Washington Wizards: Trevor Ariza At The 4

Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com

As I wrote about extensively last week, Emeka Okafor did a lot for the Washington Wizards last year and projected to be a big part their success this year. With Okafor out indefinitely with a herniated disk, Washington will have to find to fill the void left by Okafor. That is no small task considering how essential Okafor was on the defensive end and all the little things he did to bolster the Wizard offense. One way they may be able to cope, however, is by utilizing Trevor Ariza as a small ball 4.

In small sample sizes, lineups that featured Ariza and only one traditional big man were actually fairly successful for the Wizards last year. Two lineups in particular are worth noting. Lineups featuring Trevor Ariza, Bradley Beal, Emeka Okafor, John Wall and Martell Webster logged a 120.9 offensive rating and a defensive rating of 57 — the group logged 27 minutes of playing time in five games. That 63.9 net rating is quite amazing, but also mostly a factor of the extremely small sample size and also indicates that we cannot draw too much from the numbers. The numbers do, however, point to positive trends that suggest the lineup could be successful in bigger spurts. The lineup also benefited for having four perimeter players on the floor. The lineup averaged 21.3 fast break points per 100 possessions, a figure that would rank No. 1 in the NBA (better than Denver’s 20.4 average). They also made 14.2 3s per 100 possessions on 45.5 percent shooting from behind the arc — they averaged seven 3s on 36.5 percent shooting for the season. Again, this is an extremely small sample size and the numbers would begin to regress to the mean as the lineup logged more minutes; however, there is information here that suggests these groups would be successful.

More telling and relevant information can be found by looking at the lineup featuring the same group with Nene playing center instead of Okafor — this lineup played 27 minutes over 12 games. The lineup logged a 108.5 offensive rating and 107.5 defensive rating, scored 21 fast break points per 100 possessions and made 8.7 3s per 100 possessions on 50 percent shooting from deep. Defensively, the fact that they relented so many points is concerning; however, this may not necessarily been a product of the small ball lineup — instead Okafor’s absence may be the biggest reason for their struggles. This lineup — and the lineup featuring Okafor — actually did a good job defending the paint. The Nene lineup only conceded 42 points in the paint per 100 possessions (which would be eighth-lowest in the NBA) while the Okafor lineup only allowed a stingy 17.8 points (the league low is 38.1).

On offense you can understand why the lineups had the success they did. One of the Wizards biggest issues on offense was floor spacing. Being able to surround John Wall pick-and-rolls with three shooters — Beal, Webster and Ariza — gives him a lot more space to work and a lot of more options for him to be creative out of the pick-and-roll. Also, playing at the 4 accentuates Ariza’s game. Specifically, while Ariza was a good 3-point shooter last year — he shot 36.4 percent from downtown — his success was mostly earned by his success from the corners. Ariza was actually below average above the break last season and his 3-point percentage was carried by his 42.86 percent shooting from the left corner and his outstanding 51.6 percent shooting from the right corner. As a wing player it is harder to spend all of your spot-up time in the corners because those areas are occasionally occupied by power forwards. If Ariza is playing the 4 he can spend most of his time camped in the corners, where he can be extremely effective. There will be questions regarding the defensive abilities of these units — especially with Okafor’s absence — but it will most likely be an option that Washington tries out to make do without Emeka this season.

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