Indiana Pacers: Have They Done Enough To Beat The Miami Heat?

Two seasons ago, with Danny Granger leading the team in scoring with 18.7 points per game, the Indiana Pacers took the Miami Heat to six games in the Eastern Conference semifinals. In the 2011-12 season, Indiana had the league’s 10th best defense and 13th best offense and their offense was led by all five regular-season starters who averaged in double digits (Granger, David West, Roy Hibbert, Paul George and Darren Collison).
Near the end of the season, Collison was injured and George Hill took over the starting point guard job. When the Pacers entered the postseason, they chose to stick with Hill and Hill was third on the team in scoring with 13.5 points per game in 11 playoff games.

Going into the 2012-13 season, the Pacers had gotten rid of Collison and handed Hill the starting point guard job. They signed D.J Augustin to serve as their backup floor general, but went into the season with the previous year’s leading scorer, Danny Granger, out of the equation. Granger had surgery on his left knee to for patellar tendinosis and went into the year with Lance Stephenson playing the 2 and Paul George at the 3.

Indiana struggled early on the season, going just 10-10 in their first 20 games. However, Frank Vogel’s group righted the ship and finished the season 49-32. Despite dropping to 23rd in the league in scoring, the Pacers finished with the second best defense in basketball, trailing only the Memphis Grizzlies with 90.7 points allowed per game. George had a breakout third season, averaging 17.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, while emerging as one of the premier wing defenders in the game. West also stepped up his game, averaging 17.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game (averaged just 12.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game the year before).

In the playoffs, the Pacers first beat the Atlanta Hawks in six games. In the following round, Indiana, the No. 3 seed in the East, faced the New York Knicks, who were the  No. 2 seed. Once again, the Pacers were able to prevail in six games, this time behind George’s suffocating defense on Knicks star Carmelo Anthony. In the conference finals, the Pacers and Miami Heat alternated wins for seven games, with the LeBron James-led Heat coming out of the East for the third straight year.

This summer, Indiana didn’t try to land any superstars, but they did a great job of strengthening their nine-man rotation. The Pacers brought in C.J. Watson to be the backup to Hill, while letting last year’s backup, Augustin, walk in free agency. Indiana also traded backup wing Gerald Green, seldom-used Miles Plumlee and a future first-round pick for Luis Scola. Scola will now serve as the team’s third big, as the Pacers also let Tyler Hansbrough sign elsewhere in free agency. Also, to replace Green, they signed Chris Copeland, who played last year with the Knicks and averaged 8.7 points per game as a 28 year-old rookie.

If Granger is healthy going into the season, Indiana will have a nine-man rotation that looks like this:

Starters:
PG: George Hill
SG: Paul George
SF: Danny Granger
PF: David West
C: Roy Hibbert

Rotational Bench Players:
C.J Watson (backup point guard)
Lance Stephenson (third wing)
Chris Copeland (fourth wing)
Luis Scola (third big man)

(Although it’s possible that they start Stephenson at the 2, George at the 3 and bring Granger off the bench)

If Danny Granger is fully healthy and Paul George continues to improve, this might be a team that can take down the mighty Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals next season.  The three-man rotation inside of West, Hibbert and Scola will be the best inside interior rotation in the East and possibly the best in the league. Even though Scola’s numbers dropped last season, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he isn’t as good of a player as he was the year before, when he averaged 15.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game for a gutsy Houston Rockets’ team that almost squeezed its way into the playoffs.

There’s no doubt that the Pacers will enter next season with the realistic goal of beating the Heat, and they’ll definitely have a shot at doing so. Hibbert and George looked great in the playoffs last season, and they’re just coming into their own at 27 and 23 respectively. With an improved nine-man rotation, whether the Pacers can get past Miami will be about the improvement of both Hibbert and George. I have no doubt that the rest of the team can keep them close enough to have a shot, but Indiana’s fate will certainly be in the hands of Hibbert and George; Only time will tell if they can take Indiana to the promised land.

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