Washington Wizards: 2013-14 NBA Preview
2012-13 Vitals
29-53, 3rd in Southeast Division, 10th in Eastern Conference
93.2 PPG/95.8 OPP PPG
100.2 Offensive Rating (30th), 92.2 Defensive Rating (5th) per Basketball-Reference
2013-14 Roster
Trevor Ariza – SF
Bradley Beal – SG
Trevor Booker – PF
Al Harrington – SF/PF
Nene – PF/C
Emeka Okafor – PF/C
Otto Porter – SF
Glen Rice Jr. – SG
Kevin Seraphin – PF/C
Chris Singleton – PF
Garrett Temple – SG
Jan Vesely – PF
John Wall – PG
Martell Webster – SF
Off-Season Additions
Al Harrington (FA), Otto Porter (draft), Glen Rice Jr. (draft)
Off-Season Subtractions
Jason Collins, Cartier Martin, A.J. Price
Projected Starters
PG – John Wall
SG – Bradley Beal
SF – Martell Webster
PF – Nene
C – Emeka Okafor
Season Outlook
In all, despite the fact that the Washington Wizards did not make any major moves this offseason, they project to make a big leap this season, with most picking them to lock up a playoff spot. This projected improvement is based on the expected, continued development of John Wall and Bradley Beal and the faint idea that their core players will remain healthy most of the season — of the eight projected rotations players returning (above starters, Ariza, Booker and Seraphin) only three played more than 65 games.
If the group is able to avoid major injuries, though, they should meet their raised expectations. Washington was one of the top defenses in basketball last year and project to only improve this season. As the season went on the Wizards’ younger players began to fully grasp the defensive concept Randy Wittman and the coaching staff was trying to establish and that, along with the continued defensive prowess of the veterans, helped Washington become a top 10 defense — and one that was only behind Indiana and Memphis, statistically, for long stretches of the regular season. With continued growth from their younger players and their most athletic and skilled defenders (John Wall, Trevor Ariza, etc.) hopefully staying healthy, their defense should only improve. And even if it stays pat, they will still be excellent on the defensive end of the court.
The offensive end of the court will be the telling end for Washington this year. Last year they were horrible at that end — NBA.com rates their offense (by points per 100 possessions) at 97.8 while Basketball-Reference has them at 100.2 (both last in ranking). They project to be at least tolerable on offense this year though. With John Wall in the lineup, the Wizards typically were better on offense and got even better when Wall and Beal both played (the Wizards were well above .500 when Beal and Wall both suited up). Also, for stretches of the season when Wall was healthy the Wizards offense was good enough to give the Wizards a positive net rating and for those stretches the Wizards actually resembled the Indiana Pacers and the Memphis Grizzlies as far as offensive and defensive rating goes. With Wall and Beal seeing more court time together, and the Wizards core in general staying healthy they project to be good enough offensively to be a successful team with their stalwart defense.
Best-Case Scenario
The Wizards stay healthy and easily make the playoffs, potentially cracking into the best of the rest group with Indiana, Brooklyn and Chicago. John Wall makes the leap — I have discussed ad nauseam why he projects to do so — and clearly establishes himself as one of the best five point guards in basketball. Behind Wall the Wizards craft a top five defensive power and pull themselves up to the middle of the pack offensively and resemble a 2012-13 Memphis Grizzlies and Indiana Pacers. They probably fall at the hands of their average offense come playoff time, but overall it is a successful season that provides a foundation for Washington to build on going forward.
Worst-Case Scenario
The injury plagues remain and the Wizards struggle to sport a healthy outfit during the season. Wall does not improve as he is projecting to and their other young players — Beal, Porter and Rice Jr. — do not continue to develop under Wittman. The team misses out on the playoffs again and the front office has to begin moving in a new direction with the team, though one that still starts with the Wall-Beal backcourt combo.
Final Prediction
45-37, 2nd in the Southeast, 5th in the Eastern Conference
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