(from left) Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James and Chris Bosh at the 2008 Olympics. (photo credit: Richard Giles, Wiki Commons)
Step In The Lane is a recurring article format used to focus on three (typically) different, relevant NBA topics. Today, we look towards the 2014 free agency.
First Step – What Will Happen To The Gang Next Year?
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all have early termination options that allow them to opt out of their deals at the end of the upcoming season. Bosh and James are at the peak of their powers and will almost certainly test the free agent market and lock down as much guaranteed money as possible while they are still worth it. Wade is more obviously on the decline and while he may still be capable of pulling max dollars on the market, it will not be surprising if waives his option and stays on his current deal.
It will be interesting to see how everything goes down, also. The Miami Heat had to jump through hoops to get an adequate supporting cast around their big three before the lockout and with the new CBA restrictions and James, Wade and Bosh all due to make at least $20 million next year it will be difficult for Pat Riley to continue providing the big three with decent supporting pieces. Also, the more than $61 million they are slated to make next year will be pretty close to the luxury tax — which projects to be around $72 million. Miami does not have a single contract guaranteed to be on the books this summer, but trying to build a support group around Bosh, Wade and LeBron with only $10 million will be difficult and if Miami goes over that luxury tax level again this season they will take on the deathly repeater tax status. In all, Miami simply may not be able to keep the big three together and keep up a championship level contender.
And we are not necessarily sure the big three want to stay together either. James has not said anything about his plans for this summer and while that means he has not committed to leaving Miami, it also means he has not committed to staying. He has every right to take this stance also. As mentioned earlier the future of the Miami franchise is somewhat in flux and quitting while they are ahead may be the best way to preserve the legacy of the team, the big three and LeBron himself. He has a couple of truly enticing options in front of him also. The Cleveland Cavaliers should have at least $20 million in cap space next summer and could easily turn that into $30 million by letting some players with upside go early. Also, Cleveland looks more like a contending supporting cast than they have in a long time and the group that would surround LeBron in Cleveland looks much more capable than the group he left three years ago. LeBron still spends his offseasons in Akron and is still very connected to the city and the state of Ohio. Also, his dislike of Mike Brown was completely overblown. A return to Cleveland is a definite possibility. The Los Angeles Lakers serve as the other realistic opportunity, but we will get to that a little later.
Bosh also has to be, at least, considering calling it quits after this season in Miami. In small, telling flashes Bosh has revealed he is still capable of being the main piece in an efficient NBA offense. You would figure a part of him wants to spend some time as the go to guy while his talents still allow it. That could very well happen in Miami — in the event of a LeBron departure and a continued Wade decline — but teams (specifically Dallas) will be chomping at the bit to add a player like Bosh to their team.
In The Lane – New York, New York
Carmelo Anthony can also opt out this summer, though he recently committed to staying put in New York. If the Dwight Howard saga taught us anything it is that we can trust an NBA superstar at his word and first commitments (/sarcasm; for my Internet tone deaf readers), but even if Anthony is truly committed to staying in New York he will probably still be looking to ink a new deal this year. Carmelo is about six months older than LeBron and is not aging as gracefully James (but to be fair, no one is). He projects to start declining in skill sooner rather than later and has even admitted that his window may be closing soon. While he is still at his relative peak as a scorer it is smart for him to lock up one more max level contract. That very well could happen sometime this winter and there is good chance Carmelo locks up himself with the Knicks early and becomes the Chris Paul of this upcoming free agent class — except he won’t get Mike Woodson fired and hand pick his next coach while holding his impending free agency over everyone’s head. But if Carmelo does make it to July without signing a new contract you would figure he will at least test the market. L.A. and Dallas again will probably emerge as the top suitors, but more likely than not Carmelo will be a Knickerbocker when it is all said and done next summer.
The question then becomes exactly what type of group the Knicks will build around Carmelo going forward. Over the last two season the Knicks have made good “small” moves to improve their team, but for most part have been ignoring the fact that, as currently constructed, this team cannot compete for a championship. The paralysis has not necessarily been a product of incompetence, but rather inability at the hands of their payroll. Specifically, they are stuck paying more than $45 million to Amar’e Stoudemire and Amar’e Stoudemire’s uninsurable knees. They owe $68 million per year to four players over the next two seasons — Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler, Andrea “not as bad a pickup as you think” Bargnani and Melo, if he remains with the Knicks — and it is going to be hard to make any real substantial moves until those two years are over. Carmelo will be close to 31 by then and it is hard to see just what type of contender the Knicks would build around a Carmelo Anthony who is on the wrong side of 30. Especially since Carmelo has not necessarily established he is the center piece you can build a champion around. For all of his scoring prowess, his efficiency comes and goes for stretches of games, stretches of the season and stretches of his career. He is a capable passer, but has never really been a great distributor; or even a good one, for that matter. His lack of defensive competence is not the biggest pitfall of a high volume scoring small forward, but the plus he provides on offense does not necessarily overcome his defensive shortcomings. That window may already be closed.
The Finish – The 30 Million Dollar Man
Dirk Nowitzki plans on taking a massive pay cut next season, realizing the $24.5 million he could earn next season would hamper the Mavericks’ ability to build a contender next offseason. Instead, Dallas will be using the space created by Dirk’s salary decrease to attempt to bring in not one but two top level free agents next season. For Dirk it is a decision that reveals humility, a want to make another run at a ring and thankfulness towards the franchise that is letting you finish your career where it started (hey, Boston). Kobe Bryant is not making the same decision.
Bryant is the only player capable of making more money than Dirk next season and he is planning on getting every penny of it. In all, Kobe can make a little more than $32.5 million next season and that contract will most likely leave the Lakers with less than $16 million in cap room, despite only having four players on the books. That much cap space most likely is not enough to attract one superstar playing at a reasonable discount, much less two top notch free agents or a max level player not willing to take less. Also, the Lakers will essentially be handcuffed from making any moves before Kobe signs his next contract. Bryant’s cap hold is more than $45 million and will leave the Lakers to what amounts to a mini mid-level exception as far as cap space goes. No chip can fall until the Kobe Bryant one does and that chip is so huge it may take every other play off the board.
Look Kobe is an all-timer, in his mind he is worth every bit of that $32 million and the front office, along with a lot of Laker Nation, agrees. But if Kobe makes that much money over his last few seasons it is going to be nearly impossible for him to compete for that sixth ring. His supporting cast will be made up of an aging Nash and the remnants of the Lakers current parts — or what they can be traded for (not much). For a player that was already in decline — albeit a slow decline — that is coming off an Achilles injury that ruins careers (see: Mehmet Okur, Elton Brand and Chauncey Billups) that type of support will not be enough to win a title.
But if Kobe ever reaches the sewers of the NBA blogosphere in search for motivation and reads this, he will have what he is looking for. He will set out to prove me and every person who doubts him wrong; ignoring every standard, rule, and obstacle — physical, literal, mental, and imagined — that is supposed to slow him down. And I would only be slightly surprised if he somehow did it. That is why I hate but begrudgingly respect him, and that is why I am actually growing to love him.
(I think I’m going to be sick.)
The Finish
In this edition of “What the NBA is doing to keep hoop fiends alive while simultaneously trying to kill them with WNBA basketball” a year in review episode of Shaqtin’ A Fool. One of the big man’s only positive contributions to the Turner NBA experience inspires my pick of the strangest and funniest NBA moments from last season you may have missed:
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