Sacramento Kings: DeMarcus Cousins Preseason Warmup, Part 1

(Photo Credit: Matthew Addie, Wiki Commons)

The DeMarcus Cousins max contract conversation started three months ago. Cousins is entering the his fourth year in the NBA and was eligible to sign a max-contract extension this summer, just like the one his former Kentucky teammate John Wall signed over the break. The Sacramento Kings can still offer Cousins a new contract until late in the fall and if they do not — which seems likely at this point — can pick up negotiations this summer. Cousins will also be free to negotiate with other teams on July 1 next year as a restricted free agent (assuming the Kings give Cousins the qualifying offer, which should be a given at that point) and if Cousins signs an offer sheet with another club, the Kings will have the chance to match that offer and keep DeMarcus in Sacramento.

That is all a reasonable chunk of time away and it is not clear which way Sacramento is leaning at this point. Part of that is due to the Kings’ new ownership playing everything close to the vest as far as revealing their long-term game plan with the roster. However, the looming fact residing over the Boogie situation remains that no one is quite sure what to make of Cousins’ ceiling at this point. There are plenty of teams ready to step up and take a swing on his humongous potential, but just as many teams will almost definitely take a pass pointing to his “locker room issues” and the fact that his on-court resume does not match his potential. Sacramento is in the driver’s seat and does not have to commit to either perspective quite yet. But every eye in the front office will be focused on Cousins this year in hopes they can figure out exactly what side they land on.

It is unclear exactly what they will be looking for, though. By the simplest statistical breakdown Cousins was good last season and marginal improvement would be enough to convince some people that he is on his way to a great NBA career. But any basketball guy worth his soul will tell you what they see on the court does not quite back up the numbers and the advanced stats community would be right there with him.

His abilities as a scorer may be the biggest misnomer. Cousins scored 17.1 points per game last season on just less than 14 shots, while shooting a decent 46.5 percent from the field. On those numbers alone Cousins comes off as a decent scorer, but a further analysis shows the flaws in his offensive game. First the good (well, the good-ish): Cousins shot 61.7 percent in the restricted area last season and while that number is not outstanding, it is the least you would expect from a player of Cousins’ skill. And to be honest this is probably where Cousins will remain for the majority of his career as far as efficiency at the rim. For all of Cousins’ great skill, he lacks the athleticism of the typical young big man. He typically plays below the rim and that inability to play above it will usually hamper a player’s ability in the paint. But that 61.7 percent number is still good enough for a top level big and if Cousins could be a good scorer from other areas, he could overcome being only above average at the rim.

The problem is Cousins was not only “not good” from those other areas, he was downright horrible. Cousins shot 37.7 percent on paint shots that were not in the restricted area. The in-the-paint, non-restricted area shots are typically one of three types of shots: shots from the post, creative floaters and flicks from big men who cannot get all the way to rim after pick-and-rolls or drives from the elbow, and tricky floaters from guards and wings attacking from the perimeter. As a big man you want to be proficient at one of those first two types of shots and the great offensive threats are usually skilled at both. Cousins ranked 114th among players who took at least 40 of these shots. Most of the more efficient big men in basketball shot above 45 percent from this area — Al Jefferson, maybe the most consistent post threat in basketball, shot 48 percent — while Cousins, as mentioned earlier, only shot 37.7 percent.

And his struggles from this area are extremely frustrating. Cousins frequently flashes the skills to be significantly more efficient from this area, but most commonly looks like he is either too impatient or too lazy to create a good shot for himself on the block. Cousins will typically settle for a tough shot in the lane and it often looks like it is because he did not want to work harder for a better look. Other times it just seems like Cousins is in a rush for no reason and he will blindly throw up the first shot available instead of being patient and finding a better shot. He has the tools to be a better player from the block, but currently he rarely puts the tools to use.

But the most damning aspect of Cousins’ offensive game is his mid-range shooting. Cousins shot an abysmal 32.4 percent from the mid-range last year, but that is not the condemnable aspect of his mid-range game. There are a lot of big men — especially young big men — who struggle to find their stroke outside the paint. Cousins’ struggles from that area are the not the issue; the issue is that Cousins took 330 shots from the mid-range area last season. That is almost 4.5 jumpers a game and ranked 43rd in the NBA last year. Read that again. Cousins shot 32.4 percent from the mid-range — the 62nd-worst figure among players that took at least 40 mid-range shots — but somehow managed to take the 43rd-most shots of any player in the NBA from that area. In Cousins’ defense, he was a good 43.38 percent from the left elbow and a decent 37.5 percent from the left baseline, but the idea of Cousins taking any jump shot from any spot but those two is down right insane at this point.

Part of the reason Cousins put up so much shots from that area last season was the decision by Keith Smart to move Cousins to the elbow for a solid portion of last season — a good chunk of Cousins’ mid-range shots came from the elbow and the top of the key areas. Smart justifiably felt Cousins’ game on the block was not adequate and decided the elbow area gave Cousins a better avenue to drive and pass — it is also worth mentioning Smart thought it would cater to Cousins’ ability to shoot as well. There were pros and cons from Cousins playing in this area. The glaring cons obviously came from Cousins’ scoring woes, as Cousins was obviously bad from mid-range, but also bad driving to the lane as evidenced by his poor in-the-paint, non-restricted area percentages mentioned earlier.

However, Cousins did improve as a passer last year, though even that has to be taken within context. Cousins averaged 2.7 assists last season and sported a 15.4 assist percentage, which is a good figure for a big man. Cousins has shown skill as a passer and I have mentioned repeatedly that using Cousins as a passer at the elbow could be a decent way for Sacramento to generate floor spacing. However, Cousins’ improved passing has come at a price. While Cousins’ pure assist rates are good, Cousins posted an assist-to-turnover ratio less than one (.88) last season. However, even though Cousins turned it over more than he assisted it, his jump in turnovers last season was not that substantial — he averaged three turnovers last season and 2.7 and 2.5 the years before. Essentially, while Cousins’ turnover numbers are bad, they are not a new problem that came as an expense of his newfound passing abilities. Also, Cousins turnover numbers may have been more of a systematic issue than his own problem. Cousins was not playing in the most efficient offense last season and asking a player to be a better distributor without giving him avenues to do so can often lead to turnovers. Take Kevin Durant for example. Recently, he has been asked to be more of a distributor in addition to being a scorer. As Durant has become a more prolific distributor, it has come with higher turnover rates. Durant’s turnover jump is not necessarily his own fault as much as it is an indictment on Scott Brooks‘ non-offense that does not put Durant in spots to be a more efficient distributor. With a new coach at the helm there is a chance Cousins becomes a more efficient passer in a more structured offense.

The other place where Cousins being at the elbow clearly hurt his game was as a rebounder, though. Last season Cousins only posted a 10.5 offensive rebounding percentage; very average, especially considering Cousins’ aptitude as a defensive rebounder. The season prior, when Cousins was still playing a lot at the block, he grabbed 14.1 percent of available offensive rebounds; that was good for eighth that season and would have ranked eighth again this year. I have mentioned previously that Sacramento is really lacking rebounders past DeMarcus Cousins and if they do not get any offensive rebounding from him they will be a below average team on the offensive glass. His abilities as a passer and what that could mean for Sacramento’s offense make a good argument for Cousins playing at the elbow this year. But he is inept from mid-range, projects to be better around the rim in the paint he can put it all together and Sacramento really needs his work on the offensive glass to return to form. It will be tough for Mike Malone and his staff to make a decision on where Cousins should be spending more of his time on offense.

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