Atlanta Hawks: Should They Be On Tank Watch?
Tank Watch. The mood is tense. I’ve been on some serious, serious reports before, but nothing quite like this.
But in all seriousness, “Anchorman “references aside, one of the big headlines down the stretch of the 2013-14 NBA season will undoubtedly be Tank Watch. When teams on the fringe of making the playoffs see their postseason odds spiraling down the drain, how many of them will drop games to improve their pick in the loaded upcoming draft? How many star players will be sitting out with a “back injury” or an “ailing foot”? How many teams are secretly already in tank mode to start the season? And where the hell do the Atlanta Hawks fit in with all of this?
The Hawks are difficult to peg for the 2013-14 season. General manager Danny Ferry has made some smart decisions these past two offseasons to help the franchise start over. First, he allowed the wildly overpaid Joe Johnson to go be uninspiring somewhere else. Then he let the enigmatic Josh Smith go try to breathe some life back into the Detroit Pistons. After shedding the massive contracts of the Hawks’ two best players over the last few years, you’d think they’d be in full tank mode, right?
Wrong. Just when it seemed like Ferry was planning on completely scrapping the roster and starting from the bottom, now they’re here. “Here” is where Atlanta somehow signs Paul Millsap for an unbelievable bargain price of $19 million over two years. “Here” is where the Hawks matched the Milwaukee Bucks’ $32 million, four-year offer sheet for Jeff Teague and didn’t have to downgrade to Brandon Knight. “Here” is where Elton Brand gets signed to a one-year contract, sharpshooter Kyle Korver gets re-signed and Louis Williams and Al Horford will be back next season.
A starting five of Teague, Williams, Korver, Millsap and Horford looks pretty damn good on paper. Horford posted 17.4 points and 10.2 rebounds per game last season. Teague had career bests of 14.6 points and 7.2 assists per game, Williams posted 14.1 points in 39 games and even Korver scored in double digits. Signing DeMarre Carroll and drafting Lucas Nogueira and Dennis Schroeder helps the bench out a little bit, but it still might be as weak as the Portland Trail Blazers’ reserves last year. That leaves a solid starting unit and a questionable bench. See the glaring discrepancy? Quite possibly only the Los Angeles Lakers have a wider berth between their projected best finish and projected worst finish (though I’m leaning towards “worst” when it comes to LAL).
Here’s my list of teams that are definitely, 100 percent tanking:
Philadelphia 76ers
Phoenix Suns
Orlando Magic
Sacramento Kings
No surprises there since none of these teams will even sniff the playoffs. How about the teams that might try to make the playoffs but will probably fall short? These teams may start the season hoping for a playoff spot, but nobody will be surprised to see these teams tank when things don’t work out:
Toronto Raptors
Milwaukee Bucks
New Orleans Pelicans
Charlotte Bobcats
Utah Jazz
I don’t think I’ll be getting too many arguments from fans of those teams. Even diehards have to admit those teams don’t have a terrific shot of grabbing a playoff spot. Now we get to the fringe playoff contenders that have a substantial chance, but should definitely tank down the stretch if they fall short:
Los Angeles Lakers
Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks
Portland Trail Blazers
Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets
Detroit Pistons
Cleveland Cavaliers
Washington Wizards
Atlanta Hawks
Lakers, Celtics and Nuggets fans may hate seeing their team up there, but I cannot stress this enough: if a team is unlikely to make the playoffs down the stretch of the regular season, they should tank it out. The 2014 NBA Draft class is that good. It’s not just about Andrew Wiggins. This draft class is talented and deep like we haven’t seen since 2003.
As for Atlanta, we’re left with a bit of a jigsaw puzzle. The Hawks are projected by many to make the playoffs next season and lock up a spot just outside of the East’s big five — the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks. A healthy John Wall should help the Washington Wizards make the postseason. A young, on-the-rise Cleveland Cavaliers roster could conceivably make the playoffs. The revamped Pistons should certainly be in contention. And even the down-and-out Boston Celtics could be in the conversation if Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green have career years.
As you can see, outside of those top five teams that are pretty much locks to make the postseason, the East’s last three playoff spots could be filled by anybody. The last three seeds will more than likely just be first-round fodder for the actual contenders, but because the East is weak as a whole, there’ll certainly be an unworthy playoff team or two (a la the Bucks last season). The Atlanta Hawks don’t quite fit that category, but this team could very well end up on Tank Watch 2014.
The starting lineup sounds great in theory, but keep in mind there are some new faces that will need time to mesh. Even Lou Williams will be a new face of sorts since he missed most of the season with an injury last year. Add in the fact that Williams is a loose cannon on offense, that Al Horford has problems staying healthy or that the Hawks’ bench is entirely unproven and it becomes conceivable that Atlanta could miss the postseason. And as I’ve said many times before, if you’re a team that knows it’s not going to make the playoffs down the stretch of the regular season, the 2014 draft class is entirely worth tanking for. If the Hawks fit that description, or if they have injury problems, don’t be surprised to see Atlanta win 35 games.
[slider_pro id=”1″]