Houston Rockets: 2013-14 NBA Preview
The Houston Rockets have high hopes in 2013-14. (Image from wallpapervortex.com)
2012-13 Vitals
45-37, 3rd in the Southwest Division, 8th in the Western Conference
Lost to Oklahoma City in First Round, 4-2
106.0 PPG/102.5 OPP PPG
2013-14 Roster
Omer Asik– C
Patrick Beverley – PG
Aaron Brooks – PG
Marcus Camby – C
Isaiah Canaan – PG
Omri Casspi – SF
Robert Covington – SF
Francisco Garcia – SG
James Harden – SG
Jordan Henriquez – C
Dwight Howard – C
Terrence Jones – PF
Jeremy Lin – PG
Donatas Motiejunas – PF
Chandler Parsons – SF
Greg Smith – PF
Reggie Williams – SG
B.J. Young – SG
Offseason Additions
Dwight Howard (FA), Isaiah Canaan (Draft), Robert Covington, B.J. Young, Marcus Camby (FA), Jordan Henriquez, Reggie Williams (FA), Omri Casspi (FA)
Offseason Subtractions
James Anderson, Carlos Delfino, Tim Ohlbrecht, Thomas Robinson, Royce White
Projected Starters
PG – Jeremy Lin
SG – James Harden
SF – Chandler Parsons
PF – Omer Asik
C – Dwight Howard
2013-14 Season Outlook
By signing Dwight Howard away from the Los Angeles Lakers to a four-year, $88 million contract, the Houston Rockets were the undisputed winners of the 2013 NBA offseason. In addition to the Howard signing, the Rockets also made some smaller, but extremely smart, moves to surround Dwight with shooters. The Rockets signed veteran swingmen Omri Casspi and Reggie Williams, along with re-signing veteran guard Francisco Garcia. These moves have ensured that the Rockets will go at least two deep at every position and that the offense will have plenty of firepower.
The Dwight Howard signing vaults the Houston Rockets into the top-four hierarchy of the Western Conference; however, it does not necessarily make them better than the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder or Los Angeles Clippers. Last season the Rockets were a potent offensive team with a mediocre defense. Depending on how coach Kevin McHale employs the Howard/Asik combo, the offensive and defensive fortunes of the Rockets could drastically change. Pairing the duo would transform the Rockets into a defensive juggernaut overnight. Both Howard and Asik are strong enough to shut down the lane single-handedly and mobile enough to corral guards on the pick-and-roll. However, on offense the pairing could be nightmarish, suffocating Houston’s top-six offense, ergo negating much of the good Howard and Asik bring on defense. The key with the Howard and Asik combo will be staggering the two so that one big is always on the floor and playing the pair together limited to spot minutes. This would greatly increase Houston’s defensive efficiency (16th in the league last year) while not bogging down the offense. Looking at the roster, outside of Howard and Asik, players that will get meaningful minutes are all offensive-minded players. If McHale can establish a successful rotation between Howard and Asik (one that keeps both players happy) then the Rockets could establish themselves as a potent two-way team; something only the Thunder and Spurs can boast being in the Western Conference.
Best-Case Scenario
Best-case scenario for any team is a championship, but fortunately for the Rockets, they are one of the four teams in the Western Conference that are legitimate championship contenders. What makes the Rockets really scary is their potential to become a top-five defensive and offensive team. The Rockets also boast two players that are arguably the best in the league at their position in James Harden and Dwight Howard. As the Los Angeles Lakers, Spurs and Boston Celtics have shown over the last 15 years, the combination of a dynamic wing and elite big man is enough to win not just one, but multiple championships (well, almost for the Celtics). The Rockets have the potential to be the best team in the league; if they are, it is because James Harden and Dwight Howard lead them there.
Worst-Case Scenario
McHale cannot figure out a big man rotation. Asik’s minutes dwindle to 20 minutes a night because he cannot play with Howard on the offensive end. Asik begins to pout and demands a trade. Lin also continues to struggle playing next to Harden. While Harden and Dwight develop a lethal pick-and-roll game, Lin is left as the odd man out. Lin goes cold from the outside, his confidence fades and is replaced in the starting lineup by Patrick Beverley. Lin finally demands a trade. Surrounded by younger players, Dwight Howard feels free to let loose all his childish antics and creates a disjointed locker room, alienating Lin and Asik and the older players. The Rockets never gel on- or off-court and whatever symmetry that is developed between Harden and Howard cannot get them out of the first round as they are crushed in five games by a much more disciplined and fierce Memphis Grizzlies squad.
What Will Actually Happen
The Rockets will finish second in the Southwest Division behind the Spurs and fourth overall in the Western Conference with a record of 54-28. Dwight Howard will make them a top-10 defensive team but not a top-five. The Howard and Asik pairing will not work, but the Rockets will trade Asik for Ryan Anderson before Asik starts to sour about his reduced minutes. Lin will eventually fill the sixth man role, which he will graciously accept before asking for a trade in the offseason. If Lin makes the transition in time to make him eligible, he will be in the running for the Sixth Man of the Year award. The Rockets will have too much fire power for the Memphis Grizzlies, beating them in six games in the first round of the playoffs. However, the Rockets will face Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round and the Thunder will eliminate the Rockets in five games as Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant will prove to be too much for the Rockets to contain.
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