Damian Lillard is primed and ready to win now. Photo Credit: Chrishmt0424 (Flickr.com)
Just three seasons ago the Blazers won 48 games and finished the season sixth in the Western Conference — they have not made the playoffs since. That season they lost in the first round to the eventual champion Dallas Mavericks and believe it or not, the roster was not all that different. The best player was LaMarcus Aldridge (third-team All-NBA that season), Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum manned the wings, Marcus Camby was the center and Andre Miller ran the squad from the lead guard spot. Fast forward to this season and plug in Damian Lillard and Robin Lopez — both upgrades over Miller and Camby — and you should have another 48-win team right?
Here’s the “dilemma” facing Portland this season: They owe the Charlotte Bobcats a 2014 first-round draft pick that is top-12 protected from the Gerald Wallace trade. So, do they want to be a fringe team and barely make the playoffs only to lose that pick? Or would it be in their best interest to have a decent season winning about 43 games and narrowly miss the playoffs?
Let’s take a look at the potential benefits of missing the playoffs and keeping their draft pick one more year. If they narrowly miss the playoffs then they are looking at picks in the range of No. 15 to No. 18 in next year’s draft. In recent drafts, here are some guys that were picked in that range: Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Larry Sanders, Kevin Seraphin, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Jones, Maurice Harkless, and Dennis Schroeder. As you can see, there has been talent to be had in this range in the draft, but are any of these guys worth missing the playoffs again? Would any players with this type of talent vault the Blazers to contender status in the West? The answer is NO.
Franchise-changing talent is found in the lottery, people — and namely in the first five picks of the lottery. Of course there are exceptions and top talent can be found at any level of the draft; we’ve all seen “second-round draft stars” lists before; however, these are few and far between.
Can the Blazers risk upsetting their fan base in a part of the country where they are the only NBA team? They need to take advantage of that position for as long as they can — a team will be back in Seattle eventually — and being in the lottery again is not the way to do it. The reality is — the Blazers offered up their first-round pick, it will end up going to Charlotte either next season or the season after and continuing the losing ways they have seen over the last two seasons is simply not an option.
This team is built to win now. General manager Neil Olshey went out and addressed the issue of depth this offseason, bringing in a plethora of talent to help this starting five — enter Mo Williams, Robin Lopez, Dorell Wright and 2013 lottery pick C.J. McCollum. You win in the NBA by assembling young talent, usually via the draft, and the Blazers have done a great job of doing so. Their core guys are all 28 or younger and primed to step up for this franchise and its fans, and losing — especially if perceived to be done purposefully — is not going to cut it any longer.
The Blazers won 28 games two seasons ago; they upped that total to 33 last season with the arrival of rookie phenom Damian Lillard. With the added depth and experience, I have them as the seventh seed in the West this year with around 45 wins. Next year’s draft is said to be the deepest we’ve seen since 2003 (LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony) but again, those top talents will be in the lottery and the lottery is a desolate place for the torn and tattered; a place where the Blazers will not be anytime soon.
*All stats and figures via www.basketball-reference.com unless otherwise noted.