Houston Rockets: Will Ronnie Brewer Be able To Break The Rotation?

This week the Houston Rockets signed veteran swingman Ronnie Brewer to a two-year contract.  Ronnie Brewer is known as a defensive specialist with a limited offensive skill set.  The Houston Rockets currently have Omri Casspi and Francisco Garcia on the roster to back up James Harden and Chandler Parsons.  So with an already loaded backcourt, does Ronnie Brewer have a chance to break into to the Houston Rockets’ rotation next season?

(NBA.com photo)

The Rockets currently have more than 15 players on their roster headed into training camp.  So the Rockets will certainly have to make cuts before the season starts.  Priority No. 1 for the Rockets will be to surround Dwight Howard and James Harden with as many shooters as possible.  So players going into the Rockets training camp that can shoot will have an upper hand.  The proverbial “3-and-D” (3-point shooter and defensive specialist) guys will be of utmost importance to the Rockets as their perimeter starters are not known for their defense and they would be able to bring in a player off the bench that is both a reliable shooter and a rugged defender.  Presumably, the Rockets have brought in Omri Casspi and Francisco Garcia to fill the “3-and-D” role, at least in theory.  Casspi came into the league shooting 3s at a rate above the league average, but unfortunately, he seems to have lost his 3-point stroke two years ago when he was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Over the past two seasons, Casspi has only shot 32 percent from deep.  Further, Casspi’s defense can be rather inconsistent. Francisco Garcia is a wily NBA veteran of eight seasons and a 36 percent career 3-point shooter.  So Garcia definitely has the 3-point part of the “3 & D” down.  While Garcia is not known as a lock-down defender, he is a rather crafty and a good team defender.  So the question is whether there is room for Ronnie Brewer with Casspi and Garcia already providing shooting and defense. Brewer is only a 25 percent career 3-point shooter.  On offense, opposing teams have tended to leave Brewer alone forcing his team to play 4-on-5 on offense.  Brewer, however, is pretty good off the ball and will sneak in for back door cuts when given the opportunity.  Unfortunately, offenses typically cannot take advantage of cuts at the rate they can open shooters.  Brewer has also developed the reputation as a defensive specialist, which may not be true exactly true.  Watching Brewer does give the idea that he is a lockdown defender, but the advance statistics do not really point that way.  The only two seasons that Brewer’s lineups had a net positive defensive rating was during his two years in Chicago.  Brewer was a sub on Chicago’s defensively destructive second unit featuring Omer Asik and Taj Gibson.  So that may have had to more to do with Brewer’s excellent defensive numbers those seasons than Brewer’s actual defense.  However, other than those two seasons with Chicago and Brewer’s rookie season, all of Brewer’s other teams have been outscored while he is on the court.  This does not necessarily mean that Brewer is not a good individual defender however, the numbers just do not show that his teams are better defensively while he is on the court. The bottom line here is that Brewer may be a good individual defender who does not contribute to the overall team defense.  In order for Brewer to find time on the court with the Rockets, he is going to have to compete with two players whose teams are better defensively while they are on the court and who can spread the floor more consistently (well, maybe not Casspi).  The Rockets may have signed Brewer on an outdated reputation.  At least Brewer’s contract is only partially guaranteed.  If Brewer can develop an outside shot, his athleticism and size should help the Rockets against elite small forwards in spot minutes.  But that is a big IF and Brewer has his work cut out for him to find minutes in an already-crowded wing rotation.