3-point shooting team with Bogut in the mix, shooting 43.8 percent when he was there and just 39.5 percent without him on the court.

In the playoffs, the difference was much more telling. The Warriors averaged 101.4 points per 100 possessions with Bogut and just 98.4 without him. Defensively, the difference was even more stark—foes averaged 96 points per 100 possessions with Bogut, 104.8 without him. The differential was a whopping 11.8 points per 100 possessions (plus-5.4 with Bogut, minus-6.4 when he was on the bench).

There’s no question Bogut can be a force defensively—twice he’s finished in the top five in the NBA in defensive rating (second in 2009-10 at 98.1 points per 100 possessions and fourth in 2010-11 with a mark of 97.3)—and he led the NBA in blocked shots per game in 2010-11 at 2.6 per contest.

The issue is simply whether or not he can stay on the court. Bogut has played a complete season just once in his eight NBA seasons and that was as a rookie in 2005-06.

Since then, he has missed 16, four, 46, 13, 17, 54 and 50 games.

The Warriors added Andre Iguodala, but lost a pair of key reserves in Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry. A healthy Bogut will go a long way toward getting the Warriors back to the postseason and putting themselves in a position to make a playoff run.

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