Sacramento Kings: 2013-14 NBA Preview

2012-13 Vitals

28-54, 4th in Pacific Division, 13th in the Western Conference
100.2 PPG/105.1 OPP PPG
106.2 Off Rtg (12th), 111.4 Def Rtg (29th) per Basketball-Reference

2013-14 Roster

DeMarcus Cousins – PF/C

Jimmer Fredette – PG

Chuck Hayes – PF

James Johnson – SF

Carl Landry – PF

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (MbAM) – SF

Ray McCallum – PG

Ben McLemore – SG

Travis Outlaw – SF

Patrick Patterson – PF

John Salmons – SF

Isaiah Thomas – PG

Jason Thompson – PF/C

Marcus Thornton – SG

Greivis Vasquez – PG

Off-Season Additions

Carl Landry (FA), MbAM (trade), Ray McCallum (draft), Ben McLemore (draft), Greivis Vasquez (acquired in Tyreke Evans sign-and-trade)

Off-Season Subtractions

Tyreke Evans, Aaron Brooks, Toney Douglas, Cole Aldrich

Projected Starters

PG – Greivis Vasquez

SG – Marcus Thornton

SF – MbAM (could easily be John Salmons)

PF – Jason Thompson

C – DeMarcus Cousins

Season Outlook

The Sacramento Kings have new ownership, a rejuvenated fan base, a new arena on the way and a team that is not that much different than the one that took the floor last season. The new management is not looking to blow it up or quick build a contender (Pelicans-style), and seem content letting the chips fall where they may this year. Vivek Ranadive and Pete D’Alessandro inherited a roster that seemed to prime to join the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes this year if left untouched. Instead, they brought in a couple of minor additions (Landry, MbAM), smartly let Tyreke Evans walk and were compensated with Vasquez for their troubles. Their roster composition is a mess — five guards looking for minutes, five power forwards, no legitimate offensive threat at small forward and no natural center — but we are entering an era of NBA basketball that is becoming more and more positionless. The Kings look to at least be competitive this season, despite all signs reading “tank” in bold letters.

Just how competitive they are will rely mainly on the development of DeMarcus Cousins. We are entering year four and despite only being 23 years of age, Cousins needs to make some kind of leap to ensure the front office that a large portion his bountiful potential can be fulfilled in Sacramento. On the surface statistically, Cousins was no slouch last season — he averaged 17.1 PPG and 9.9 APG — but he needs to show the deeper level of statistical success that shows there is some substance behind his game. Specifically, his shot selection, defensive ability around the paint and in the pick-and-roll and the amount of noticeable improvement Sacramento displays when he is on the floor compared to when he is not must all improve drastically for the team to have success — and more importantly, for the team to feel comfortable investing big money into him some time soon.

Outside of Cousins’ play a few other things will dictate Sacramento’s fate. Their horrid, 29th-ranked defense will be under the guide of top defensive coach Mike Malone this season. Whether Malone is able to mold this team — specifically Cousins and Thompson — into a respectable defense is unpredictable at this point. There is little chance he is able to turn them into a power, but should be aiming on dragging them from the dregs of the league defensively. Greivis Vasquez will be looking to do the same with Sacramento’s ball distribution. As it stands now, Vasquez is the only guard that roster that does not look to shoot first and think about passing five options later. His top five distribution rates will help the touches flow more smoothly, but the ultimate hope is that his pass first mentality will catch on with some players.

The last issue that will some effect on Sacramento this season: Their ability to survive the space crunching caused by their small forwards. Salmons and MbAM project to grab most of the playing time at the 3 — unless Malone elects to go small out of offensive necessity — and will need to find ways to keep the floor spaced, despite Salmons below-average 3-point shooting and MbAM’s full ineptitude behind the arc. There are few creative things Malone will have at his disposal to solve the floor spacing problem. Cousins can function mostly around the elbow in a Marc Gasol style set up and I have mentioned previously how the team’s use of Patterson in certain ways can dull the negative effects of MbAM. There are plenty of ways for the Kings’ coaching staff to deal with the spacing, and all of these little issues for that matter. We will see how they handle it.

Best-Case Scenario

Everything clicks. Cousins plays like an All-Star on both ends of the court, Vasquez is able to transform the Kings into a pass first team and Mike Malone is able to take the Kings from deplorable to a fringe top-15 defense. The Kings find themselves on the brink of a playoff berth — giving fans a reason to care for the first time in a long time — but most likely fall short as a victim to an ultra-competitive, ultra-deep Western Conference.

Worst-Case Scenario

The Kings do what most are projecting them to do. They remain a team you cannot take the night off against all season; they crack into the top-10 offensively, but remain too poor on defense to turn that into consistent success. The fans show more support because the team at least seems to give a crap this year and things seem to be going in the right direction. And the team finishes somewhere between 30 and 35 wins (probably closer to 35).

And here is the thing. There are scenarios where the Kings finish with more losses; there is a solid chance this is a bottom feeder in the stacked Western Conference. But while a 35-win team looks better on paper than one who barely manages to earn 20 wins, the 35-win team is stuck in no man’s land in a year where that is a really tough place to be. A 35-win team misses out on the playoffs by a long shot out West and is also far removed for the top of a lottery filled with bonafide tankers. This Kings team is decent, but as currently constructed is not going to hang any banners anytime soon (not even a division champ banner like Canada’s finest). We can deplore the idea of tanking and beg the NBA to change the system all we want. But for now, this system is all we’ve got and for Sacramento, that means a 35-win season is worse than a 20-win campaign.

Final Prediction

35-47, 3rd in the Pacific Division, 12th in the Western Conference. No playoffs and the right to 11 of 1,000 combinations in the lottery