Denver Nuggets: Time To Free JaVale McGee

JaVale McGee is one of the NBA’s most entertaining players. Whether it’s his freakish size and oddly proportioned body, his incredible shot-blocking ability, his high-flying dunks or some of the hilariously boneheaded things he does on the court, anytime McGee takes the court you know you’re going to see something interesting. Despite McGee’s breakout playoff performance against the Los Angeles Lakers in 2011-12, George Karl limited him to just 18 minutes per game last season behind Kosta Koufos. Karl’s gone now. Koufos is gone, too. With new coach Brian Shaw at the helm, it’s time to free McGee.

Yeah, so the Nuggets signed free agent J.J. Hickson and re-signed Timofey Mozgov. Nobody’s taking that starting spot from McGee now that Karl’s gone. In fact, there was tension all season long between Karl and Nuggets management over how much playing time he was getting. But with a new coach in place that won’t risk doing anything too extreme in his first season, McGee should see plenty of minutes as the starter.

McGee has never played more than 28 minutes per game in his five NBA seasons. He made strides against the Lakers in the playoffs, but with every giant stride he took he looked visibly winded if Karl kept him on the floor for long periods of time. For the 2013-14 season, McGee’s going to get more minutes than ever before. But what can we expend from the ever-entertaining JaVale McGee in extended minutes?

For one thing, we can expect more entertainment on par with anything Russell Crowe gave us in “Gladiator“. But more importantly, we’ll finally get answers to the biggest question NBA experts have always had about JaVale McGee: How well would his per-36 numbers translate if he actually played that many minutes? Last season, McGee posted an impressive 9.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game in 18 minutes. That makes it pretty easy to figure out his per-36 numbers of 18.2 points, 9.6 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game.

Even if you were to double his minutes, expecting four blocks per game is a little unrealistic right? Maybe. Four blocks per game would be historic, but McGee did finish sixth in the league in blocks despite playing significantly less minutes than the five players above him. Just look at the six leaders in blocks per game and how many minutes they played compared to McGee:

1. Serge Ibaka – 242 blocks, 2,488 minutes
2. Roy Hibbert – 206 blocks, 2,267 minutes
3. Larry Sanders – 201 blocks, 1,938 minutes
4. Dwight Howard – 186 blocks, 2,721 minutes
5. Tim Duncan – 183 blocks, 2,077 minutes
6. JaVale McGee – 157 blocks, 1,440 minutes

It doesn’t take a mathematician to notice that McGee would be competing near the top of the list if he had played 2,000-plus minutes. If you added 600 minutes of playing time, McGee’s pace of one block per nine minutes means he would’ve recorded another 66 blocks. That puts him behind only Ibaka, who still would’ve played about 450 more minutes than McGee. And then you notice McGee’s advanced stats. His player efficiency rating last season was a 20.7, well above the league average of 15. His true shooting percentage was a solid 58.9 percent. His field goal percentage (57.5) was third-best in the NBA. If he were given the chance to play more, and therefore, score and rebound more, those are All-Star numbers, right?

Take those projections with a grain of salt, though. Just because McGee’s numbers look great in theory doesn’t mean anybody would actually expect that kind of regular production out of him. But considering how efficient McGee was in limited minutes last season, we can expect his numbers to be somewhere in the middle. Of course, JaVale has to actually be able to stay on the court that long to produce either way.

The biggest obstacle to JaVale McGee playing more than 30 minutes a night is McGee’s own conditioning. McGee’s lack of post moves presents an inherent problem to his scoring, of course. But how many times have you been watching a Denver Nuggets game and seen him doubled over, hands on his knees, looking for a second wind during breaks in the action? McGee’s height and length often overcomes his non-existent post game, resembling a clumsier, funnier version of Lob City at times. But J.J. Hickson’s appalling defense won’t be replacing McGee in the starting five anytime soon, even if he continues to average a double-double in Denver. If JaVale McGee can get in better shape, and STAY AWAY from being JaVale McGoaltend, the sky’s the limit this season.