Washington Wizards: God May Hate Washington Too
, Washington big man recently diagnosed with a herniated disc in his neck (Photo/culhanen/Flickr)
Our nation’s capital has had a rough go at it in the sporting world. Their football franchise is the bearer of the most offensive nickname in all of sports. Their basketball franchise’s old name was kind of a problem also, and became comically ironic when a game of Texas Hold ‘Em went south. Over a three-year stretch each of their three major sports franchises drafted other worldly talent that was destined to make a huge splash in their respective leagues. The pitcher (Steven Strasburg) — who has some of the most overpowering stuff in baseball — had to undergo Tommy John surgery less than four months into his professional career, made his comeback and helped lead his team the playoffs only to see an innings limitation stop him from actually pitching in those playoffs. The point guard (John Wall) — who gets up the court so fast that it looks like he is gliding (not an exaggeration) — has yet to register a full season of NBA basketball, and has barely amassed three seasons of games in his first four seasons in the NBA. And their quarterback (Robert Griffin III) — who is a human incarnation of a created Madden player — has a machine on his knee that looks like it pumping Dr. James Andrew brand steroids directly into his previously torn ligaments.
The city’s fortunes continued to take a turn for the worse at the end of last week. The Washington Wizards were projected to be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, and the first playoff contender the Wizards have put out since the last Hold ‘Em hands were played. The high projections were based on the continued development of their younger talent, and the idea that the team’s core was finally going to be healthy. But as we sit here, one week before training camp, the injury bug is already starting to hit the Wizards hard. Forward Chris Singleton and big man Emeka Okafor both have both sustained severe injuries. Singleton recently underwent surgery on his broken left foot and will out for up to two months, while Okafor has been diagnosed with a herniated disc and is out indefinitely (source). Okafor is obviously the biggest loss of the two; he is Washington’s best post and interior defender and his loss could have a noticeable effect on Washington’s stout defense. It is not fully clear, though, how Washington will fair without him.
Washington garnered one of the NBA’s top defenses last year and Okafor was a huge part of it. With Okafor on the floor the Wizards posted a 102.4 defensive rating (all stats via Basketball-Reference today) which would rate out to the third best defense in basketball last year — behind stalwarts Indiana and Memphis. That number jumps up to 104 without Okafor in the lineup and while that is still good, it is much closer to the league average (105.9). Okafor is not as menacing of a defense presence as some of the NBA’s top interior defenders — Okafor only averaged one block per game last season — but he has always been a heady defender capable of stifling the paint and effective defending the post. Without Okafor, Washington will be left with only Nene as a legitimate presence in the paint defensively. But Nene projects to be decent as the guy manning the paint and Washington’s defense will rely just as much on their perimeter defenders ability to impose their size and speed on opponents. There is at least a chance that damage of Okafor’s absence can be minimalized.
The lack of Okafor’s presence will also be felt on the glass, though. Okafor was one of the NBA’s better rebounders last year, grabbing 26.8 percent of defensive rebounds (14th among players who played at least 25 games) and 10.7 percent of offensive rebounds (57th). Washington as a team grabbed 75.1 percent of available defensive rebounds with Okafor on the court (which would be good for 3rd in the NBA) and only 74 percent of available defensive boards when Okafor was out. On the offensive end, the Wizards grabbed 25.5 percent of offensive rebounds with Okafor on and 23.5 with Emeka off the court, though it is worth mentioning both those numbers are below league average. Again Okafor makes an obvious difference but does not necessarily make a significant one. The Wizards were an above average defensive rebounding team with and without Okafor and an below average offensive rebounding team with and without him as well. If Nene is able to stay healthy throughout the season his addition could make up for Okafor’s absence.
Offensively Okafor seems to have less of an effect. With Okafor on the floor the Wizards were .7 rating points better on the offensive end. However, both with Okafor on the court and off of it the Wizards had the NBA’s worst offensive rating. So, any improvement from having Okafor on the court was marginal at best and his absence may not have a big effect on Washington’s offense. There is a chance they will miss him though. In watching the Wizards offense it is easy to notice their spacing is significantly better with Okafor and Nene on the floor compared to the other Wizards options — namely Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Booker. Okafor and Nene generally have a better feel of floor spacing and that duo was at least a decent threat to knock down shots from the mid-range. If Seraphin and Booker (or God forbid Jan Vesely) see time in Okafor’s place, there is a real chance the Wizards will have even worse spacing issues this year.
When talking about Washington’s big man rotation I touched on the options the Wizards will have to replace Okafor’s minutes. Mainly they will have to rely on Al Harrington and Trevor Ariza playing a small ball role at the power forward position, a three man big rotation of Nene, Booker, and Seraphin, or a combination of the two. This is not a death sentence for the Wizards — if Seraphin can right his development there is a chance he becomes a competent NBA big man and small ball lineups with Ariza at the four were wildly successful for Washington last year — but there is a good chance Okafor will be missed.
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